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[lastpost] => 2802038 比特币价格跌至9个月低点后,市场情绪转为看跌。(转) 1769791723 人生如赌
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当前离线
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1. 宏观因素影响市场走势, g7 ^# o/ d# O3 i+ i- D$ |! d
. s+ V' {: {( Q2 {; \过去一周市场涨跌主要受宏观经济数据影响,包括美国未来的降息预期、上周的非农数据和失业率,以及本周即将公布的PPI与CPI数据。
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PPI助推反弹:昨晚公布的PPI数据低于市场预期,被认为是近期少见的利好消息。PPI同比上涨3.3%(预期3.5%),核心PPI同比上涨3.5%(预期3.8%),这让市场信心得到了一定恢复。& R" t% i7 V6 K+ T; q3 |$ F
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CPI才是关键:今晚的CPI数据更为重要,市场预期CPI同比为2.9%(前值2.7%),核心CPI预期为3.3%。如果数据能保持在预期或持平的水平,大饼(比特币)可能重回10万美元上方,并延续市场的炒作行情。/ `* \8 j. m" k X( {; _
, j4 A2 ~/ l. T. f1 o( \2. 比特币市场现状与未来预期5 F1 N8 Y; i! Q* ]" _! l p4 z: x
6 H. `; _# [1 b5 T. ]. A当前持仓成本:
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O, Z, j" R! u; A$ l& `; `: o- A机构的平均持仓成本在8.1万美元左右;9 E, ^& H2 ~$ t- q' G' u# T, h
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微策略因早期进场,平均成本约为6.2万美元;# S3 ?' J" L p6 w1 r6 O
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ETF持仓成本约在7万美元上下。( V" x" P# e. s; h( w5 Q4 r2 T( @) j
6 v0 h% V8 `" K. }8 f) Z4 y比特币价值回归:
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市场大部分散户的低价筹码已经交割完毕,当前持币主力成本价在6-8万美元区间。
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随着更多公司和国家效仿萨尔瓦多将比特币纳入战略储备,比特币的流通将越来越少,机构预测其价格有望达到15万甚至20万美元。+ t6 A2 a5 }/ N/ ?$ X) d
4 O- d( G% |6 o' x* ^, i加密资产的国家效应:萨尔瓦多因比特币政策而成为中美洲金融科技中心,吸引了像Tether这样的大型加密公司入驻。% o7 J5 h6 d* b9 J2 p
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3. 市场热点与反弹情况; \* N. n; H: T0 j* d8 s1 x4 w
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- X& P) ]( X" c虽然受到大量抛售的质疑,但以太坊价格总体稳定,汇率回升至0.033。: |; z/ Q, t9 y
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机构普遍认为以太坊本轮高点或达到1万美元。: ?* {5 ~5 Z. A1 L3 c
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尽管ETF持续外流且贝莱德带头抛售,比特币依然维持强势。
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+ D3 a$ d4 w1 @4 n如果今晚CPI数据利好,突破10万美元可能性极大。8 p2 d i; a5 w% Q1 |
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SOL与XRP:
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SOL走势强劲,被认为是AI生态的主导者。摩根大通预计SOL与XRP的ETF即将推出,或吸引150亿美元资金入场。4 z, w* S4 t( V) k
/ o: K4 f. S4 A' l6 [' _XRP走势超强,多次占据韩所榜首,有市场声音预测其价格达到10美元、市值超越以太坊。
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其他热点项目:# `" D( L* H m; q. L% ~
* x" F2 c9 g7 a* p: X7 a涉及ETF或政策的项目如$hbar、$algo、$ada等走势同样强劲。" b9 u/ F/ D( x% n7 Y7 o! l3 Y) Q! r
7 }' T+ Q$ Z( t' y0 x$ P山寨市场近期普遍上涨,市场预计Q1可能迎来牛市爆发。
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4. AI赛道与新兴项目
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+ U7 w# M$ |8 ` w2 AAI领域表现突出,板块总市值达160亿美元,近期涨幅明显。
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蓝筹项目:如$ai16z、$virtual和$aixbt等市值迅速攀升,部分实现翻倍增长。
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新兴项目:正经团队推出的AI项目表现稳健,例如$mates和$sora已获得市场认可。
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$ J( @6 C1 E: c% w0 y6 [; i市场展望
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随着宏观经济环境和政策明朗,加密市场有望迎来更多利好。山寨牛市或在第一季度爆发,AI、主流币、以及新兴应用赛道将继续成为市场焦点。, L6 L) y4 {, j8 w- Y
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当前离线
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当前离线
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当前离线
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当前离线
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当前离线
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当前离线
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