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小分3种情况:
- v# A# j2 `0 T) T. \
9 t: s# q! v5 @* i1.闲2张牌8或9点,庄任意牌。% h: f1 }$ x9 o4 C4 N# n
. W" H0 G& x x: Q
2.庄2张牌8或9点,闲非8、9点。
# A$ t# q& G' q' j$ h+ b' C! o7 l# j( _
3.闲2张牌6或7点and庄2张牌6或7点。
# F4 A0 g% ^9 n; A( O& E5 m& R1 J( e3 d/ \# c
2张牌8或9点的情况有:7 `* s9 L. S6 l" A1 d
9 l" R1 y" _( Y* H( Q1 M' t
1+7,1+8,2+6,2+7,3+5,3+6,4+4,4+5,8+10,9+9,9+10
1 ?. d! M, ^7 V, O1 t; ?# @) K4 v: e. W |, g: Q) W
1+7,1+8,2+6,2+7,3+5,3+6,4+5的概率计算方法都是:32/416*32/415
. [0 l X" ~' O) A3 S: ^! ?3 Z. E; w0 ^3 x5 U
4+4,9+9的概率计算方法都是:32/416*31/415
$ }9 r H/ ]2 X- M \6 i
( F) g& V6 ^1 D3 q( c0 t/ b/ Y7 W8+10,9+10的概率计算方法都是:32/416*128/415( O( P6 {0 b) v) x$ P) D! V
, ~. A$ z/ q( C7 {) j( s
由此,我们可以计算出,8副牌2张牌出现8或9点的概率为:0.189434662。
" m4 W( I0 E% R$ t! B9 h! z3 \, H1 I( K9 E+ A$ r. d" {
通过同样的计算方法,6或7点的概率与8或9点的概率一样。
z& y6 _2 N( v( m! ?/ w, X* _* W" N
那么我们可以得出, M) K9 L5 A( y1 E) D! ?$ a4 N, k
' T. e+ T- J2 l' R* ^
1.闲2张牌8或9点,庄任意牌的概率=0.189434662+ w7 N; N6 d0 V1 O- x/ {( f
' Q0 b2 C8 r* w6 h' g, L! {; o% K' y. u2.庄2张牌8或9点,闲非8、9点的概率=0.189434662*(1-0.189434662)=0.153549171 9 q$ D" e1 G* r# u M+ C
: f7 P3 \% u( }) F7 d a
3.闲2张牌6或7点and庄2张牌6或7点=0.189434662*0.189434662=0.035885491; e# }- B3 T9 r1 j5 I
: D- x3 u9 ^2 v* X所以最后得出初始状态下,小的概率=0.189434662+0.153549171+0.035885491=0.378869323$ _+ `& O5 _5 ]7 Z d2 l
5 K( Y; t$ @2 I3 G2 P4 M百家乐非小即大,所以大的概率=1-0.378869323=0.621130677, q/ k& L- I+ o3 Q4 ]
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方法最后一段话觉得是有道理的,但是在我面前就难以实现,毕竟运气太差了。 |
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