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于任何博彩人士都一样,他们最关心的话题就是如何将手上的资金最大化,如何做到呢?以下的文章,就是为了解答这个问题而撰写的。5 h+ w" S/ R9 y4 N; {( \! {
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\/ ?/ {3 y2 {# Q ~. f! R. b西甲:皇家马德里对西维尔--1.80 3.30 4.10--IBCBET沙巴早盘赔率5 s; n) t& E/ h6 a6 e
; g1 E2 W" _" m8 S, p* V以西维尔近况及交锋记录计算,个人觉得:, s+ f: m) j( {% ~0 ?0 M0 V
0 e, ~! V. {) d+ V$ _8 m( V
皇马获胜的概率有42% 平局的概率只有4% 西维尔获胜的概率有54%
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* C& d/ ~' y2 r1 g9 H很明显,我倾向于西维尔获得胜利,假设我有10,000元,我应该投注多少才合理呢?
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9 ]7 y. S- r0 b/ ~3 `, Y% `6 Y答案是:3916元!(不能多也不能少!!)
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i3 s& E( {. T M4 _以上答案从哪里来?如何做到合理运用您手上的筹码,达到博彩利润的最大化?9 o" { P( P$ u8 W2 v
$ W8 n, z0 m" g2 s% m) J% T
, D& X/ h5 {* D @盈利可能性
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6 i9 h0 f( R6 q对于不少人来说,博彩能盈利的方法无非就是很好的预测能力,神棍一点说,就是未卜先知了。从统计学角度出发,这样的说法有一定的可行性,但绝对不是盈利的全部。我们必须指出,将所有的资金投注到发生机会很低的事件上,是极度愚蠢并且风险很大的。同时,将同样的钱,投注到95%能胜出,但回报只有1%的事件上,依然是傻子行为。5 e3 k" n& j( f3 @
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增值 s" n: N0 o* m% f% H8 y( x
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许多数学家例如约翰凯利(John Kelly)都大力提倡增值理论。增值的意思就是,赔率和你估计博彩获胜机会的比例。明显地,估计部分全在你的掌握内,这也就是博彩的核心价值所在。
3 r" v! m3 m3 w, K! ~5 I- c$ E- _( R7 n" x7 D
你相信曼联有40%的机会战胜阿仙奴,那因此你觉得以下哪个赔率是合理的呢?
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2 ? v7 j. _) m4 ?' ~a) 1.4 b) 3.5 c) 1.67 d) 2.5
2 ?3 B" u* h& M6 W) o8 S* s/ s9 u& w8 m5 G& J# _2 H# a
正确答案是D。假设你在曼联身上投注100元,同时曼联有40%可以赢球,那么
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40%的机会你会收到150元的利润
5 y, c7 Z3 y9 u$ E( [& f1 s5 a60%的机会你会一无所有
4 i+ c" M5 O0 G- |# F& p预计盈利40% x 150 + 60% x -100 = 0
7 K5 M4 N) [/ p/ O v3 `2 |' j由于预期盈利为0,同时你只有40%的机会取胜,那么2.5的赔率就是合理的。6 E0 x' R; [7 a6 E
# m0 o0 b1 H! s j6 p. I
增值只会出现在庄家开出比你预计盈利为高的赔率时候,才能产生。在博彩中,这样的情况也时有出现,因为庄家难以知道你对比赛的理解有多少,你的把握有多大。更重要的是,另外的博彩者有不一样的想法和投注,庄家为了平衡彩池,就必然会调整赔率。类似的情况在时下流行的博彩项目,例如足球,篮球上经常可以见到。资金的投注比例比真正的胜出机会更能影响赔率。# B! Z5 I& e: o# ?
9 E( a; j% Z2 r$ y基于增值的投注
; n; B6 x, l; N* M P' Z; Z- k7 k" \/ z; b5 x) s% g5 R; v* j7 w! u+ `
凯利公式建议,如果你想获利,就需要到更大的彩池进行投注,增值就是你获胜的或然率和现有的赔率之间的比例。
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公式为:A = P - (1 - P )/(O - 1)
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5 E5 n/ [6 N+ u6 wA=博彩资金/ u! {( k% [! Y" ~
P=获胜机会6 \3 k/ |% g/ \7 i0 N
O=总获得回报(包括投注本金)9 _ _5 ~( i0 ?- ?" g
7 o7 W4 I) `/ b# j首先必须注意的是,如果P=1,也就是必胜,那么你就应该将所有家当变卖,马上倾家荡产投注。注意,这个假设只有真的100%必胜才有价值。2 h( ^- c5 e/ G
I1 {/ B* m1 t好的,我们再次回到天朝队的例子,天朝队依然有40%机会获胜,但以下将以不同的赔率计算。
9 Q9 K. i- ]# n6 n( d+ t. r/ U. b6 U0 r; l! ^
1 公平博彩(40%机会获胜,赔率2.5)' h) P w) K: @9 T. r# B5 C1 |
; h" [% U0 k9 Q- s, A$ kA = 0.4 - (0.6)/(1.5)
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]4 b- s: H4 w" _( IA=0
$ R6 {6 |8 E2 M; [) h8 a) a0 j# G, ]" k; N) }3 ]
结论,这里没肉吃,不下注也罢8 t! n$ I& i9 _/ E' X( ?) u
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2 合理增值 (40%机会获胜,赔率3)
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8 G: L. L' A- x+ {# Z, T4 KA= 0.4 - (0.6)/(2)
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, D2 [! l# x- d# A0 `A=0.1) y* h0 l. G( {7 }, b6 Y" O
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结论,将你可投注资金的10%投注入去
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3 负增值 (40%机会获胜,赔率2)5 C4 i7 i" Z" Q6 i/ j1 \
( u) |( c4 s# h" jA= 0.4 - (0.6)/(1)
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A= -0.2 # w l* b. \# l S8 ?3 y7 P- F8 \
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结论,正常人就不要下注了,觉得钱多不如捐给孤儿院或者直接捐给我为好
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第三个例子很有趣,但凯利先生并没有将自己作为受注方的情况归纳入公式,但是否可以将受注的情况也归纳进去呢?那就留给读者自己研究了 |
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