Array
(
[fid] => 6974
[description] => 专注于币圈最新最快资讯，数字货币应用及知识普及
[password] =>
[icon] => b1/common_6974_icon.png
[redirect] =>
[attachextensions] =>
[creditspolicy] => Array
(
[post] => Array
(
[usecustom] => 1
[cycletype] => 1
[cycletime] => 0
[rewardnum] => 5
[extcredits1] => 1
[extcredits2] => 1
[extcredits3] => 0
[extcredits4] => 0
[extcredits5] => 0
[extcredits6] => 0
[extcredits7] => 0
[extcredits8] => 0
[rid] => 1
[fid] => 6974
[rulename] => 发表主题
[action] => post
[fids] => 32,52,67,447,1120,1151,1156,6750,6762,6763,6766,6769,6772,6773,6787,6796,6808,6809,6810,6813,6814,6820,6829,6830,6846,6856,6864,6865,6827,6930,6931,6776,6858,6880,6764,6932,6871,6758,6905,1116,6788,6812,6798,6736,6759,6842,6966,6767,6828,6924,6935,6936,6938,6940,6941,6826,6909,6803,6919,6911,6908,6881,6920,6912,6913,6921,6925,6922,6789,6818,6819,6872,6928,6969,6889,6888,6917,6939,6947,6961,6937,6943,6970,6869,6900,6902,6783,6817,1111,6870,6821,6876,6952,6954,6960,6942,6910,6949,6962,6963,6964,6927,6926,6973,6728,6929,6874,6894,6896,6885,6857,6868,1113,6778,56,6844,6878,6802,6933,6811,6923,6877,6875,6918,6892,6757,6832,6833,6795,6793,6848,6837,6849,6850,6851,6852,6853,6854,6863,6882,6836,6790,6838,6794,6791,6873,555,6934,6958,6944,6945,6907,6779,6886,6950,6904,6956,6862,6957,6855,6955,6959,6914,6965,6971,6972,6953,6976,6824,6815,6891,6866,6979,6977,6765,6903,6948,6980,6981,6983,6799,6982,6951,6984,6975,6895,6845,6879,1121,6974
)
[reply] => Array
(
[usecustom] => 1
[cycletype] => 1
[cycletime] => 0
[rewardnum] => 0
[extcredits1] => 0
[extcredits2] => 1
[extcredits3] => 10
[extcredits4] => 0
[extcredits5] => 0
[extcredits6] => 0
[extcredits7] => 0
[extcredits8] => 0
[rid] => 2
[fid] => 6974
[rulename] => 发表回复
[action] => reply
[fids] => 32,52,67,447,1120,1151,1156,6750,6763,6766,6769,6772,6773,6787,6796,6808,6809,6810,6813,6814,6820,6829,6830,6846,6856,6864,6865,6827,6930,6931,6776,6858,6880,6764,6932,6871,6758,1116,6788,6812,6798,6736,6759,6842,6966,6767,6828,6924,6935,6936,6938,6940,6941,6826,6909,6803,6919,6911,6908,6881,6920,6912,6913,6921,6925,6922,6789,6818,6819,6872,6928,6969,6889,6888,6917,6939,6947,6961,6937,6943,6970,6869,6900,6902,6783,6817,1111,6870,6821,6876,6952,6954,6960,6942,6910,6949,6962,6963,6964,6927,6926,6973,6728,6929,6874,6894,6896,6885,6857,6868,1113,6778,56,6844,6878,6802,6933,6811,6923,6877,6875,6918,6892,6757,6832,6833,6795,6793,6848,6837,6849,6850,6851,6852,6853,6854,6863,6836,6790,6838,6794,6791,6873,555,6934,6958,6944,6945,6907,6779,6886,6950,6904,6956,6862,6957,6855,6955,6959,6914,6965,6971,6972,6953,6976,6824,6815,6891,6866,6979,6977,6765,6903,6948,6980,6981,6983,6799,6982,6951,6984,6975,6895,6845,6879,1121,6974
)
)
[formulaperm] => a:5:{i:0;s:0:"";i:1;s:0:"";s:7:"message";s:0:"";s:5:"medal";N;s:5:"users";s:0:"";}
