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, e+ Q9 i4 U: P' s加密风投Pantera合伙人Paul Veradettakit在CoinDesk发表2024年六大预测，他认为$ C! G Q) [) ]) L4 o$ r
DeFi热潮将会在比特币上复活，迎来DeFi2.0；而在比特币现货ETF的加持下，传统金融也会更频繁与DeFi互动，7 m8 K* q' I- P9 ?, W$ \% t
衍生出「TradFi-DeFi跨链桥」的项目。
T. a) k X9 Z3 u8 p) {. d0 ^一、比特币复兴迎来DeFi2.0
' E: |+ l6 t+ t% X/ @6 n+ M' hBTC市占率自年初的38%升至年底的50%，加上铭刻的火热程度，都让BTC再次重回投资者视野。7 A9 P8 x. b" u' ]& q
Pantera认为BTC明年至少有三个主要催化剂以推动复兴：5 M* A, \. o+ Y/ d
2024年4月第四次减半
: f$ O) W! {: M0 R$ {' \8 a机构投资者预计将批准多个比特币现货ETF0 k. F2 E) y/ }. W, t1 |
可编程功能的强化，包括Ordinals协议及L2及扩容方案(如Stacks和Rootstock)
) B+ ?. D f2 E针对第三点，Pantera预测会有更多以太坊DeFi协议移植到比特币上，迎来DeFi2.0。
% A8 v. S9 Q+ K二、链上新应用：代币化社交服务/ f6 q2 o0 ]4 {9 x" [/ X+ j$ D
friend.tech等社交应用通过与Twitter账户整合，成功为SocialFi领域衍生出一种新的代币经济模型。
* {2 Z8 S) n9 E% X, }, g/ _Pantera预期，未来在社交领域会有更多实验，代币化将会发挥关键作用，同质化代币(Fungible Token)能成为忠/ l. e4 q. k0 g' U* I1 l: D
诚度积分的新形式，而NFT则更可能成为个人的社交资料及资源。
- {& N/ L* @" s- B5 h三、传统金融、DeFi互动更频繁+ j+ H! N+ M6 v, w/ e
除了预测比特币现货ETF的通过能让机构采用率大幅增加外，Pantera认为机构会进一步寻求代币化的RWA及传统
( E5 e8 H# n1 s$ [金融(TradFi)产品。# o- n- U. U5 m/ R" ?' F
如同此前BTC以WBTC映射、跨链至以太坊，TradFi资产也会更频繁地与DeFi互动，进而衍生出「TradFi-DeFi跨9 K5 P$ g0 L( U' Q1 A
链桥」的项目。
/ a$ B t0 U# [# v; ~1 k/ `. \( E( \四、模组化区块链和零知识证明的交叉授粉6 C3 _. @ d# F* N
模组化区块链和零知识证明都在过去一年中取得大幅进展，如近期的Celestia主网、Espresso的Arbitrum协作
" v+ R, k' O/ _9 i# G9 Q等。 R/ @1 M+ D: _- {! d
Pantera认为这两种技术的结合在未来会是一个有趣趋势，而在消费者相关的应用中，零知识证明可能会更多应用2 n+ ~. p+ E ~* l
在身份保护、隐私项目中，例如基于ZK的去中心化数字身份。 ^4 w# [+ k0 [
五、更多计算密集型应用上链，如AI、DePIN1 l5 b7 E' b$ x7 b Q, I/ I5 U* p: R
Pantera指出链上费用过高等扩容问题已获得解决，以太坊L2的Gas费用低于0.02美元，Solana则更低了几个位
% p% \2 ?$ a8 p( v4 v数，因此能预计未来一年内，需要大量计算资源的计算密集型应用，在链上运行将变得更加经济可行。
1 Y3 C9 V% E1 { F6 TPantera点名了几个项目：# _7 {8 R5 i) R% b
Hivemapper：去中心化的Google地图- T7 Y# d) R+ @; d9 t
Bittensor：去中心化机器学习平台
R' z& c. X& l! K/ c) wModulus Labs：AI生成NFT艺术品
8 c8 D3 Y$ G* y; ~The Graph：链上知识图谱计划
: g. {6 W; A4 }6 y5 d4 JRealmsverse：Starknet上的链游! {, n, z$ l& s: }6 J; w
六、小型公链需专注特定应用7 ~$ v8 j8 e( L# ]
Pantera最后提到了公链的竞争情况，实际上L1、L2对使用者体验而言并没有太大区别，Solana、Avalanche甚
9 H4 S9 \9 \& _4 W! D9 U4 f至能直接与L2竞争。4 ^7 m5 g f0 ^0 o* d/ d$ e
也由于性质相同，Ethereum、BNBChain等五大公链就已锁定总TVL的80%。
7 g. e; M; m" d+ `Pantera认为，生态较小的公链必须将精力集中在特定的垂直领域(如社交、游戏、DeFi)以保持优势，从而有效地
- I& |% ?" p* p. g成为「应用链」。) P7 u& W, o* @0 L$ Q
事实上TVL排名前10的L2中，dydx、Loopring、Ronin都已经是专注单一垂直领域的应用链。7 y2 B# I# P7 ?. f% K
! g4 e/ s8 q0 P6 l |
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