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[lastpost] => 2783535 比特币确认死亡交叉，熊市信号加剧（转） 1763770127 sunnyclare001
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比特币减半、比特币ETF获批、美联储降息这三件事被越来越多人
/ F0 m( x% [/ p" ~7 L5 e& @4 q) m- t) c9 ~# r! W+ p' d
认为推动加密牛市的发动机。毫无疑问，比特币正在进入宏观金融世界，0 l& w# x; s" {$ O. l
. M5 q7 o0 N7 f2 t( i而传统金融大门向比特币彻底打开，迎接比特币的则是继承上一代财富
0 A8 f* B' s' @) @7 K7 r
3 G* y) s" e7 u; _' [3 c. G1 x: V的千禧一代。9 `" \% [: k& c, d9 V% B( M" |
从比特币减半周期维度看，目前比特币确实已经进入新阶段。根据PlanB* s" a+ Q: ~* S7 ]# s
, m" y# w1 L) X# j$ y的S2F模型看，目前，比特币已经进入”减半前 6 个月 – 减半后 18 个月“
( K9 h; \: U+ O0 s0 P* D+ U
$ I4 e, g8 }0 V# g3 @, ^2 \ 时期，在这个阶段，买入并持有的收益很好。除了比特币减半临近，加* S8 c$ Y2 v0 s& @% W3 L3 V. T
. k* |) V- J3 N$ Y' @
密资产监管合规之路出现重要转折点，比特币ETF推出似也呼之欲出。据) K/ h' M* B m& d- p$ u
/ H t! l f$ U- u
《比推》报道，2023年8月，法庭文件显示，华盛顿一个由三名法官组成
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0 h; g9 J) c Q4 T" C" D+ K的上诉小组推翻了美国证交会（SEC）阻止灰度 ETF 的决定。据《比推》
7 o$ ?, M7 x$ D! h5 E y$ ]( u+ e6 U9 U1 r, O7 m! v7 X! V
报道，在Ripple案中，10 月 3 日，法官Torres 驳回了 SEC的上诉请求；
( R9 Y1 ]6 l* D& d/ g8 z5 ]5 X# i) [# Q6 z" f `( D' z
10月19日，灰度在X平台发文表示已提交了S-3表格，作为将GBTC转换为- g' p' d8 I3 k: U* Z* x
* N3 T& A! {' O; |3 NETF的努力的一部分。” 从近期美联储谈话看，美联储降息也基本确定。) v/ q; k( W j" m* Q* W
3 C' P- w9 x% R: i' c) C
据《比推》报道，美联储主席鲍威尔近日在新闻发布会上明确表达：降
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息已经进入决策视野，决策者正在思考、讨论合适降息合适。
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+ B& X1 p6 D9 M& L与巨大利好预期相对应的则是，千禧一代一边继承财富，一边拥抱加密
' d5 O' i0 o6 k
& |3 I9 k, x5 x# [2 J2 Z1 q世界。据Galaxy研报显示：千禧一代即将迎来有史以来最大规模的财富6 Z. m( J: o) i+ r8 I9 ?2 \9 C. E
5 r7 Z4 p+ f# E6 d& S) l) c
传承。尽管婴儿潮一代和更年长的一代只占美国成年人口的三分之一不
' z5 [- U( _0 Z+ x: D9 }
2 h U8 H9 |/ K' T9 {到，但却共同拥有美国家庭财富的三分之二（96 万亿美元），是千禧一
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' ~: h( k0 g- ~$ z6 s }$ q代及更年轻一代财富的 11 倍以上。受到多次经济衰退、高昂的住房成
/ w' \8 ^$ e K6 t# o( h- Y, c9 s$ d% m- t+ k4 F8 N
本和沉重的债务负担的影响，这些年轻一代更愿意接受替代性的金融体
, G+ E" i/ d& t) E2 b7 Z+ F+ `# C7 o0 b) K& V+ f; H; C: Z
系和投资，包括加密货币。许多调查显示，这一代相较父辈，对加密货/ }7 H" ~; o# p9 C9 ~# S
0 _% d h5 U: I. I) K. u) }3 P币的采用或接受率至少高出 3 倍。估算表明，财富转移的影响可能导致
* f4 V& E9 b. I- m2 [* G8 r2 f' R; b& L! }2 x# Y% c% P
未来 20 年内加密市场每天增加 2000 万至 2800 万美元的购买力。财富
5 M8 S; E* c7 }, X; q' n- ~: V( ] C. V" P+ Q6 V4 f; G, j5 s
/权力向年轻一代的人口结构转变是不可避免的，这对加密货币是个好兆头。" Y7 w9 s- ]) [! l3 Y% _
8 {8 u c( }. `- t k* N! z) |3 \- h# _6 h4 O% \6 {7 \
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当前离线
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