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小分3种情况:
+ d0 b, R9 q3 y( F/ d- `2 f
, Z$ r& y$ y1 t9 k* D1.闲2张牌8或9点,庄任意牌。
: {4 e6 X6 p# W8 ]. ^& G4 _4 J. M& B; [1 r
2.庄2张牌8或9点,闲非8、9点。$ h* n5 E2 D* g
$ h+ B# t8 t+ j5 X
3.闲2张牌6或7点and庄2张牌6或7点。8 `- ]9 I* n5 n% }6 f
2 {2 r: G, T& \
2张牌8或9点的情况有:
$ u1 b5 J( X( |2 U% A
) H8 i8 b% k3 [, z1+7,1+8,2+6,2+7,3+5,3+6,4+4,4+5,8+10,9+9,9+10
( s0 o Y0 a* ]" n/ X3 n6 V$ k2 Q! T. X2 [3 F. D+ m/ {8 A
1+7,1+8,2+6,2+7,3+5,3+6,4+5的概率计算方法都是:32/416*32/4152 x" i2 i, @5 x/ Q# q
5 H6 \8 G1 K( _7 S7 b6 Q4+4,9+9的概率计算方法都是:32/416*31/415& s x0 l* B& t1 b1 m# x! E
0 p# `3 G8 \' y6 O& N0 {8+10,9+10的概率计算方法都是:32/416*128/4158 F) o- D3 P3 N! _
" J1 W U; a. u, R: m
由此,我们可以计算出,8副牌2张牌出现8或9点的概率为:0.189434662。
! Z% k9 C, k; R! a1 z/ q! i
# A! o5 G( s8 N1 O2 {0 p* R通过同样的计算方法,6或7点的概率与8或9点的概率一样。* S! m5 p" I, o% e3 D( Q
+ l( A/ O* P5 R/ @1 q% C5 Z: R+ [
那么我们可以得出; G6 i; S" a7 P/ n
, p, `& i# f( N1.闲2张牌8或9点,庄任意牌的概率=0.189434662
9 Z% x( U$ B4 T9 B- M
" i! l) U, [, \& J$ B+ J6 q2.庄2张牌8或9点,闲非8、9点的概率=0.189434662*(1-0.189434662)=0.153549171 3 v3 }" ?+ Z$ g2 O: n4 i( i
0 g0 ~. d' j1 v- L7 S5 Q' |2 ?6 e& A L
3.闲2张牌6或7点and庄2张牌6或7点=0.189434662*0.189434662=0.035885491
! K! ~! J; z2 n7 d4 I }8 Q; i) l$ l6 @; `" z& ^
所以最后得出初始状态下,小的概率=0.189434662+0.153549171+0.035885491=0.378869323/ p" }8 y- y3 Z
" i4 R2 f/ N1 O6 F/ _; @6 N6 S百家乐非小即大,所以大的概率=1-0.378869323=0.621130677
. I$ D. N8 @5 L: C3 E. Z |
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方法最后一段话觉得是有道理的,但是在我面前就难以实现,毕竟运气太差了。 |
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