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5 {' {6 W2 F# ~% R7 T
加密风投Pantera合伙人Paul Veradettakit在CoinDesk发表2024年六大预测，他认为2 F3 P( x" r. ~/ T& Y0 T: T0 ~$ R# A3 V
DeFi热潮将会在比特币上复活，迎来DeFi2.0；而在比特币现货ETF的加持下，传统金融也会更频繁与DeFi互动，" u: H7 `* ~0 ?4 E6 F N; ^" x
衍生出「TradFi-DeFi跨链桥」的项目。4 W5 K3 c! k3 M6 V; f# M
一、比特币复兴迎来DeFi2.0+ u) D. D. h( e- ^- ^
BTC市占率自年初的38%升至年底的50%，加上铭刻的火热程度，都让BTC再次重回投资者视野。
; X) g S0 [, Z7 E8 e$ M# H/ GPantera认为BTC明年至少有三个主要催化剂以推动复兴：
' k& G* f& z4 j7 s C2024年4月第四次减半& r0 D$ S3 W. J* z, ~9 _2 ]
机构投资者预计将批准多个比特币现货ETF9 h9 [4 m w) {) T- W
可编程功能的强化，包括Ordinals协议及L2及扩容方案(如Stacks和Rootstock): G1 M& v& \7 w, U" A
针对第三点，Pantera预测会有更多以太坊DeFi协议移植到比特币上，迎来DeFi2.0。+ |3 \$ J! p: H d$ W
二、链上新应用：代币化社交服务" G7 b# O3 o6 D9 _3 F O5 Q% Q
friend.tech等社交应用通过与Twitter账户整合，成功为SocialFi领域衍生出一种新的代币经济模型。
5 }5 [9 A* J8 J5 q9 S d5 rPantera预期，未来在社交领域会有更多实验，代币化将会发挥关键作用，同质化代币(Fungible Token)能成为忠! R( [1 V- U: `* P
诚度积分的新形式，而NFT则更可能成为个人的社交资料及资源。; ?7 L0 M/ y9 m9 F0 V+ A6 q% v% i
三、传统金融、DeFi互动更频繁6 V7 n( H; F5 c3 r: g
除了预测比特币现货ETF的通过能让机构采用率大幅增加外，Pantera认为机构会进一步寻求代币化的RWA及传统7 ?# E1 T7 w7 c4 I" O7 [
金融(TradFi)产品。8 s M/ E0 r2 F/ L
如同此前BTC以WBTC映射、跨链至以太坊，TradFi资产也会更频繁地与DeFi互动，进而衍生出「TradFi-DeFi跨$ s. H3 w/ H( g6 e
链桥」的项目。. j3 V0 M6 n& Y4 O
四、模组化区块链和零知识证明的交叉授粉) @2 P+ J$ o |7 f1 u
模组化区块链和零知识证明都在过去一年中取得大幅进展，如近期的Celestia主网、Espresso的Arbitrum协作: B/ Y7 Z, o1 }. M# n7 z: l+ H
等。
8 z& ?+ t& ?% X. z* NPantera认为这两种技术的结合在未来会是一个有趣趋势，而在消费者相关的应用中，零知识证明可能会更多应用3 c: T* y7 Q5 D, x. ]8 `
在身份保护、隐私项目中，例如基于ZK的去中心化数字身份。6 _, _& _+ B2 J
五、更多计算密集型应用上链，如AI、DePIN! C" c9 V4 `4 v
Pantera指出链上费用过高等扩容问题已获得解决，以太坊L2的Gas费用低于0.02美元，Solana则更低了几个位5 f/ n9 E/ U1 A) i; h+ x; Q
数，因此能预计未来一年内，需要大量计算资源的计算密集型应用，在链上运行将变得更加经济可行。
" o8 J. u8 Y+ q5 s! e3 Y, MPantera点名了几个项目：/ ^2 x: q3 g9 X; l3 D& e
Hivemapper：去中心化的Google地图9 V1 \' S m& \8 ^: r
Bittensor：去中心化机器学习平台! \# r: O6 {. K7 F5 j3 |2 @
Modulus Labs：AI生成NFT艺术品
. G" ]! @$ B( ~- [' _$ mThe Graph：链上知识图谱计划" f7 L) v4 N! j8 P9 m) _& T3 X
Realmsverse：Starknet上的链游
" S x& T+ L1 I, T* k3 N5 k8 Q/ Y1 Z六、小型公链需专注特定应用- G. L0 g2 x3 I, C g! |
Pantera最后提到了公链的竞争情况，实际上L1、L2对使用者体验而言并没有太大区别，Solana、Avalanche甚" R* b+ r5 |- D) Q+ K* |0 l
至能直接与L2竞争。
1 G `: x2 W4 X( R, W; R也由于性质相同，Ethereum、BNBChain等五大公链就已锁定总TVL的80%。( ?# H6 Y! L/ g( u1 a$ \: O
Pantera认为，生态较小的公链必须将精力集中在特定的垂直领域(如社交、游戏、DeFi)以保持优势，从而有效地
, I: d; R( F2 n成为「应用链」。
5 L3 ?+ f: l+ ^事实上TVL排名前10的L2中，dydx、Loopring、Ronin都已经是专注单一垂直领域的应用链。5 e* J' M+ _7 k* m& t) ?
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