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本帖最后由 凯利之王 于 2009-7-13 09:48 编辑
6 j: H' h* J0 B6 y5 `& S; f* f/ a/ y4 p# R- a1 ^9 v! c
5 w0 r- a8 S; X2 n4 {* E, i凯利指数的计算方法： ( O1 m2 a L3 d; F& D k) V. Y, u6 L* v, _% m
1 x- y* P5 n. W" m3 }, z
G3=S*S',G1=B*B',G0=F*F';(S:胜赔，B:平赔，F:负赔,S'欧平均胜率，B'欧平均平率，F'欧平均负率)
" ]) @) Q2 e* p; Y: D什么？对于一家特定的公司，它的主胜的凯利指数G3=S*S'！你选择的公司样本不同，G值就不同，样本大小不同，G值也不同（一般的欧均值都取99家公司，从统计学的意义上来讲，还称不上样本！）这个G带有随意性，大个0.05小个0.08之类的，也只能算做误差，现在要我比较G与0.89哪个大？我大你个0.05怎么了？我小你个0.08又有什么干系? H% P+ \' B9 l U8 T. [
6 B$ m9 j" Q4 n0 w3 F1 K5 D" M! W' }# p* Z) Y2 ]7 H
& t" ]0 @) w! L( u* H% h% U! {9 Z$ |/ G5 m9 `
既然涉及到平均胜率，那么看一下胜率是怎么求出来的：平均主胜率S'=(S1'+S2'+….Sn')/n，S1'是第一家公司的主胜率，S2'是第二家公司的主胜率，以此类推。主胜率S'=r/S(r:赔付率)。赔付率（返还率）又是这样求的：r=1/(1/S+1/B+1/F)，什么？？又做梦了！！返还率是庄家也要到裁判终场哨响才知道的，这样也行？？AC米兰踢亚特兰大，哨响了，投注比固定了，但踢出3，这场返还率可能是150%，踢出1可能是20%，踢出0，可能是5%，结果不同，返还率也不同啊！这里也可以看到，博彩公司不喜欢操控比赛，因为他想操控的只能是这种强弱分明的比赛，但强队踢假球的成本更高，它想操控也操控不了，最好的选择就是烧烧香：天哪，爆个冷吧！
w$ \2 B6 {4 ^- P4 ]; g7 e6 Z/ _5 C5 S: K8 T8 s
4 w0 k( {8 W/ k. ?做下算术了： 2 i( y$ \ W: ~: {8 \" `
+ I, D7 `2 V" v0 r; i. t; ~' L. y! k5 F, M& W+ d
7 H9 S0 @( W, H; \' o. ]) B(1)SSP： 2.22 3.15 3.01 : `4 u/ N9 a2 y W3 e8 }9 n: u' {' u/ N3 @/ k
' d: @% b; n& N! X$ V& i
(2)立博： 2.10 3.25 3.00 . u9 _' S6 K/ ~9 k, w
7 V' ^0 o4 c. x1 `5 j0 W, Q0 X
(3)威廉： 2.20 3.10 2.87 : D' ~# K. v* J, ^* k$ [ t$ r9 G* K5 Q3 E5 f
; W% ~1 r* V. x( Q! c
(4)易胜博：2.25 3.10 2.95 1 \/ ^. `% l# _) {! J% z5 Z m0 H
- U+ {+ l. `) m% ~. _. B. F4 ^, Y+ H) o
我们假设就取这四家公司为某场比赛开出的赔率来计算凯利值
5 `# ?. B3 s3 v% j M" Y1 ]1 E4 J5 F8 F, p$ }' ]( i% c
- e; r% d6 M, ^" a8 W& ~" s% @; `6 ^S1=2.22 B1=3.15 F1=3.01
3 f" h9 t0 r. K% B
: q4 K3 `4 w4 `S2=2.10 B2=3.25 F2=3.00
7 }+ A5 y$ Q% w) H5 W9 M% ^# T/ X4 W2 j% ] s$ S+ \+ i: K" q* N4 e0 S. a
S3=2.20 B3=3.10 F3=2.87 ( s/ I) ?' |: Y* l3 k
9 A' e& q. H7 B1 c9 S5 j* X3 g/ r Q: ]- O
S4=2.25 B14=3.10 F4=2.95 ! ~0 p7 C' v# @. v; y G+ \
% M( Y: m) o2 J( w2 g0 S8 w( d5 ` _0 H- N/ h7 V4 v3 N7 o9 m1 v9 r/ g# {
1/r1=1/S1+1/B1+1/F1=1/2.22+1/3.15+1/3.01 => r1=0.91
z: O: Y$ x% B. n# D
$ M P7 d, Q5 y5 j; c1/r2=1/S2+1/B2+1/F2=1/2.10+1/3.25+1/3.00 => r2=0.90 # t0 ?( P e* X% l
