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[打法交流]
百家乐高手玩家的内功心法：凯利注码法（凯利缆）（转载）
[复制链接]
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有许多会算优势的博友问我，如何控制震荡？要准备多少资金？要下多大的注？要多久能回报？
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会问我这些问题，表示功力不到家！只会算EV确不会管理资金，只知其然却不知其所以然。* m* q. ]5 Z) ]
# A! t1 h& Z; L o) d" b4 |其实优势玩家的资金管理，不是经济学、不是统计学、更不是管理学、而是数学！！！
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首先，我问一个很简单的问题，有什么注码法，能让你就算一直输，也永远不会破产？% \" ^. ?, J; g" L. k& w* F: k+ B' j
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请思考1分钟，再来看下面的答案。
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) s p5 J& i0 w& z答案就是用比例下注，就永远不会破产！
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例如：我每次都下我总资金的10%，如果输了，我就下剩下的90%的10%，那么不管我输多少次，我始终都留下我上次下注之前的90%，永远都还会剩下钱。
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现在的问题就是，到底要下总资本的百分之几最好？
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) [" b( f/ v5 p5 L/ v+ A/ k: W/ o我们先来看一个0和的游戏。9 ?3 w6 z5 Z( x& R0 x
3 p# O7 e5 W2 Q- y% q. W# ] A玩2手，输一次赢一次，我用10%下注，不管先输（剩下90%，再下10%也就是90%*10%=9%）再赢（90%+9%），还是先赢（剩下110%，再下110%的10%=11%）再输（110%-11%）,都是剩下99%，公式是（1+10%）*（1-10%）=99% 损失了1%的本金！9 p) U1 ~: h# `+ Z T1 V g4 i
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玩200手，输100次赢100次，用10%下注，（1+10%）^100 * (1-10%）^100=36.6% 损失了65.4%的本金！玩越多手，输的越多。2 M. U+ J' q) [
- f/ S6 y5 l0 {+ K- s这个实验说明，使用永远不会破产的注码，虽然永远也输不完，但是就算玩一个不输不赢的游戏，也会一直越输越多。/ W8 r$ M; C7 S# b6 A( m" M
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接下来，大家都知道我们玩一个+EV的游戏，赢的会比输的多，+1%的游戏，就是200手里面赢101手输99手的意思，那么如果用我们永远不会破产的注码来打，会不会赚钱呢？
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玩200手，输99次赢101次，用10%下注，（1+10%）^101 * (1-10%）^99=44.7373% 比0和的好点，但是依然不会赢。
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再来看看如果下5%，（1+5%）^101 * (1-5%）^99=86.051% 比下10%好多了。
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如果下1%呢？（1+1%）^101 * (1-1%）^99=101.005% 终于发现能永远不会破产又赚钱的地方了。/ ^- ^ W0 Z3 ~, y0 Z( \' ^: n
( ^5 j- ^ l; g, h但是这真的是最好的吗？我帮大家节省时间，我直接把下注的比例跟获利结果，用表格的形式拉出来。
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下注比例 本金结果5 t& Q& b3 A- m# i2 ~. c% t! B/ i
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0.1% 1.0019029 F& `. v0 w) A# T' O
0 d: h8 P& X9 i
0.2% 1.003606# U4 s3 x3 k# |+ @; h# I8 q
7 w& ]% r9 Q0 m$ \4 }; R0.3% 1.005113
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0.4% 1.006421# e5 B3 a* Y+ I5 c) g: L" u
0 ^! B0 B6 _* i* \
0.5% 1.007528
0 `% m. N/ ^ ]* y3 H4 G8 w$ ~, ` j3 E% G9 q, p
0.6% 1.008435
$ u' f/ }1 m4 b8 E( c- t
8 U9 _# m* F7 i7 a4 f' p* Z0.7% 1.0091426 S$ b& U$ d: r7 C% g