[moderators] => 实习版主1
[rules] =>
[threadtypes] => Array
(
[required] => 1
[listable] => 1
[prefix] => 1
[types] => Array
(
[1590] => 论坛公告
[1752] => 公司优惠
[1603] => 虚拟币交流
[1753] => 数字钱包
[1754] => 虚拟币存提
[1755] => 交易所
[1655] => 虚拟币资讯
[1756] => 银行卡
[1757] => 第三方支付
[1760] => 币圈大佬
[1758] => 科技前沿
[1759] => 天策嗨聊
[1661] => 入驻合作
)
[icons] => Array
(
[1590] =>
[1752] =>
[1603] =>
[1753] =>
[1754] =>
[1755] =>
[1655] =>
[1756] =>
[1757] =>
[1760] =>
[1758] =>
[1759] =>
[1661] =>
)
[moderators] => Array
(
[1590] => 1
[1752] =>
[1603] =>
[1753] =>
[1754] =>
[1755] =>
[1655] =>
[1756] =>
[1757] =>
[1760] =>
[1758] =>
[1759] => 1
[1661] =>
)
)
[threadsorts] => Array
(
)
[viewperm] => 9 26 22 11 12 13 14 15 27 43 44 60 61 62 63 64 19 31 67 68 69 73 75 76 83 84 87 90 91 92 33 38 57 58 65 66 74 77 79 80 85 86 1 2 3 7 8
[postperm] => 22 11 12 13 14 15 27 43 44 60 61 62 63 64 19 67 68 69 73 75 76 83 84 87 90 91 92 33 38 57 58 65 66 74 77 79 80 85 86 1 2 3
[replyperm] => 26 22 11 12 13 14 15 27 43 44 60 61 62 63 64 19 67 68 69 73 75 76 83 84 87 90 91 92 33 38 57 58 65 66 74 77 79 80 85 86 1 2 3
[getattachperm] => 26 22 11 12 13 14 15 27 43 44 60 61 62 63 64 19 67 68 69 73 75 76 83 84 87 90 91 92 33 38 57 58 65 66 74 77 79 80 85 86 1 2 3
[postattachperm] => 26 22 11 12 13 14 15 27 43 44 60 61 62 63 64 19 67 68 69 73 75 76 83 84 87 90 91 92 33 38 57 58 65 66 74 77 79 80 85 86 1 2 3
[postimageperm] => 26 22 11 12 13 14 15 27 43 44 60 61 62 63 64 19 67 68 69 73 75 76 83 84 87 90 91 92 33 38 57 58 65 66 74 77 79 80 85 86 1 2 3
[spviewperm] =>
[seotitle] =>
[keywords] =>
[seodescription] =>
[supe_pushsetting] =>
[modrecommend] => Array
(
[open] => 0
[num] => 10
[imagenum] => 0
[imagewidth] => 300
[imageheight] => 250
[maxlength] => 0
[cachelife] => 0
[dateline] => 0
)
[threadplugin] => Array
(
)
[replybg] =>
[extra] => a:2:{s:9:"namecolor";s:0:"";s:9:"iconwidth";s:2:"60";}
[jointype] => 0
[gviewperm] => 0
[membernum] => 0
[dateline] => 0
[lastupdate] => 0
[activity] => 0
[founderuid] => 0
[foundername] =>
[banner] =>
[groupnum] => 0
[commentitem] =>
[relatedgroup] =>
[picstyle] => 0
[widthauto] => 0
[noantitheft] => 0
[noforumhidewater] => 0
[noforumrecommend] => 0
[livetid] => 0
[price] => 0
[fup] => 6729
[type] => forum
[name] => 虚拟币讨论大厅
[status] => 1
[displayorder] => 3
[styleid] => 0
[threads] => 30303
[posts] => 491288
[todayposts] => 9
[yesterdayposts] => 171
[rank] => 2
[oldrank] => 2
[lastpost] => 2818931 一位幸运的比特币矿工以1/28000的每日概率赢得了21万美元的区块奖励。（转） 1775493840 垂钓园
[domain] =>
[allowsmilies] => 1
[allowhtml] => 1
[allowbbcode] => 1
[allowimgcode] => 1
[allowmediacode] => 0
[allowanonymous] => 0
[allowpostspecial] => 21
[allowspecialonly] => 0
[allowappend] => 0
