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本帖最后由 凯利之王 于 2009-7-13 09:48 编辑
* J) {3 ?3 ]& K& x) M. p. A1 M* f/ a/ y4 p# R- a1 ^9 v! c' b2 Q X) r: @5 g4 y* r3 i
凯利指数的计算方法： ( O1 m2 a L3 d; F& D k' Q! y; Z z5 B) B! c/ F( o
9 A2 _$ L& U' @8 C6 u
G3=S*S',G1=B*B',G0=F*F';(S:胜赔，B:平赔，F:负赔,S'欧平均胜率，B'欧平均平率，F'欧平均负率): w5 @0 ~! @0 s4 R6 e( c$ b) e) x
什么？对于一家特定的公司，它的主胜的凯利指数G3=S*S'！你选择的公司样本不同，G值就不同，样本大小不同，G值也不同（一般的欧均值都取99家公司，从统计学的意义上来讲，还称不上样本！）这个G带有随意性，大个0.05小个0.08之类的，也只能算做误差，现在要我比较G与0.89哪个大？我大你个0.05怎么了？我小你个0.08又有什么干系? H% P+ \' B9 l U8 T. [
: C0 I$ E9 d, ^9 f6 }+ A" l
9 P! B% J# T% p2 D# [1 R" y, o# E: Q& t" ]0 @) w! L( u* H% h
9 f; E6 _2 L L0 z/ Z+ s既然涉及到平均胜率，那么看一下胜率是怎么求出来的：平均主胜率S'=(S1'+S2'+….Sn')/n，S1'是第一家公司的主胜率，S2'是第二家公司的主胜率，以此类推。主胜率S'=r/S(r:赔付率)。赔付率（返还率）又是这样求的：r=1/(1/S+1/B+1/F)，什么？？又做梦了！！返还率是庄家也要到裁判终场哨响才知道的，这样也行？？AC米兰踢亚特兰大，哨响了，投注比固定了，但踢出3，这场返还率可能是150%，踢出1可能是20%，踢出0，可能是5%，结果不同，返还率也不同啊！这里也可以看到，博彩公司不喜欢操控比赛，因为他想操控的只能是这种强弱分明的比赛，但强队踢假球的成本更高，它想操控也操控不了，最好的选择就是烧烧香：天哪，爆个冷吧！
+ J4 n1 }0 Y: F1 k1 @5 e7 e6 Z/ _5 C5 S: K8 T8 s
4 T8 V3 l! H4 K1 l) i+ }做下算术了： 2 i( y$ \ W: ~: {8 \" `" h* h( x. g$ p; D( ~- U G, O
; ~' L. y! k5 F, M& W+ d6 T! m4 C! X, |# I
(1)SSP： 2.22 3.15 3.01 : `4 u/ N9 a2 y W3 e8 }9 n2 J& H& p7 F6 F: j2 b' ]
5 f- J; y' Z0 X* C
(2)立博： 2.10 3.25 3.00 2 N, q, i# |0 E, y6 Q
$ ~) i" A7 K) A
(3)威廉： 2.20 3.10 2.87 : D' ~# K. v* J, ^* k$ [ t
|! [( X7 R4 S9 y4 C' B4 c
$ e$ D3 d; y8 _7 J(4)易胜博：2.25 3.10 2.95 2 n$ p+ H" h, t1 |" p9 B2 O
- U+ {+ l. `) m% ~. _# N) B; W3 G1 w0 o1 Y- z$ f1 W
我们假设就取这四家公司为某场比赛开出的赔率来计算凯利值
# S* Y4 U1 ` y6 v( w) E# v0 q5 F8 F, p$ }' ]( i% c% \+ W4 w. x n: T% _0 g
S1=2.22 B1=3.15 F1=3.01
! L# \+ p2 U8 K- @2 L: ~8 p8 z
S2=2.10 B2=3.25 F2=3.00
$ h9 \: k4 O2 x( `- X* R% ^# T/ X4 W2 j% ] s
: O6 Y+ E( W3 l. {+ \S3=2.20 B3=3.10 F3=2.87 . s; e! f& J5 _; {; N* G# Y+ S# O8 R
9 A' e& q. H7 B1 c9 S5 j
, w! j9 j c+ q. J3 e! i: RS4=2.25 B14=3.10 F4=2.95 ! ~0 p7 C' v# @. v; y G+ \8 a% t# o( m3 A5 [
8 w( d5 ` _0 H- N/ h7 V4 v
+ a1 V3 b0 r2 h; j4 v# n1/r1=1/S1+1/B1+1/F1=1/2.22+1/3.15+1/3.01 => r1=0.91
: v; \# p% l' h A7 _( g* v0 Z! J z1 Z3 f4 `8 Z) m5 h+ r5 U# q
