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[虚拟币资讯]
Foresight Ventures市场周报:熊市至暗阶段,机构暴雷清算
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市场观点4 g% _5 _. Q3 d5 u. p$ |5 E
1、宏观流动性
; K& t0 P: x# E3 I9 {货币流动性整体紧缩。如市场所料,美联储为遏制高通胀采取了1994年以来最大力度的加息行动,同时强烈承诺降低通胀。不过鲍威尔也表示,单次75个基点的加息幅度过大,不会成为常规政策。过去一年里的8次美联储决议后,6次美股走高,随后继续创新低。BTC仍然与传统市场相关,但是由于下跌周期里机构的爆雷导致流动性危机,进而进入被动清算,成为市场持续超跌的主因。
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2、链上指标 - n. A7 s" g7 Q$ J4 p( K: `
对最强手进行清洗。BTC小额地址增持,大额地址减持。可见新入场资金持续增加,但大户和机构在减持。囤币党群体的需求仍然太小,无法吃掉目前的卖方抛压。长期持有的BTC也在持续的降低,而这种降低未必是件坏事,从历史数据来看,长期持有者的投降往往意味着阶段性下跌的结束。
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8 ~8 N$ K" ]* |. Y; K3 K$ vBTC勉强维持在变现价格的历史总成本附近(23430)。BTC在30000-40000的价格范围经历了大量的供应易手,然而在20000-27000之间几乎没有交易量,这可能表现为一个没有支撑的高波动性区域。 " i0 w6 J6 Y! B- `5 y$ m

N) B# g c1 h3、BTC长期市场指标
$ v0 p$ K1 Y" G1 ]# v2 F长期趋势指标MVRV-ZScore以市场总成本作为依据,反映市场总体盈利状态。当指标大于6时,是顶部区间;当指标小于2时,是底部区间。当前指标为0.41,已经初步接触到历史大底的绿色区间。绿色区间往往出现在熊市结束之前,并且可以在这种状态下持续一段时间(从2018年的几个月到2015年的1年),直到市场敲定最后的底部。
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4、BTC短期市场指标 9 D$ g# ^ q1 y" `. x6 _$ S. O
期货资金费率:资金费率最近几日保持负费率。费率0.05-0.1%,多头杠杆较多,是市场短期顶部;费率-0.1-0%,空头杠杆较多,是市场短期底部。市场恐慌情绪非常严重,短期底部特征明显。
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期货多空比:2.3,短期市场有继续暴跌可能。多空比数据波动大,参考意义有所削弱。 * V0 Q3 Y4 k! I1 [8 Q5 i6 |" Y
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合约持仓量:本周系统中的投机杠杆下降明显,多头爆仓略多。
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! @4 T+ p( n9 H! n* b5、BTC走势分析
b6 A; x% `6 m2 a随着BTC从悬崖上掉到多年新低的20000附近,市场正在进入此次熊市周期的最深阶段。当前BTC暂时企稳仅仅是因为抛压和抄底资金的博弈,一旦发现反弹结束或者无力后,这些抄底的筹码就会瞬间变成抛压。因此只能等待机构的连环爆雷和链上清算完成,筹码彻底换手之后,再开启新一轮牛熊周期。 ' d T" l1 Z$ L& B, }
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7 u& z- F1 v4 Y: t. S6、板块涨跌幅Top 100 9 @; v' \( R* X6 d& i
本周BTC大幅下跌26%,市场全线下跌。BTC还是处于吸筹状态,而ETH已经直接回到抛售状态,反映当前抄底ETH的信心已经严重不足。近期ETH的极速下跌,是ETH2.0质押解决协议Lido的stETH流动性危机所致。大笔持仓stETH的美国理财平台Celsius陷入用户信任危机;而以SBF,三箭资本为首的机构也开始抛售清算,此举无疑加剧了市场恐慌。 $ U( V, u& ^5 c& X

9 g5 z3 i- p6 |$ d# r1 Q/ m市场数据
4 L$ w5 a; y. t( c: r- W1、公链总锁仓量情况 * \: u' ^3 c! |

`* }& q4 s+ y8 F- @3 ~+ t本周是继LUNA暴雷事件后,再一次单周断崖式下跌,本周TVL下降31.81B,下跌幅度为29.89%,整体TVL水平已下降至21年4月初水平,但是彼时BTC价格为57000美元,整体市场规模仍旧在扩大中。
0 N7 g$ L8 i, e7 ~2、各公链TVL占比情况
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本周主流币下跌幅度较大,单ETH链上TVL占比仅出现轻微下降,下降0.83%至64.11%,而BSC链占比已上升至8.25%,其余各链整体变化较小。
! e p1 P! e* b6 ]3、各链协议锁仓量情况
0 \3 O8 j6 k, b, `- f1)ETH锁仓量情况 5 d9 P, X6 a9 ?& z! `( _3 q

% y6 y* f. Y2 Y, ~! A% }2)BSC锁仓量情况
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9 X" E( K4 ]4 u. |3 |& b3 W3)Tron锁仓量情况
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7 l5 Z8 Z9 T* }8 A" u, I2 y3 B, Q4)Solana锁仓量情况 ( s! z" L: e) S/ W1 H7 m. N0 M
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5)Avalanche锁仓量情况 5 J* F, b$ o7 J+ }! J& W* s6 ^1 e
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6)Polygon锁仓量情况 9 U v% o+ I( Q6 }- Q+ T
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7)Fantom锁仓量情况
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8)本周协议情况总结 : l9 }% Z* O0 L$ d: b9 H& e* a
协议整体均出现较大幅度下跌,出现轻微增长的协议也是短期TVL波动剧烈所致,各链DEX下跌幅度约为32%上下,而借贷协议下跌幅度达到40%附近,短期借贷协议下降更为严重。 5 A( I- i9 h; C9 E6 b7 P
4、ETH Gas fee历史情况
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当前链上转账费用约为$1.37,Uniswap交易费用约为$4.65,Opensea的交易费用约为$5.1,受行情大跌影响,链上活跃度也再次回到底部区间。
) M, U- z3 g4 l7 x, Q; i5、NFT市场数据变化 0 x9 e1 `2 |" c$ f% I
NFT指数市值
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0 ~! F+ c o2 C2 Z4 RNFT市场交易概览 6 G. Q5 X/ D; _. b& m. i
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NFT“聪明的钱”购买排序 + k1 V( p' Z8 v% ^
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NFT市场进一步下跌,并且受到ETH暴跌影响,从年初计算的美元计价金额已下跌73%;短期内也未出现较好的活跃项目,当前活跃在交易量排行榜前几位的均是老牌头部项目,而以Opensea、X2Y2和Magic Eden为首的三家NFT交易市场交易量已下跌至一周前一半以下的水平。 ; m! B+ i! `! t7 B, V3 Z
项目最新融资情况
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9 m3 M: T x3 t- @6 L免责声明: Foresight Ventures所有文章均不作为投资建议。投资有风险,请评估个人风险承受能力,审慎做出投资决策。 来源:金色财经 |
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