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[lastpost] => 2780060 比特币大户正在抛售，但随着需求减弱，买家寥寥无几。（转） 1764130931 小作文
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/ D1 ^( {4 p9 N1 `" f3 A
加密风投Pantera合伙人Paul Veradettakit在CoinDesk发表2024年六大预测，他认为+ ?% M( X$ Z3 h+ p- S5 w# m
DeFi热潮将会在比特币上复活，迎来DeFi2.0；而在比特币现货ETF的加持下，传统金融也会更频繁与DeFi互动，9 p _, q9 u4 a+ V
衍生出「TradFi-DeFi跨链桥」的项目。
9 q$ d8 u$ e4 n# @一、比特币复兴迎来DeFi2.06 G3 _5 D- Y: p0 s0 k
BTC市占率自年初的38%升至年底的50%，加上铭刻的火热程度，都让BTC再次重回投资者视野。
1 a* Z. j1 k+ l" @6 ZPantera认为BTC明年至少有三个主要催化剂以推动复兴：. }! m! K0 _$ \5 a! B& b
2024年4月第四次减半2 j% r" D. ~* s8 t ~
机构投资者预计将批准多个比特币现货ETF
/ T. F8 w" ]; P9 d可编程功能的强化，包括Ordinals协议及L2及扩容方案(如Stacks和Rootstock)
9 I+ t/ |3 j2 Y- z0 a/ H7 _, m针对第三点，Pantera预测会有更多以太坊DeFi协议移植到比特币上，迎来DeFi2.0。
; l& @$ o& O" b- M# f r" F( N二、链上新应用：代币化社交服务
* y/ [* E, |: w' zfriend.tech等社交应用通过与Twitter账户整合，成功为SocialFi领域衍生出一种新的代币经济模型。! C2 A: A' E) B! @& a$ G
Pantera预期，未来在社交领域会有更多实验，代币化将会发挥关键作用，同质化代币(Fungible Token)能成为忠( t+ ^" N2 @) z$ e# X, |" f
诚度积分的新形式，而NFT则更可能成为个人的社交资料及资源。
, b% x0 T* H e三、传统金融、DeFi互动更频繁
6 w/ z6 Z$ @2 \* }, g" A3 _% P除了预测比特币现货ETF的通过能让机构采用率大幅增加外，Pantera认为机构会进一步寻求代币化的RWA及传统
$ z0 N! |( d* t) s- d金融(TradFi)产品。9 L b6 X+ @/ A8 x7 o4 j. T% \
如同此前BTC以WBTC映射、跨链至以太坊，TradFi资产也会更频繁地与DeFi互动，进而衍生出「TradFi-DeFi跨; b0 Q5 K( {" {. s' r) e, S* I
链桥」的项目。
/ a# V; @& e C* z0 u四、模组化区块链和零知识证明的交叉授粉
7 w4 H5 A# u0 T模组化区块链和零知识证明都在过去一年中取得大幅进展，如近期的Celestia主网、Espresso的Arbitrum协作1 T9 u9 ^# l5 _ |1 \
等。
+ u5 A. R' `1 S' oPantera认为这两种技术的结合在未来会是一个有趣趋势，而在消费者相关的应用中，零知识证明可能会更多应用( e/ |' l8 U0 d# d* o
在身份保护、隐私项目中，例如基于ZK的去中心化数字身份。
6 Y2 v* u; X* _: h3 F五、更多计算密集型应用上链，如AI、DePIN& n9 H% P- F& z1 F2 E
Pantera指出链上费用过高等扩容问题已获得解决，以太坊L2的Gas费用低于0.02美元，Solana则更低了几个位
* p8 b8 J3 n0 S+ o: N数，因此能预计未来一年内，需要大量计算资源的计算密集型应用，在链上运行将变得更加经济可行。
# i7 E4 R1 D/ D' ?0 [8 K% zPantera点名了几个项目：
6 o! I$ T% @/ W2 z2 RHivemapper：去中心化的Google地图
# v$ I$ m6 Y# ]" NBittensor：去中心化机器学习平台
* E4 E2 s% x W6 O4 O K$ gModulus Labs：AI生成NFT艺术品- F) u* H4 T; G3 F0 A
The Graph：链上知识图谱计划
7 C% t' R, q X4 h0 MRealmsverse：Starknet上的链游
9 I2 U; O5 f$ Y8 }7 I3 w; t9 J六、小型公链需专注特定应用
& G& r$ `( ^9 Z2 JPantera最后提到了公链的竞争情况，实际上L1、L2对使用者体验而言并没有太大区别，Solana、Avalanche甚# I/ q: d, G5 d* J7 C0 L3 l( }2 w
至能直接与L2竞争。
& n- ^; ~! E2 q: _/ N3 [也由于性质相同，Ethereum、BNBChain等五大公链就已锁定总TVL的80%。
! k# _7 h; [+ s9 ~7 P, n! O W/ C5 cPantera认为，生态较小的公链必须将精力集中在特定的垂直领域(如社交、游戏、DeFi)以保持优势，从而有效地 f# I* T( i% ] |% O- U4 k4 H
成为「应用链」。
6 E& a H- T, \+ c. D5 h事实上TVL排名前10的L2中，dydx、Loopring、Ronin都已经是专注单一垂直领域的应用链。
7 G/ f4 {4 p% a4 W) l% k; [1 h7 n4 U" T2 K, K s
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