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[体育菠菜心得方法] 合理运用投注金达致利润最大化
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1#
于任何博彩人士都一样,他们最关心的话题就是如何将手上的资金最大化,如何做到呢?以下的文章,就是为了解答这个问题而撰写的。
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3 G* w! ]; L# s西甲:皇家马德里对西维尔--1.80 3.30 4.10--IBCBET沙巴早盘赔率
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以西维尔近况及交锋记录计算,个人觉得:- _& S+ J- ~9 G- Z2 E7 R9 r

( n$ e2 l2 y$ K0 H+ y皇马获胜的概率有42% 平局的概率只有4% 西维尔获胜的概率有54%
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很明显,我倾向于西维尔获得胜利,假设我有10,000元,我应该投注多少才合理呢?' D' D) u$ M' t! g( a- q5 D3 q

: u" I/ k# L9 O# f8 m4 j8 {8 Z# g答案是:3916元!(不能多也不能少!!)! v! Y8 i9 s3 v' y" P; o

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, B0 v$ y3 s6 P' U% A以上答案从哪里来?如何做到合理运用您手上的筹码,达到博彩利润的最大化?+ ?1 U, `1 b& g" `2 V6 O9 {0 {+ |* r

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盈利可能性
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对于不少人来说,博彩能盈利的方法无非就是很好的预测能力,神棍一点说,就是未卜先知了。从统计学角度出发,这样的说法有一定的可行性,但绝对不是盈利的全部。我们必须指出,将所有的资金投注到发生机会很低的事件上,是极度愚蠢并且风险很大的。同时,将同样的钱,投注到95%能胜出,但回报只有1%的事件上,依然是傻子行为。) ^9 K+ Z0 T2 v! S: E" f; M. {
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增值: O8 |$ e/ ~* v+ @% \' }
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许多数学家例如约翰凯利(John Kelly)都大力提倡增值理论。增值的意思就是,赔率和你估计博彩获胜机会的比例。明显地,估计部分全在你的掌握内,这也就是博彩的核心价值所在。
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你相信曼联有40%的机会战胜阿仙奴,那因此你觉得以下哪个赔率是合理的呢?
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a) 1.4   b) 3.5   c) 1.67   d) 2.5 : v" {- l% ^) e' }6 C8 x1 n+ y- ~& D

7 H2 v: f1 p2 q/ s0 S4 u* \5 Q正确答案是D。假设你在曼联身上投注100元,同时曼联有40%可以赢球,那么
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40%的机会你会收到150元的利润9 s, {4 x3 A3 C2 ~2 A% I! C
60%的机会你会一无所有
$ I7 O8 _2 C* J3 {  A0 C预计盈利40% x 150 + 60% x -100 = 0
' G9 _* ^# Y2 U由于预期盈利为0,同时你只有40%的机会取胜,那么2.5的赔率就是合理的。; O9 ]% w8 |* v# w4 l) c/ z1 M8 u( ~

/ L0 y; u' d- l0 @! }增值只会出现在庄家开出比你预计盈利为高的赔率时候,才能产生。在博彩中,这样的情况也时有出现,因为庄家难以知道你对比赛的理解有多少,你的把握有多大。更重要的是,另外的博彩者有不一样的想法和投注,庄家为了平衡彩池,就必然会调整赔率。类似的情况在时下流行的博彩项目,例如足球,篮球上经常可以见到。资金的投注比例比真正的胜出机会更能影响赔率。
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基于增值的投注& A4 h" P# _1 C/ N& c3 `4 h  c

9 @3 W; K8 G6 W3 x$ |凯利公式建议,如果你想获利,就需要到更大的彩池进行投注,增值就是你获胜的或然率和现有的赔率之间的比例。
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公式为:A = P - (1 - P )/(O - 1), @1 G% V; T1 v8 T3 I; y

% c1 l  m0 E( f* SA=博彩资金( L1 u$ a# w+ }$ z* B
P=获胜机会
9 @7 e1 M; b; I0 ~6 w9 gO=总获得回报(包括投注本金)
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2 s, ?) Q* o8 I- k8 ~! {9 k首先必须注意的是,如果P=1,也就是必胜,那么你就应该将所有家当变卖,马上倾家荡产投注。注意,这个假设只有真的100%必胜才有价值。$ A$ W+ Q. V+ I% @" d, N$ Z
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好的,我们再次回到天朝队的例子,天朝队依然有40%机会获胜,但以下将以不同的赔率计算。) x/ i% Z2 {- }* r( i1 T# E

0 [# B( P) e5 F8 u  L& u1 公平博彩(40%机会获胜,赔率2.5)
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& D- w( _4 ~& j% EA = 0.4 - (0.6)/(1.5)  U  z; u" t0 _1 f$ ^5 e0 s6 `

: K8 m! C6 G- Q7 g) L" yA=0
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结论,这里没肉吃,不下注也罢
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" p+ L7 r2 K; ^' t2 合理增值 (40%机会获胜,赔率3)8 M* T% D! v& W

# k4 b- E0 N$ t( t& F. z+ AA= 0.4 - (0.6)/(2)9 N% r4 W& p" B( d

% i* ]3 N! m6 ]  m. @A=0.1
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5 ~) E% D$ P: U4 n9 m6 S: c结论,将你可投注资金的10%投注入去
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) X0 U" }6 W% t5 |3 负增值  (40%机会获胜,赔率2)
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A= 0.4 - (0.6)/(1)$ O8 J; c" U4 H- |$ H/ |4 A
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A= -0.2
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结论,正常人就不要下注了,觉得钱多不如捐给孤儿院或者直接捐给我为好" i; w! q6 m) ^9 W2 A  O

9 }* ?% n: }' j5 c% W" f( G第三个例子很有趣,但凯利先生并没有将自己作为受注方的情况归纳入公式,但是否可以将受注的情况也归纳进去呢?那就留给读者自己研究了
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5#
主题回复处广告图案-天策传媒
谢谢楼主的心得分享
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4#
谢谢楼主分享好文章,
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3#
算是分析得非常深刻了!谢谢
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2#
谢谢楼主的分享,楼主辛苦了
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