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本帖最后由 陆安梦 于 2017-12-20 14:29 编辑 4 r3 g9 Q7 a8 u9 y% R
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其实原文标题不是这样的
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这是我看完的心得所下的 说真的很实用 因昨天我玩了40分钟的捕鱼机深深有感!!!
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有一天，一个专业的赌徒遇到了上帝...' z7 z& z& u: e* `, m5 Q$ r
他希望能和上帝来场赌局。3 ]/ s, F! ?/ I2 F
L- D6 `: f3 R; M+ w m, w* \ 「我有无限多的金钱。」上帝说着。$ Q3 a1 b% ?# \8 ~+ ~4 v% `
1 D. [) }% O1 M5 _9 k7 G. V 「无论多久我都能和您赌下去，您可以带走所有您赢到的金钱。」
+ t: V4 g9 @ ^ , ^- O* d0 V7 T% b; R- z
「我只有一个要求，我们赌掷铜板，由您选择正反面。」 「选对了便可以从我这拿走一枚金币，反之我要拿走您一枚金币。」
8 P e3 f: ?' ?$ l. f6 c" E「如同人生一样，您的人生，您自己选择。」
; s. }3 W4 @$ M5 F
7 E' ?5 o! P4 J7 z! d 上帝笑着说完，便把铜板交给赌徒。& x, q& s' n3 k
' Q% ^* W) Z3 ]7 `" f; k8 J! S. S
接过铜板，赌徒凭着过往的经验，便立即察觉 铜板反面的重量比正面稍重，
) e: X; z( f( C V. [因此铜板较容易出现正面。
+ A" L9 p/ h- h( s" l4 u9 ?) K- x长期而言，正面出现的次数会高于反面，较有长期优势。
. x; W+ i1 `" f* W6 y, T因此，赌徒二话不说，掏出身上20枚金币，心中暗自窃喜。
0 |, ^- Y3 w4 Q( e0 i5 l8 ?1 r; m心想赢定了。/ u. P* ~& E; e% x/ |2 o& D% h% L
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没想到开始不到半刻钟，
- s9 q! P% z& q( }# G赌徒已经把20枚金币便已经输个精光。 「应该只是运气不好吧！」) j- [ R5 N$ c9 K5 V a. E; T
' [/ @+ W! a( U8 `
赌徒不甘心，又带了100枚金币来比试，
5 E2 f$ w2 k$ f+ K1 d7 b但过了一整天后却仍输个精光。$ t( Y3 b3 K5 ?. k
; u& V5 o5 ~ M9 ]赌徒百思不得其解，他明明已经占尽优势，为何还会失败?
, |, L: q5 T$ |5 L3 ]( y% b' U他恳请上帝告诉他原因。
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上帝回答道：( e/ A, V+ ]1 [$ M& D, q8 P
「我会赢，只是因为我有 无限的资本。」2 P) Z. R3 O8 x( p# \/ L1 S
「因此，如果时间够长，输光所有的钱会先发生在您身上。」
4 I. i, X* G2 X: k「而不是先发生在我身上。」
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赌徒恍然大悟，7 f& A" Y& A: s; S
原来他穷极一生 追求技巧，寻找赌局中的些微优势，$ `. G5 U- F& }* n$ L
竟然没有准备 充足的资金来得重要！5 x' U" C, O' j4 {9 W$ ?0 N" z* F
「因此，如果您身上带的是一万枚金币，那赢的想必就会是您了。」: {9 n( v- D: W
上帝说完便不见踪影。
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一旦赌局无法再继续下去，拥有再大的优势也没有意义 一枚较容易出现正面的铜板，( J6 |; @- X" ~$ n2 l2 ~
若掷铜板1000次，最后结果可能是正面出现550次，反面出现450次，
5 ]/ `& J2 x, ~5 I/ Q+ W0 E1000次下来，赌徒可以赚到100枚金币，
/ k9 }0 [# ?+ N( n$ X% V. V% M. a对赌徒十分有利。
- H0 U, |& V9 X1 u R0 l6 n, J3 o, w, K" h- a4 m
但要是450次的反面，在一开始就 连续的出现，, s& C2 c2 l7 H9 o
在还没掷到1000次之前，
. s% {6 X* e& f6 |仅有100枚金币的赌徒便会先破产。0 y% m5 Y9 d: r7 t/ x0 ^8 a
% B8 ^% W! {% T- S2 z0 Q, l% @! B6 ] 赌徒拥有运气与勇气，但却没有充足的资本实现获利。+ t. J1 r U* |& c9 k7 r3 I; }
# Z% ]( k9 F2 n' ` 事实上，当资本不足时，即使有任何长期优势都难以发挥。
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市场就像是个金钱无限的上帝，投资就如同和上帝赌掷铜板，6 Z* k. j R) ]2 Q& Z: E
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永远必须准备足够的资本，才有可能真正实现长期的获利喔！ : m) V9 C! R2 b w3 P3 N8 w) d% `/ H
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