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[虚拟币资讯]
币世界余勋6.2 缩表为弥补去年放水 而放水初期低点其实就在5.19两万七 长线以此为据
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在大部分人认为6月的50加息+缩表、基本在5月的下行中、得到有效释放、 3 B6 R8 L/ Z7 x) _7 O& k, ~) K
余勋也不例外、
. c; i c! Z3 K) _其中最关键的是美联储26号纪要、会灵活对待加息。 3 ~, z, w) ]0 |9 _! J( `/ F
是保经济的重要决策！
6 e9 I$ |5 k0 u8 Z2 J9 K& R这其中美股迎来了阶段连涨、大饼也四连阳、
1 Z t: k3 V, R0 w低点26700-32400、
% d: Y) a& R) i反弹近六千点、以太低点反弹近300点。
8 }: `8 c& n. j2 G& z但仅仅在缩表两个交易日、 ( V) o1 \' }8 D( `
大饼回撤幅度达到三千点、以太近200点。 / m+ g2 g' M5 U! n3 ~
涨幅就已回撤过半！ - Z$ V4 h/ `5 r1 f
所以暂时来看，期待的靴子落地效应基本告吹。 3 Y% W; D8 c) l0 {8 X
不是利空没有得到释放、是市场做多情绪无法调动。
; H8 }9 ?, v% T( y7 u ^. |其次、 ' q# W2 v: q! K; w4 S5 Z: V; h
缩表大致会延续至2024年初、
' a) B6 X& E) o每月950亿、直至达到1.5万亿美元、
( ?8 l3 n( Y, @% S1 b7 N8 J等于说、这期间会持续在蓄水池中进行抽水。 ' G' i" ~9 U9 N2 f
美股想大肆上行也是有心无力。
g K& H- \( s/ f- f但回到币圈、 3 j% ?/ ?1 ` j, f# c1 X% q' y2 c
去年牛市因5.19去中心化大跌、
& b. G' q" |: B# z# L" ^7 _在27000附近。美联储大幅度在放水、迎来第二轮周期牛市。 0 I7 Y0 r( ~! T/ t
而现在弥补这个放水漏洞、而行情其实已经在放水底部附近。
`: i. L/ |: j8 x$ P个人认为、在经历了加息初期、中期恐慌、 ' Q5 Z z$ T& j7 M: n" u
缩表虽是实质利空，但终究是缓慢的。 / ^( B4 l' P5 O3 b2 }5 f0 `
对当前的底部、影响有限。
/ N' a" x) x0 E4 H# @( L: n( S W) |最不济、缩表启动至结束、行情依然处于放水初期币圈阶段。也就是当前27000-30000附近。
8 X! J; V; d( U: U7 P9 ?# \所以27000、即是
& u8 X' E# }5 a8 a! V! k去年5.19低点、也是今年5.12（加息50基点+缩表恐慌低点） * o) v# a" W+ [: M0 A
同时还是去年放水初期低点、 - D1 U. p2 \0 s1 _7 e0 D
也会是今年缩表弥补去年放水周期的低点。
( k4 u0 z {; G2 b4 ?& u# `1 {由此得出的结论是、
6 G+ v6 m* ^: I- R, k$ ~加息+缩表等实质利空、市场年度最大创伤、底部就在27000附近、而以太就在1700附近。 4 N5 U/ I% E. L) O2 G
点位不会出现太大偏离。
9 `' z& t; a8 H, @综合以上、
, f3 H# n5 U8 X& |( r美股逐渐消化了加息、也开启缩表缓慢抽水、 ( V; E" F( N4 V3 g
在整个运行过程中、会由初期的恐慌、缓慢下行，逐渐适应、止跌、然后徐徐补涨。
3 Z6 ~1 h8 ?3 V) d2 T$ L% [9 q那操作上、无非缺乏了长线效应、
9 d5 ]* I# _1 P7 q2 h; t/ p4 G1 [抬头大肆上涨、条件匮乏！下行、最大利空由当初的注水点、再到完全调离这些注入资金。低点其实也都在这附近。
' o' P0 _0 T" h. x- v那行情其实还是围绕三万点、进行弱势整理。 / m- g1 T S( D8 [
即难深跌、也难大涨，直至缩表有效、通胀得到控制。 3 f+ R# g& W% `! d+ m9 i
美股适应上行、市场逐步接受开始回暖。 % e! H3 g6 J" K* ?
夜间美股走势平平、虽弱但不跌。 . _# ]* b1 F* F9 b8 D. V8 J5 `
大饼无需追空、给一空间点位、
3 q$ H4 A' H; f: w K逢28000附近、以太1720附近可做短线接多点。 5 q0 d) K% J' n0 M- |
高空需至31700-32000间布局、
2 O7 z/ O1 w2 W. C7 d3 t# @反之、空间不够、进场始终趋于震荡区中轨、
& d& T6 r) T$ z0 r* `得不偿失。
4 m2 I$ @0 n& b @: ~6 C来源：金色财经 |
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