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本帖最后由 凯利之王 于 2009-7-13 09:48 编辑
3 z9 ]( q% M: [5 P; X* f/ a/ y4 p# R- a1 ^9 v! c6 Y1 z5 R v# H: k; u- O
凯利指数的计算方法： ( O1 m2 a L3 d; F& D k
% D4 M5 n+ T" |2 w: K7 f3 G6 ]5 ?' R# L" L0 r( }
G3=S*S',G1=B*B',G0=F*F';(S:胜赔，B:平赔，F:负赔,S'欧平均胜率，B'欧平均平率，F'欧平均负率)
: V0 X% n8 S/ N% G9 p; [. G什么？对于一家特定的公司，它的主胜的凯利指数G3=S*S'！你选择的公司样本不同，G值就不同，样本大小不同，G值也不同（一般的欧均值都取99家公司，从统计学的意义上来讲，还称不上样本！）这个G带有随意性，大个0.05小个0.08之类的，也只能算做误差，现在要我比较G与0.89哪个大？我大你个0.05怎么了？我小你个0.08又有什么干系? H% P+ \' B9 l U8 T. [
- N+ F& I- F8 _+ ]9 y+ h
. { o. T- e' e6 I& t" ]0 @) w! L( u* H% h
9 |, n4 w+ f; y既然涉及到平均胜率，那么看一下胜率是怎么求出来的：平均主胜率S'=(S1'+S2'+….Sn')/n，S1'是第一家公司的主胜率，S2'是第二家公司的主胜率，以此类推。主胜率S'=r/S(r:赔付率)。赔付率（返还率）又是这样求的：r=1/(1/S+1/B+1/F)，什么？？又做梦了！！返还率是庄家也要到裁判终场哨响才知道的，这样也行？？AC米兰踢亚特兰大，哨响了，投注比固定了，但踢出3，这场返还率可能是150%，踢出1可能是20%，踢出0，可能是5%，结果不同，返还率也不同啊！这里也可以看到，博彩公司不喜欢操控比赛，因为他想操控的只能是这种强弱分明的比赛，但强队踢假球的成本更高，它想操控也操控不了，最好的选择就是烧烧香：天哪，爆个冷吧！
' I4 i* h7 Y, F A7 }7 e6 Z/ _5 C5 S: K8 T8 s
4 ?5 L3 O2 ]: x3 n6 {( L做下算术了： 2 i( y$ \ W: ~: {8 \" ` }4 \. O& D3 n* b2 R$ b& m1 |# ?
; ~' L. y! k5 F, M& W+ d( l4 @! t: m# [/ f, l* b
(1)SSP： 2.22 3.15 3.01 : `4 u/ N9 a2 y W3 e8 }9 n
0 [9 x) ?2 |! t* X$ V( n3 Q' H# Z* g% y
(2)立博： 2.10 3.25 3.00
: D( ?4 u1 W; A% c: Y; g' }, n/ n6 @. `; Y* Y
(3)威廉： 2.20 3.10 2.87 : D' ~# K. v* J, ^* k$ [ t% D) s9 \7 d0 L O4 f/ {
# }" {, J* N+ g1 W9 E(4)易胜博：2.25 3.10 2.95 i) S0 ]& C/ R4 C! o1 b
- U+ {+ l. `) m% ~. _
2 W0 a% _& c( U2 E" J# R( j4 e H3 ?我们假设就取这四家公司为某场比赛开出的赔率来计算凯利值 : z8 h! V1 Y7 |2 U1 k
5 F8 F, p$ }' ]( i% c
/ T6 l4 `! u& i* \1 C3 bS1=2.22 B1=3.15 F1=3.01 0 _! U6 |, I$ P& d; X5 h- _
% A5 o* b; x" Y
S2=2.10 B2=3.25 F2=3.00
: |% x W, z, E; k7 O T p. o% ^# T/ X4 W2 j% ] s
" G8 r0 y7 E: E! _* i+ l, O9 sS3=2.20 B3=3.10 F3=2.87
( a% h, Z* D0 y0 U0 g9 A' e& q. H7 B1 c9 S5 j
7 `# k( R+ n* S5 P; HS4=2.25 B14=3.10 F4=2.95 ! ~0 p7 C' v# @. v; y G+ \# q) o. B; d$ A9 k# P
8 w( d5 ` _0 H- N/ h7 V4 v3 j3 s1 `+ ]* X
1/r1=1/S1+1/B1+1/F1=1/2.22+1/3.15+1/3.01 => r1=0.91
4 f, _8 r; ?- O0 b4 A
! K) H( n! M7 D1 A8 E1/r2=1/S2+1/B2+1/F2=1/2.10+1/3.25+1/3.00 => r2=0.90 # t0 ?( P e* X% l* q8 z& k, q% n* y
