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[lastpost] => 2783491 比特币暴跌导致杠杆多头头寸在短短一小时内蒸发近10亿美元。（转） 1763744139 右耳
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比特币减半、比特币ETF获批、美联储降息这三件事被越来越多人
( M6 o0 Z6 _8 C, d* P
9 h& g; @) N# q9 m认为推动加密牛市的发动机。毫无疑问，比特币正在进入宏观金融世界，( g0 X# e0 K8 P
/ p. \+ ^& y# a- h' z9 q9 A而传统金融大门向比特币彻底打开，迎接比特币的则是继承上一代财富
5 Q1 v5 A9 I& J. Y4 v
" S+ }; X* V# P9 j9 \, `* i% \) U的千禧一代。5 r, M0 D, k5 S( Z9 r' G1 P" ~5 J
从比特币减半周期维度看，目前比特币确实已经进入新阶段。根据PlanB- N+ d$ N% ]4 q, ~% s- X
: W7 ^- ?' v" _( }# P的S2F模型看，目前，比特币已经进入”减半前 6 个月 – 减半后 18 个月“
' V: M- i4 ~* U7 @6 N/ y) U0 N! V* w9 M4 S" i6 W7 v) f2 x
时期，在这个阶段，买入并持有的收益很好。除了比特币减半临近，加
- t" e& w1 C. J
/ R# ?% k6 p2 E1 X4 z密资产监管合规之路出现重要转折点，比特币ETF推出似也呼之欲出。据6 L8 @0 G1 [' H% Z
% m6 p$ Q- E q, F4 J3 b/ K《比推》报道，2023年8月，法庭文件显示，华盛顿一个由三名法官组成- z6 Q v" m. F# U: F" V
* }9 s8 e1 E4 k, R& g* c
的上诉小组推翻了美国证交会（SEC）阻止灰度 ETF 的决定。据《比推》* n. a5 d, v, v1 M9 O
7 C! W1 X& E6 H. e1 R- C" \$ Q
报道，在Ripple案中，10 月 3 日，法官Torres 驳回了 SEC的上诉请求；# P8 z5 k: W5 G5 t
- m6 b% |1 G, F$ a% P10月19日，灰度在X平台发文表示已提交了S-3表格，作为将GBTC转换为
; Q- l, z" X% j' _
0 ~) ~) a# x" }1 Y: sETF的努力的一部分。” 从近期美联储谈话看，美联储降息也基本确定。
' B: P9 J2 b: m, N4 W$ R4 v, ?5 K3 E
据《比推》报道，美联储主席鲍威尔近日在新闻发布会上明确表达：降/ g) ?2 B- h% p
. {; H& X; P8 ?# g+ \$ Z6 d( V息已经进入决策视野，决策者正在思考、讨论合适降息合适。' _' N) V# \& _7 u# L6 Y
4 O' E) c- C8 U" e, ]6 l* U与巨大利好预期相对应的则是，千禧一代一边继承财富，一边拥抱加密+ F" Q( {. F; Y
# ~) {/ a3 z# B" e4 Y; o5 U世界。据Galaxy研报显示：千禧一代即将迎来有史以来最大规模的财富4 o$ o. C7 ~# L' p2 H* O( O
1 v# i9 n1 P) n9 o* C2 X/ U
传承。尽管婴儿潮一代和更年长的一代只占美国成年人口的三分之一不/ q+ K: L4 |2 V' M
8 r5 w. l$ n$ Z# u8 ~
到，但却共同拥有美国家庭财富的三分之二（96 万亿美元），是千禧一
0 p. _2 g5 [ ` T7 Y& P6 L2 R- k( I1 s
代及更年轻一代财富的 11 倍以上。受到多次经济衰退、高昂的住房成
% d. F4 K( H, \
8 L1 o+ n: ?9 v$ d" k4 |本和沉重的债务负担的影响，这些年轻一代更愿意接受替代性的金融体1 s4 Z, }' u" g
( L/ _+ p+ L# j
系和投资，包括加密货币。许多调查显示，这一代相较父辈，对加密货
. Q8 L" e1 P4 R0 o$ \% \6 B; Q
9 ]4 ]7 }/ k. ^; W币的采用或接受率至少高出 3 倍。估算表明，财富转移的影响可能导致
; H- h/ ?3 D6 Z( x3 R& v: d* G) A
( I8 t% C" e8 z9 K% {4 g4 [未来 20 年内加密市场每天增加 2000 万至 2800 万美元的购买力。财富2 ?0 W! J- r6 Q. t& }
# [3 L2 v3 J6 s* V! `6 K |0 E/权力向年轻一代的人口结构转变是不可避免的，这对加密货币是个好兆头。' ^. Q1 h' y; x' y' b# D& O) U
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