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小分3种情况:5 g6 Q; T$ S) d2 \( a8 c
, Z5 w, h% N; {2 ^1.闲2张牌8或9点,庄任意牌。
/ l( m4 M+ M0 t r" S2 _' W# ^ f% ]+ I7 y
2.庄2张牌8或9点,闲非8、9点。
- {# F8 M( ^3 E" o. u3 Z
D/ n2 z2 R4 Q0 |9 y5 @1 I3.闲2张牌6或7点and庄2张牌6或7点。
" ^4 W, S# p2 J* q
" m$ j% w2 L& s; w2张牌8或9点的情况有:
6 ?6 X9 q& K% K8 |! X0 c% p3 B: ^* D
1+7,1+8,2+6,2+7,3+5,3+6,4+4,4+5,8+10,9+9,9+10
3 l! B/ R! R+ C. I+ u( O, W# C% w& h. E+ j8 L, A, r) `
1+7,1+8,2+6,2+7,3+5,3+6,4+5的概率计算方法都是:32/416*32/415- L+ F( [* S$ R3 g7 R$ S
$ h7 ?( q$ b& ]( _8 w9 k* R4+4,9+9的概率计算方法都是:32/416*31/415* O3 F, v ] s6 A, q: D5 ?
4 o; v+ u4 N( `3 y1 `) B4 Y
8+10,9+10的概率计算方法都是:32/416*128/415( J- A4 N }% G% S
- M5 w( S8 {8 d
由此,我们可以计算出,8副牌2张牌出现8或9点的概率为:0.189434662。
% H) ~5 h9 X. y+ z9 X& g+ @2 C- c2 f# A" _- ]$ y
通过同样的计算方法,6或7点的概率与8或9点的概率一样。
' [- e/ T% A# f" c0 v; y' t( T1 n
那么我们可以得出' r: J! y6 I: \; d
. f% E! a$ f! M0 ~. t! c1.闲2张牌8或9点,庄任意牌的概率=0.189434662
$ J. h: s, t! \ k7 D
# k! |' i& o0 e. e( S2.庄2张牌8或9点,闲非8、9点的概率=0.189434662*(1-0.189434662)=0.153549171 4 L% C2 Z b- ^& z6 ^% U% o
r$ X7 [0 i, E% P3 o) m
3.闲2张牌6或7点and庄2张牌6或7点=0.189434662*0.189434662=0.035885491' u; f, |# z/ E$ s% ^
' I; ~7 e) N* N; @4 e
所以最后得出初始状态下,小的概率=0.189434662+0.153549171+0.035885491=0.3788693231 f1 h7 b4 I6 c
/ j. i5 L" J8 {百家乐非小即大,所以大的概率=1-0.378869323=0.621130677
( }$ D$ P1 Y: E6 ]. a |
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方法最后一段话觉得是有道理的,但是在我面前就难以实现,毕竟运气太差了。 |
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