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[lastpost] => 2797658 比特币现金在2025年上涨30%后趋于降温,零知识证明的公平代币发行计划(转) 1768538753 垂钓园
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1. 宏观因素影响市场走势9 d6 }4 B. ?1 d( A d, O, S
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过去一周市场涨跌主要受宏观经济数据影响,包括美国未来的降息预期、上周的非农数据和失业率,以及本周即将公布的PPI与CPI数据。6 G% s! f* |/ ?! ?2 d6 q. b
8 o& ]) K+ I+ J8 s U! g) uPPI助推反弹:昨晚公布的PPI数据低于市场预期,被认为是近期少见的利好消息。PPI同比上涨3.3%(预期3.5%),核心PPI同比上涨3.5%(预期3.8%),这让市场信心得到了一定恢复。* T3 | c* o7 v
' d( C5 [3 J' `CPI才是关键:今晚的CPI数据更为重要,市场预期CPI同比为2.9%(前值2.7%),核心CPI预期为3.3%。如果数据能保持在预期或持平的水平,大饼(比特币)可能重回10万美元上方,并延续市场的炒作行情。
$ ]# V! Y( E, n, N- a6 @6 g5 o
: @6 S1 Y) u% M3 I2. 比特币市场现状与未来预期8 Q6 }* u, t' n, d. z. @! ^
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当前持仓成本:
8 C0 O4 f3 \1 d2 y( L. j
@7 g2 L& g2 L机构的平均持仓成本在8.1万美元左右;+ W7 a$ y0 e* a( h7 Y
& `% O& Z2 ^- R
微策略因早期进场,平均成本约为6.2万美元;8 D! I1 J8 y7 C' b$ d
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ETF持仓成本约在7万美元上下。) `/ y: z: N P+ [7 I4 C& ^1 c2 r
3 Z; M) C0 m! X# _比特币价值回归:
1 @8 Y+ H# n% y3 U1 J, N1 z. n, b8 n0 b. k* N3 ^
市场大部分散户的低价筹码已经交割完毕,当前持币主力成本价在6-8万美元区间。
+ X/ i* M6 L$ S. i0 H& X
( u Q/ |2 Q: a5 b$ |! A9 d随着更多公司和国家效仿萨尔瓦多将比特币纳入战略储备,比特币的流通将越来越少,机构预测其价格有望达到15万甚至20万美元。8 p6 S! p0 u. y3 j5 _3 \6 W9 ]
$ Z. Z; M1 ?9 h9 K; y+ i* Y% j5 P加密资产的国家效应:萨尔瓦多因比特币政策而成为中美洲金融科技中心,吸引了像Tether这样的大型加密公司入驻。5 K$ \' F4 S( W
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3. 市场热点与反弹情况" Q' W+ a9 D; e% ?6 G2 o
6 D0 M1 b, p* q8 a3 V5 q- I T( E+ lETH:7 Q0 m$ d/ J$ M Q$ z
3 R1 ?# l I- o( ?/ [. Y虽然受到大量抛售的质疑,但以太坊价格总体稳定,汇率回升至0.033。# d4 j, G& |+ u/ _/ }
6 Z2 y. _' y1 {+ v- Y9 ^机构普遍认为以太坊本轮高点或达到1万美元。! P, ~3 W& G2 ]8 A: d6 J0 l
8 t$ A1 x# [+ V0 Z J$ j- ^BTC:8 y9 t+ x' ~+ T- M3 U$ z2 P3 ?7 S0 z
7 U" l5 t7 y( q( |; C" K, j6 E尽管ETF持续外流且贝莱德带头抛售,比特币依然维持强势。
5 d+ l* c- _+ d& D; r, y& `5 v* x7 J7 F6 U9 z
如果今晚CPI数据利好,突破10万美元可能性极大。& k3 Y' z5 D' P4 m7 u
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SOL与XRP:2 }. @! ~" c+ i, D N) ^: [) r
6 z1 c% h p( t* MSOL走势强劲,被认为是AI生态的主导者。摩根大通预计SOL与XRP的ETF即将推出,或吸引150亿美元资金入场。9 e/ Y( C4 r/ T- Z7 V9 o& h! m
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XRP走势超强,多次占据韩所榜首,有市场声音预测其价格达到10美元、市值超越以太坊。- M( x% D( N/ G' E4 ^2 p
: v. R6 j& F+ ?其他热点项目:
$ _& i- u3 h5 Z* R& v: O# d4 |" u+ ?( r7 G7 v3 E# h2 \/ y
涉及ETF或政策的项目如$hbar、$algo、$ada等走势同样强劲。0 B; W5 E; Y: a7 ^3 e1 L/ L8 {: q6 i+ ?
3 A: }9 K' s( ]! g9 F山寨市场近期普遍上涨,市场预计Q1可能迎来牛市爆发。* m' a* M' k( m: j
% {: Q6 c) v! Y2 e
4. AI赛道与新兴项目
8 X2 y( O1 ?% `. a- k8 \8 q" V+ p1 g/ j& ~0 v
AI领域表现突出,板块总市值达160亿美元,近期涨幅明显。5 L4 c3 h0 [, ]. D, o. e" k
4 q* }$ i& G! I$ y
蓝筹项目:如$ai16z、$virtual和$aixbt等市值迅速攀升,部分实现翻倍增长。
: A* _* r! ^# i9 K3 L1 x+ f1 Q6 v2 M" ^; x
新兴项目:正经团队推出的AI项目表现稳健,例如$mates和$sora已获得市场认可。
9 {' p# C4 _3 v `& j/ ]* r7 { l2 F+ g# C+ y5 o
市场展望
% `2 f. w5 I! b4 s+ X9 W! B/ k4 f& u- X) i8 @; B# A5 Z9 s. v, D
随着宏观经济环境和政策明朗,加密市场有望迎来更多利好。山寨牛市或在第一季度爆发,AI、主流币、以及新兴应用赛道将继续成为市场焦点。1 ~( j6 A' I6 _' R
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