1/r2=1/S2+1/B2+1/F2=1/2.10+1/3.25+1/3.00 => r2=0.90 # t0 ?( P e* X% l( g8 e6 O- J& A+ A- o
2 u' L, ^3 _( ~. [1/r3=1/S3+1/B3+1/F3=1/2.20+1/3.10+1/2.87 => r3=0.89 % h8 r* k9 }8 X/ Q5 J' q
1 B& ?# n. E2 E& G! w) z
' F9 h& N! C' M! ?$ u- l. o1/r4=1/S4+1/B4+1/F4=1/2.25+1/3.10+1/2.95 => r4=0.90
5 H& ]- r% K$ }" F$ G% C: G+ x9 Y- y- K6 r$ i) h9 n( p6 I! m, \" m, Q0 U
S1'=1/(S1*r1)=1/(2.22*0.91)=41 : W# q# m$ g# T
i5 Y! a4 A5 h8 a. z% c5 M N3 q0 t& T
类似的计算后，于是： # s3 M- z! s6 q8 s- Z8 M j
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5 s& ?3 C; P0 R4 OS1'=41 B1'=29 F1'=30; % Y6 I8 }/ W; D0 f7 w5 a, m G
] ^* f$ [; N) t; a6 S7 N
S2'=43 B2'=28 F2'=30 3 e- T: x' @% _% l" w5 s& C; q' {* u+ K; s9 i! f
; m' V% T, u, P% O, v! K+ q+ |5 F" ] S- a
S3'=40 B3'=29 F3'=31 2 v ?/ M7 O+ O
6 z5 K/ n5 u, C9 L, h+ }+ O/ i% a3 @ ] q7 c: W4 m- J W F$ k' ^
S4'=40 B4'=29 F4'=31
9 ]; T( q: q8 b6 X( L: B6 y" Y' M2 }4 T/ O0 g4 ~3 c- ~% s0 D* Z/ d V! e$ O
(注意：3,4两家公司，赔率不同，但它们的胜，平，负率相同了) 8 [+ b0 b& X# U( [. o o5 Q! T; t8 ^) j1 m) t
* R9 Y/ Q" p9 \
# @, v! e K; X5 z好：S'=(S1'+S2'+S3'+S4')/4=(41+43+40+40)/4=41
" V" c1 U! t3 X* C% x. r) q( ], k9 L T& t: a+ M0 r2 ^6 `3 F+ j: ]
B'=(B1'+B2'+B3'+B4')/4=(29+28+29+29)/4=28.75
0 `& X) I9 H' [# x) ]# ]0 P$ g9 x/ G% m4 F% h0 r
F'=(F1'+F2'+F3'+F4')/4=(30+30+31+31)/4=30.5 0 a* z) j2 Q0 y% {2 u% s
" x8 m' l, z# O6 Y
于是： / s+ X- G$ g6 i& P E8 u9 j! |0 ?; W- J! J' P! I+ Q# u g0 ~
9 E ]' p: I. D7 h. {
! l* k% v* x: g. Z/ W% c+ Z" X8 BG31=S1*S'=2.22*41=91.02 ! B$ E, |, X) y+ M
; e7 g% G6 n! N+ D$ n) P# X# M' r: h. a% `: K' o
G11=B1*B'=3.15*28.75=90.56
$ W( x$ \2 y3 C; a. f) ^
4 O0 Y1 L! E# {4 xG01=F1*F'=3.01*30.5=91.8 2 b6 B# O% q. }" I: W0 ]
# t) G0 u# e, K1 @& d' [# Z/ A7 g% O3 e6 ]5 m
当然其它几家公司的凯利值也可以通过同样的方法求得，当然，事实上你不用去求（每场比赛这样求，不累死也气死了），赔率比较网站上都是这样算的。 好，到这里你应该可以知道了，凯利指数是怎么样被扭曲的了，因为除了赔率是真的，其它的都是做梦的时候梦到的（并非是攻击凯利指数，这个，前文和接下来的一比较就可以发现了）。 + J& N& @* n# J/ ]6 \
4 c, w! @" K8 k1 v9 v) k. [# r( ~6 C* |* h W0 f7 S7 s3 A2 @. G$ i
* y- |. h1 _4 q2 ?9 U7 l5 H通过对多家凯利指数的对比统计分析可以找出,数值变化与赛果之间的微妙关系，在足彩分析投注中能把握更多的冷门机会。 |
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数值变化与赛果之间的微妙关系，在足彩分析投注中能把握更多的冷门机会。 |
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