3 E& y: F: r5 q- V. j& ] D1/r3=1/S3+1/B3+1/F3=1/2.20+1/3.10+1/2.87 => r3=0.89 % h8 r* k9 }8 X/ Q5 J' q5 K7 f4 e& s( B L$ O# P D; Z
& M' o3 N$ o; n0 G5 `
1/r4=1/S4+1/B4+1/F4=1/2.25+1/3.10+1/2.95 => r4=0.90 9 W, \ w( g9 S% ]! [, U$ P9 a
: G+ x9 Y- y- K6 r
+ b( T; b4 {/ K/ uS1'=1/(S1*r1)=1/(2.22*0.91)=41 : W# q# m$ g# T
3 t0 Z4 s8 d: w7 ^0 V% s# N8 b- y c# o" c) A( K
类似的计算后，于是： # s3 M- z! s6 q8 s- Z8 M j
# O9 Z' Q7 { Z5 y+ r; I# A6 [
% g" a. n. E J/ JS1'=41 B1'=29 F1'=30;
" j9 e: I9 h" d( m2 m' U( \
# j. c+ w1 e: k' y5 MS2'=43 B2'=28 F2'=30 3 e- T: x' @% _% l" w5 s
2 u6 ~. @% @, V- G; r; m' V% T, u, P% O
+ {5 d2 B( B" e' F. U+ ZS3'=40 B3'=29 F3'=31
& Z; S2 s$ f* V5 E: X0 O$ F6 z5 K/ n5 u, C9 L, h+ }+ O/ i% a
9 T0 u+ P3 s4 Q1 G3 AS4'=40 B4'=29 F4'=31 . ]% @# e0 t5 N. w1 i- R8 u
: B6 y" Y' M2 }4 T/ O0 g4 ~
1 k4 {6 F) g* \2 P+ `! M(注意：3,4两家公司，赔率不同，但它们的胜，平，负率相同了) 8 [+ b0 b& X# U( [. o* Z m/ n/ _' _. O
* R9 Y/ Q" p9 \
9 P$ `' ?, c0 d4 W. l2 H3 s ^好：S'=(S1'+S2'+S3'+S4')/4=(41+43+40+40)/4=41
* P6 Q4 G0 |" |2 w% b) q( ], k9 L T& t3 q5 ^$ r6 B9 P8 |/ R
B'=(B1'+B2'+B3'+B4')/4=(29+28+29+29)/4=28.75 " Q8 }2 y9 t1 `
, [" r" K; K k/ P }6 X O" X
F'=(F1'+F2'+F3'+F4')/4=(30+30+31+31)/4=30.5
# P3 I4 c1 G0 i, B/ Y, n9 B3 h* ?8 C3 S; O* m/ C
于是： / s+ X- G$ g6 i& P E8 u9 j! |0 ?
& q0 \3 E1 K' }" K9 E ]' p: I. D7 h. {+ B* S: g+ G7 p# z& A
G31=S1*S'=2.22*41=91.02 ! B$ E, |, X) y+ M: E4 X, a5 a. q" B! z
+ D$ n) P# X# M
3 J; d% e( O; OG11=B1*B'=3.15*28.75=90.56
$ `& C* n% o( D* l4 |5 \. |5 v1 Q; T
/ C# U7 L& ^% b" E, f5 U, s* UG01=F1*F'=3.01*30.5=91.8 2 b6 B# O% q. }" I: W0 ]( [8 m6 K# n# E, ~' ]; c! T
1 ^) s& I5 o' ^1 ]5 {$ s2 }
当然其它几家公司的凯利值也可以通过同样的方法求得，当然，事实上你不用去求（每场比赛这样求，不累死也气死了），赔率比较网站上都是这样算的。 好，到这里你应该可以知道了，凯利指数是怎么样被扭曲的了，因为除了赔率是真的，其它的都是做梦的时候梦到的（并非是攻击凯利指数，这个，前文和接下来的一比较就可以发现了）。 + J& N& @* n# J/ ]6 \7 [& S- K P, T
6 C* |* h W0 f7 S7 s3 A2 @. G$ i% H, w2 c2 m+ U7 e
通过对多家凯利指数的对比统计分析可以找出,数值变化与赛果之间的微妙关系，在足彩分析投注中能把握更多的冷门机会。 |
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数值变化与赛果之间的微妙关系，在足彩分析投注中能把握更多的冷门机会。 |
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