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[lastpost] => 2782890 不太稳定的稳定币们（转） 1763576114 caoch
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比特币减半、比特币ETF获批、美联储降息这三件事被越来越多人" L' N$ K8 g3 s% T& U# C9 W/ k1 R
+ T3 a, p0 g! i Q2 a
认为推动加密牛市的发动机。毫无疑问，比特币正在进入宏观金融世界，; v* O' i F7 }8 F# ]/ E6 z4 p
& e. w, X7 Q q5 `0 }而传统金融大门向比特币彻底打开，迎接比特币的则是继承上一代财富
+ `. R- F% m& s; Y3 w, p8 q \% z, z6 e( ]/ _& J- f ^
的千禧一代。
4 U/ t y- v' {8 y, l, s2 |从比特币减半周期维度看，目前比特币确实已经进入新阶段。根据PlanB1 |. h! o: G# F& u2 v$ f
|$ \( |+ K& k
的S2F模型看，目前，比特币已经进入”减半前 6 个月 – 减半后 18 个月“
# ?# N# W1 z1 ?' _
/ \5 F( D% R6 \* s) d) @ 时期，在这个阶段，买入并持有的收益很好。除了比特币减半临近，加
" Z# m5 f8 ]% V+ p8 {3 V1 f/ B8 H/ N: D" B( S+ }* B
密资产监管合规之路出现重要转折点，比特币ETF推出似也呼之欲出。据* ~0 N. T8 |. `% o
- y$ C. j1 {& `3 s! X8 d- [8 {《比推》报道，2023年8月，法庭文件显示，华盛顿一个由三名法官组成
/ c: F0 s9 k% H
5 l4 P% s1 @0 Y8 {的上诉小组推翻了美国证交会（SEC）阻止灰度 ETF 的决定。据《比推》
" D8 {- h5 n9 R0 f+ e* }' m: a2 Z0 V* }
. N5 A# S/ ^ q/ ]# O5 ^报道，在Ripple案中，10 月 3 日，法官Torres 驳回了 SEC的上诉请求；* e' c6 R7 v% K" F! P
# m( D" i9 d! ~' W, E10月19日，灰度在X平台发文表示已提交了S-3表格，作为将GBTC转换为- `# K0 T8 {4 E; y7 V7 `
- W* @4 }# {6 o# D: @1 uETF的努力的一部分。” 从近期美联储谈话看，美联储降息也基本确定。& @- N2 G) R' K$ _2 D3 [4 ]; |& ^
; K' r* j2 W l# y! a1 L, ]据《比推》报道，美联储主席鲍威尔近日在新闻发布会上明确表达：降8 `1 j9 n+ ?* n4 Z$ n& h7 @9 t
4 u# d ^1 k p# e息已经进入决策视野，决策者正在思考、讨论合适降息合适。9 U, `- i. s4 M4 w% O0 V" D9 M
% }5 {( b' B r& W9 L, q
与巨大利好预期相对应的则是，千禧一代一边继承财富，一边拥抱加密9 }, [. m4 @* |* J
: I7 |# X- P/ b. U4 J. b2 w( O世界。据Galaxy研报显示：千禧一代即将迎来有史以来最大规模的财富
' W/ G# Z! d/ {$ M* k# ^/ ?# F0 z' g; ~/ L D9 o6 r; b$ ]8 j+ ^4 J; m
传承。尽管婴儿潮一代和更年长的一代只占美国成年人口的三分之一不
! `) N' I9 n6 }( \+ l) t% D) Q; b; P* I
到，但却共同拥有美国家庭财富的三分之二（96 万亿美元），是千禧一 X2 ^9 X+ S" A" a- J2 R! X' A
8 g2 z0 I# _& V# x' H( k8 k
代及更年轻一代财富的 11 倍以上。受到多次经济衰退、高昂的住房成
; x: q2 A2 h4 i% I7 R! }/ B; |' G- r4 L5 h$ M
本和沉重的债务负担的影响，这些年轻一代更愿意接受替代性的金融体$ A1 v* U, F, O3 l) H& O
{" s" F0 n P" Y( P; C2 ^
系和投资，包括加密货币。许多调查显示，这一代相较父辈，对加密货
8 ^. y& [1 V* a8 D% [1 e5 ~" j7 J: F3 `: `' @& @
币的采用或接受率至少高出 3 倍。估算表明，财富转移的影响可能导致& k1 U V3 k# z
* j/ R, Y5 \) F0 M
未来 20 年内加密市场每天增加 2000 万至 2800 万美元的购买力。财富$ p, t! f1 F8 n1 K
& G! ~5 a1 T( }, @# |& H+ ?3 V9 T* N! C
/权力向年轻一代的人口结构转变是不可避免的，这对加密货币是个好兆头。
% }. |1 W2 h) e; T6 {! `0 v7 U9 R: k, w: N* m8 e
9 O) {$ u4 j- e, V% U& E: ^ |
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