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于任何博彩人士都一样,他们最关心的话题就是如何将手上的资金最大化,如何做到呢?以下的文章,就是为了解答这个问题而撰写的。
; s" |+ { |2 u# b$ @2 K7 v3 y! U5 g5 Y! t B# c, c/ Y, r" m4 F
. r" S; u: g. Y0 M9 [0 ~西甲:皇家马德里对西维尔--1.80 3.30 4.10--IBCBET沙巴早盘赔率9 J! _" \8 A9 C
$ _. f8 Q5 D/ A# r7 Q$ [以西维尔近况及交锋记录计算,个人觉得:
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皇马获胜的概率有42% 平局的概率只有4% 西维尔获胜的概率有54% - y9 \: o" _5 n5 o
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很明显,我倾向于西维尔获得胜利,假设我有10,000元,我应该投注多少才合理呢?
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! S" l& V4 ^1 q, g5 l$ `答案是:3916元!(不能多也不能少!!)# l0 e9 A" v, o$ s/ x' W: I
5 N; y: z' y5 k. k2 N, M5 M9 D8 j7 H4 o; w" v! V* A
以上答案从哪里来?如何做到合理运用您手上的筹码,达到博彩利润的最大化?
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K. Z: j" K. Q! ^7 O4 B% i盈利可能性
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对于不少人来说,博彩能盈利的方法无非就是很好的预测能力,神棍一点说,就是未卜先知了。从统计学角度出发,这样的说法有一定的可行性,但绝对不是盈利的全部。我们必须指出,将所有的资金投注到发生机会很低的事件上,是极度愚蠢并且风险很大的。同时,将同样的钱,投注到95%能胜出,但回报只有1%的事件上,依然是傻子行为。" Z6 G7 r. e1 c
9 f9 J8 x% v8 M$ ?
增值
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9 g+ R/ [4 _: Y2 R0 h许多数学家例如约翰凯利(John Kelly)都大力提倡增值理论。增值的意思就是,赔率和你估计博彩获胜机会的比例。明显地,估计部分全在你的掌握内,这也就是博彩的核心价值所在。
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你相信曼联有40%的机会战胜阿仙奴,那因此你觉得以下哪个赔率是合理的呢?
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a) 1.4 b) 3.5 c) 1.67 d) 2.5
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正确答案是D。假设你在曼联身上投注100元,同时曼联有40%可以赢球,那么4 a7 f( x9 U( ]# |4 F, P
+ h4 L) |) x2 }, J40%的机会你会收到150元的利润- K8 }' |, b) G3 `4 s
60%的机会你会一无所有
- I$ |+ Y& |8 ?3 Z7 z预计盈利40% x 150 + 60% x -100 = 0 1 E4 s; v' W( ~3 e# u6 p+ e
由于预期盈利为0,同时你只有40%的机会取胜,那么2.5的赔率就是合理的。& G8 U* C" E7 y5 l
6 ~$ p; Z# p! ~. G2 S; J, e. y增值只会出现在庄家开出比你预计盈利为高的赔率时候,才能产生。在博彩中,这样的情况也时有出现,因为庄家难以知道你对比赛的理解有多少,你的把握有多大。更重要的是,另外的博彩者有不一样的想法和投注,庄家为了平衡彩池,就必然会调整赔率。类似的情况在时下流行的博彩项目,例如足球,篮球上经常可以见到。资金的投注比例比真正的胜出机会更能影响赔率。
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1 S! ^! Z# _1 \ F基于增值的投注
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凯利公式建议,如果你想获利,就需要到更大的彩池进行投注,增值就是你获胜的或然率和现有的赔率之间的比例。; R( I3 u y4 R/ U
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公式为:A = P - (1 - P )/(O - 1)
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3 d3 l# P8 b5 t( d: `; jA=博彩资金0 h2 `( k N7 v# {( V
P=获胜机会: B. D3 i- f' [& c
O=总获得回报(包括投注本金)0 ?. j' N1 k$ H+ H: h
. h9 G% n2 d7 Z1 y. D% R5 r首先必须注意的是,如果P=1,也就是必胜,那么你就应该将所有家当变卖,马上倾家荡产投注。注意,这个假设只有真的100%必胜才有价值。
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好的,我们再次回到天朝队的例子,天朝队依然有40%机会获胜,但以下将以不同的赔率计算。
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1 q4 ?1 m+ S# j i1 公平博彩(40%机会获胜,赔率2.5)7 w3 u- C& Y0 g0 P3 D+ }
& [' f* r3 R0 m" n" G* T8 h
A = 0.4 - (0.6)/(1.5)
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* k8 D+ s/ U, D; d- ]" x& {# fA=00 D' j, \& b% }* a
% s3 @/ H# {$ \1 ?' g
结论,这里没肉吃,不下注也罢
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2 合理增值 (40%机会获胜,赔率3)
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1 ]9 z' h* R: d( ~. z0 R7 T' C3 @A= 0.4 - (0.6)/(2)' |; i$ X# Y' T
" L4 G i6 r/ g( u" PA=0.1
/ M4 T( X3 ]. m7 p2 t, G
' k( m6 K0 `" ?0 @2 i8 j1 D' V结论,将你可投注资金的10%投注入去
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3 负增值 (40%机会获胜,赔率2)2 l6 e7 X* I2 |" b& K9 E! S& V6 ^! a# E
) [ L8 m0 A6 L- A
A= 0.4 - (0.6)/(1)" d; W3 f- t3 v. a; T2 n& G. {- _- I4 E
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A= -0.2
" X9 U' `; u: I) u. K: l z4 D% G1 _" J
结论,正常人就不要下注了,觉得钱多不如捐给孤儿院或者直接捐给我为好
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* M$ N6 ^ Y& D0 {, J) z) P第三个例子很有趣,但凯利先生并没有将自己作为受注方的情况归纳入公式,但是否可以将受注的情况也归纳进去呢?那就留给读者自己研究了 |
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