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[lastpost] => 2795348 比特币价格能否在 2026 年 1 月迅速上涨至 10 万美元?(转) 1767854592 人生如赌
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1. 宏观因素影响市场走势6 ^! q K+ U$ x: K. Q5 k
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过去一周市场涨跌主要受宏观经济数据影响,包括美国未来的降息预期、上周的非农数据和失业率,以及本周即将公布的PPI与CPI数据。6 r; l; V' k" h) P) {% I. E/ ~& I
! z( f! I5 a$ Z% b1 _! ]" \PPI助推反弹:昨晚公布的PPI数据低于市场预期,被认为是近期少见的利好消息。PPI同比上涨3.3%(预期3.5%),核心PPI同比上涨3.5%(预期3.8%),这让市场信心得到了一定恢复。
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' E% K: c0 E4 _1 X& g- n/ ]. o2 gCPI才是关键:今晚的CPI数据更为重要,市场预期CPI同比为2.9%(前值2.7%),核心CPI预期为3.3%。如果数据能保持在预期或持平的水平,大饼(比特币)可能重回10万美元上方,并延续市场的炒作行情。
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2. 比特币市场现状与未来预期; P4 }2 p( }# t$ W h
" W8 L5 V1 t- A9 l3 ~$ Q. W4 A当前持仓成本:
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机构的平均持仓成本在8.1万美元左右;
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; p+ _: N- k: u* A) |3 h$ | H微策略因早期进场,平均成本约为6.2万美元;% b% z( N" L* g6 H; s d/ Z/ U
0 b( t+ T7 y# o4 _ETF持仓成本约在7万美元上下。! O' s+ D- V0 \, X
3 {4 r" q; b7 V比特币价值回归:- k8 b3 |1 \0 W# X+ _- K) B
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市场大部分散户的低价筹码已经交割完毕,当前持币主力成本价在6-8万美元区间。/ o) A8 ~8 N# H5 G+ N. x, y! }0 }' }$ N( d
. ^2 U8 {6 {3 p! X* \. Y随着更多公司和国家效仿萨尔瓦多将比特币纳入战略储备,比特币的流通将越来越少,机构预测其价格有望达到15万甚至20万美元。
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加密资产的国家效应:萨尔瓦多因比特币政策而成为中美洲金融科技中心,吸引了像Tether这样的大型加密公司入驻。
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3. 市场热点与反弹情况
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虽然受到大量抛售的质疑,但以太坊价格总体稳定,汇率回升至0.033。" u H. M+ e# P( v& ]( {3 \
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机构普遍认为以太坊本轮高点或达到1万美元。! N0 b& H0 g- Z' t* E$ k, [ a
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/ b& a9 L: c/ v! ^ V! W尽管ETF持续外流且贝莱德带头抛售,比特币依然维持强势。& Q" G/ y8 G A7 L
$ t$ r" _+ d3 s4 f" z% B如果今晚CPI数据利好,突破10万美元可能性极大。
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SOL与XRP:% D+ _( j! Y$ N, V# A* F! ^8 m. B
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SOL走势强劲,被认为是AI生态的主导者。摩根大通预计SOL与XRP的ETF即将推出,或吸引150亿美元资金入场。
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% Z5 V* @; [9 e) K/ W5 VXRP走势超强,多次占据韩所榜首,有市场声音预测其价格达到10美元、市值超越以太坊。$ x4 v1 h: t1 D+ o3 r) }
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其他热点项目:
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- \9 g9 O+ P! @6 W: o涉及ETF或政策的项目如$hbar、$algo、$ada等走势同样强劲。5 q6 p. V3 B4 {9 R6 a
, T9 }. O" x3 M x山寨市场近期普遍上涨,市场预计Q1可能迎来牛市爆发。 n: Y$ t' m) ?$ D! U" c8 o( M5 t
3 X1 Q# p+ q1 ?( U( b5 }4. AI赛道与新兴项目- E/ U# x) B# s; A# y7 _. n
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AI领域表现突出,板块总市值达160亿美元,近期涨幅明显。
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蓝筹项目:如$ai16z、$virtual和$aixbt等市值迅速攀升,部分实现翻倍增长。
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新兴项目:正经团队推出的AI项目表现稳健,例如$mates和$sora已获得市场认可。
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3 |" T$ t, b8 u8 W市场展望
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随着宏观经济环境和政策明朗,加密市场有望迎来更多利好。山寨牛市或在第一季度爆发,AI、主流币、以及新兴应用赛道将继续成为市场焦点。
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