[alloweditrules] => 1
[allowfeed] => 0
[allowside] => 0
[recyclebin] => 1
[modnewposts] => 2
[jammer] => 1
[disablewatermark] => 0
[inheritedmod] => 0
[autoclose] => 0
[forumcolumns] => 3
[catforumcolumns] => 0
[threadcaches] => 0
[alloweditpost] => 1
[simple] => 16
[modworks] => 1
[allowglobalstick] => 1
[level] => 0
[commoncredits] => 0
[archive] => 0
[recommend] => 0
[favtimes] => 0
[sharetimes] => 0
[disablethumb] => 0
[disablecollect] => 0
[ismoderator] => 0
[threadtableid] => 0
[allowreply] =>
[allowpost] =>
[allowpostattach] =>
)
[虚拟币资讯]
币世界余勋6.2 缩表为弥补去年放水 而放水初期低点其实就在5.19两万七 长线以此为据
[复制链接]
|
当前离线
经验:
天策币:
活跃币:
策小分:
总在线: 分钟
本月在线: 分钟
|
|
|
在大部分人认为6月的50加息+缩表、基本在5月的下行中、得到有效释放、 : c) D" s4 d' x8 H, a* t
余勋也不例外、
; \# J2 p4 X$ E' u9 t6 A其中最关键的是美联储26号纪要、会灵活对待加息。 - h0 Z6 I$ y! [0 A
是保经济的重要决策！
4 x/ \3 e# z2 G! G' }这其中美股迎来了阶段连涨、大饼也四连阳、
! B' o$ b" I0 }5 S低点26700-32400、
+ o8 T0 B$ _: J反弹近六千点、以太低点反弹近300点。
8 m/ ~: B" ^# h5 w% B( v但仅仅在缩表两个交易日、 % n/ q$ a9 W: b
大饼回撤幅度达到三千点、以太近200点。
* f3 Y' L/ e; M+ C7 X涨幅就已回撤过半！ + w( m$ f0 o* x2 j7 W
所以暂时来看，期待的靴子落地效应基本告吹。
# w/ u* \, j( q. s& X) }不是利空没有得到释放、是市场做多情绪无法调动。
) x8 R: N8 ^3 H& E9 s4 }其次、 $ w' @8 d# g% J
缩表大致会延续至2024年初、
1 L7 M6 ~7 { Y9 q/ v! o每月950亿、直至达到1.5万亿美元、 3 Y2 @, I5 l0 j6 q, A4 r
等于说、这期间会持续在蓄水池中进行抽水。
. A+ Y/ |3 {0 P! p. Q+ ^% ^美股想大肆上行也是有心无力。 5 t+ U* J$ D8 j- ^2 ]) z
但回到币圈、 ' j: a* Z8 ?5 d& K/ t8 x% J
去年牛市因5.19去中心化大跌、
: ~6 a1 B9 ?7 s" o5 t' ^! z在27000附近。美联储大幅度在放水、迎来第二轮周期牛市。 & O6 a! E: b; D
而现在弥补这个放水漏洞、而行情其实已经在放水底部附近。
' P8 A/ T% L$ I- H: y个人认为、在经历了加息初期、中期恐慌、 ! y! h- K1 U* S; D* F' Q; l: E
缩表虽是实质利空，但终究是缓慢的。
8 C" C9 b* u. q! D8 M对当前的底部、影响有限。
& j: U( ]3 m* I, z: l- }2 _& p4 C最不济、缩表启动至结束、行情依然处于放水初期币圈阶段。也就是当前27000-30000附近。
& `9 d7 |6 c1 [" i) p: ^* M/ D所以27000、即是 2 M, T4 w9 c5 |4 f6 z
去年5.19低点、也是今年5.12（加息50基点+缩表恐慌低点）
. j1 N# g, t, `( U同时还是去年放水初期低点、 " p" Q- Q2 v, ~6 w5 \
也会是今年缩表弥补去年放水周期的低点。
. C+ ?: D" M2 P/ o由此得出的结论是、 $ A# P, D% R: Y$ q! c. f
加息+缩表等实质利空、市场年度最大创伤、底部就在27000附近、而以太就在1700附近。 ) _& g+ Q2 s; O% ^2 A! h( P9 h
点位不会出现太大偏离。
1 R1 H& m* s5 j7 B! S/ S综合以上、
- r6 h) V( s( z8 p- E美股逐渐消化了加息、也开启缩表缓慢抽水、
& s& e# s% f# |9 D% l. N3 ^在整个运行过程中、会由初期的恐慌、缓慢下行，逐渐适应、止跌、然后徐徐补涨。
. d: B) c- U1 n( q3 z: p那操作上、无非缺乏了长线效应、 3 k3 w5 v" o. C& Z6 [. X
抬头大肆上涨、条件匮乏！下行、最大利空由当初的注水点、再到完全调离这些注入资金。低点其实也都在这附近。 . n; ~% w" B" w4 f, `! F. p% V
那行情其实还是围绕三万点、进行弱势整理。
* v( i, y& ?) O% P7 A* r! x即难深跌、也难大涨，直至缩表有效、通胀得到控制。 2 w! `5 m8 t$ Z7 k8 u" |
美股适应上行、市场逐步接受开始回暖。 , d2 l' f! G; w: Y* e, ^" h: _
夜间美股走势平平、虽弱但不跌。
, i) J* q Q* b$ u大饼无需追空、给一空间点位、 " L( z- q& F8 z' H( f' N! ^# w" [
逢28000附近、以太1720附近可做短线接多点。
) V1 j8 m% y( ~ E3 @4 C高空需至31700-32000间布局、
2 ?& |' o0 h2 J反之、空间不够、进场始终趋于震荡区中轨、 1 T+ [+ d+ s9 j: U: y! O
得不偿失。 ! z2 u: E: d$ Y$ ~" H! u& \
来源：金色财经 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