: b Q. ? I% ?1 j
0.8% 1.009646
4 Y" B5 {1 y+ l% c6 e- a G/ G# J0 }8 M; P7 S s
0.9% 1.009949
0 {) g* z! F6 V$ F4 J! N+ ]
: b- F9 o: l8 M' ]1.0% 1.01005
) X! s& B9 `% I1 z* C0 j8 j; x6 }% X2 ~* U' O* s2 J3 v( ^
1.1% 1.009949
+ X9 ]) }; Q9 ^1 G+ _3 z
" W3 N( B* W8 T/ D; O7 i1.2% 1.009646
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& e: I9 q+ ]3 |' Q; x9 a; |1.3% 1.0091426 K4 n, s6 r; Z, ?: K
# u" i* V; J' J3 ^
1.4% 1.008435- D4 a2 G% m7 l' D% y j
3 k2 m, G. e' P8 C% ]# S5 D1.5% 1.007528
& P7 z9 N4 o. H+ S
9 o" f8 V% ~; H9 w" \1.6% 1.00642
0 q" Y" ^) a% G# @! L
4 |( j2 H9 X: P! m$ O8 r+ C1.7% 1.005112/ f& W8 b5 k6 P* P% F/ y- l- A
0 ^; d) b4 n# E. N1.8% 1.003605
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$ L+ F4 q! i6 I* T5 ^$ F. e1.9% 1.00199 `9 L/ \9 _5 {. C- c6 ^' R J
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2.0% 0.999997
, f T5 k8 e: D: W. l* f% r
6 D2 T- ~6 f6 G, X" k' l2.1% 0.997899
2 p4 y$ Q) ?' V: c
; ?* d8 l* H1 ]# i5 J) B5 T3 L2.2% 0.995605
: L( g! o2 \% s9 K7 k8 F! E
8 |6 Y! n3 k k% p3 ^ A2.3% 0.993118. u/ M3 F! f& O ^. O* G' O: N2 R
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2.4% 0.990439 f4 R. b% |" x3 ^, h5 T
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2.5% 0.987569, A" M. x3 O* K/ Q
, H* U0 H, A, Z6 u% A& o2.6% 0.98451
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. | x* U' W3 v, J% Y2.7% 0.981264
4 ]1 W! s) P3 t; p$ ^5 E6 u* p% J- t. C7 h! o# v
2.8% 0.977833
8 g: c) p$ M* g: v4 T1 c
$ m3 B& K0 }% G- ?1 T+ L0 g0 K2.9% 0.974219) t# |0 n& T9 Q: ?$ K) ?
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3.0% 0.9704247 S/ X( c# h7 u7 c
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从上表可以得到一些结论：* e+ p X/ A; u+ B1 v4 ?! t
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1. 面对赢101次输99次EV+1%的游戏来说，下注在0%以上2%以下，才会有获利$ t v k2 E2 f4 ]0 w
, D! L1 k0 o" Q* _2 x; _; O5 B: e2 Z2. 面对赢101次输99次EV+1%的游戏来说，注码在1%的时候，得到的获利是最高的，下的越小赚的越少，下的越大也赚的越少！0 i/ B7 f9 V. r+ \$ f* D
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3. 每一次下注之后都要精准的计算剩下的资金，严格按照比例下注，过多过少只要不够准确，都会降低收益，名副其实的刀尖上的舞蹈
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凯利这个人，其实只是按照这个原理去推演，发现EV+1%的时候要下本金的1%、EV+2%的时候要下本金的2%...
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! X+ T2 a" M4 R( B" Q然而凯利所计算的只是一赔一的条件，其实根据不同赌戏的赔率不同，其实不尽然都是跟EV相同的，但是如果各位自己制作一个简单的excel表，那么自己也可以拉的出来最适合的注码比例。
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t4 B" w' d: {7 A$ `以上，希望我能对不懂下注策略的初学优势的博友玩家有所帮助。
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