& J w- P7 G" K3 T$ `5 H/ a0 |# r/ W5 E. `# a! ~0 ]3 H: X3 t
1/r3=1/S3+1/B3+1/F3=1/2.20+1/3.10+1/2.87 => r3=0.89 % h8 r* k9 }8 X/ Q5 J' q8 ]) k/ e- T6 N( e. r8 ]$ C$ s, t
" m% s2 f3 q0 [; c9 K
1/r4=1/S4+1/B4+1/F4=1/2.25+1/3.10+1/2.95 => r4=0.90 5 j: D) [, ?6 b: w- k' [
: G+ x9 Y- y- K6 r
% e2 w+ X. n& QS1'=1/(S1*r1)=1/(2.22*0.91)=41 : W# q# m$ g# T `: u: s& L2 S8 U: {
5 Z! T) C q: r9 M- b
类似的计算后，于是： # s3 M- z! s6 q8 s- Z8 M j6 \" R2 v8 q/ n% d0 R& y
/ f5 X5 d @- e: i3 s1 D% U0 t- }" kS1'=41 B1'=29 F1'=30;
* e$ M# b2 w9 J/ `3 r. N2 v2 t: Z
1 A- B8 T: }/ g$ V1 q tS2'=43 B2'=28 F2'=30 3 e- T: x' @% _% l" w5 s# ~! T6 b0 u* }( f" D: F2 v% v
; m' V% T, u, P% O* j( a0 o) @% m" o& c7 i
S3'=40 B3'=29 F3'=31
9 C1 W! ]2 E/ \2 | O2 l6 z5 K/ n5 u, C9 L, h+ }+ O/ i% a$ M6 E, z7 K, U: [- t) P
S4'=40 B4'=29 F4'=31 3 `: f8 y* A8 e4 ]$ `
: B6 y" Y' M2 }4 T/ O0 g4 ~
7 X6 Y6 E" j4 Y6 `* Y* I(注意：3,4两家公司，赔率不同，但它们的胜，平，负率相同了) 8 [+ b0 b& X# U( [. o! L% A0 n; q! w, d2 G. Y- T
* R9 Y/ Q" p9 \1 q; C: b5 M) J% [0 F9 M2 k, l
好：S'=(S1'+S2'+S3'+S4')/4=(41+43+40+40)/4=41 6 @! z: l. G, x5 q" O7 m
) q( ], k9 L T& t
1 b% h; P4 P: q. d! G0 ?B'=(B1'+B2'+B3'+B4')/4=(29+28+29+29)/4=28.75 2 ^# O, y8 c* J6 J, P7 w' U
- r& X0 m0 D+ f; O4 Z7 S2 o/ N, CF'=(F1'+F2'+F3'+F4')/4=(30+30+31+31)/4=30.5 ! r5 k J) l7 n/ Q2 l
% M _$ _% w% E3 b" j+ v$ K( B于是： / s+ X- G$ g6 i& P E8 u9 j! |0 ?
! z/ ^6 G, i# j% x9 E ]' p: I. D7 h. {1 D# N I, {+ K
G31=S1*S'=2.22*41=91.02 ! B$ E, |, X) y+ M% _& g0 a6 K0 D u- t: F
+ D$ n) P# X# M
. ~; u3 p8 e. @1 K. ?+ F; a5 FG11=B1*B'=3.15*28.75=90.56
/ h( G h3 m' W+ H0 l, g2 T+ w, ^5 P$ |3 T. l1 A
G01=F1*F'=3.01*30.5=91.8 2 b6 B# O% q. }" I: W0 ]
$ d7 j( V8 f* |$ H+ J6 o( X
, R5 n. i9 V- I6 _: K当然其它几家公司的凯利值也可以通过同样的方法求得，当然，事实上你不用去求（每场比赛这样求，不累死也气死了），赔率比较网站上都是这样算的。 好，到这里你应该可以知道了，凯利指数是怎么样被扭曲的了，因为除了赔率是真的，其它的都是做梦的时候梦到的（并非是攻击凯利指数，这个，前文和接下来的一比较就可以发现了）。 + J& N& @* n# J/ ]6 \
8 |: A% l3 Y9 e8 b0 O6 C* |* h W0 f7 S7 s3 A2 @. G$ i6 k8 `& c" F( R' F% y# s2 h3 a
通过对多家凯利指数的对比统计分析可以找出,数值变化与赛果之间的微妙关系，在足彩分析投注中能把握更多的冷门机会。 |
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数值变化与赛果之间的微妙关系，在足彩分析投注中能把握更多的冷门机会。 |
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