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于任何博彩人士都一样,他们最关心的话题就是如何将手上的资金最大化,如何做到呢?以下的文章,就是为了解答这个问题而撰写的。3 V5 N" H3 Z) O$ B4 f. M0 e8 o l
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/ ^7 e* B% L0 a8 r西甲:皇家马德里对西维尔--1.80 3.30 4.10--IBCBET沙巴早盘赔率- K9 m- u0 @6 L: j7 J7 N6 ^' j" s7 i
' a5 K3 a s9 q6 j( r- x4 X' r3 u
以西维尔近况及交锋记录计算,个人觉得:, X* `! _9 b5 d0 j) R. @. ^
% j ~3 K. y* ~$ U7 m
皇马获胜的概率有42% 平局的概率只有4% 西维尔获胜的概率有54% ; n% B6 z3 a, \8 ~
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很明显,我倾向于西维尔获得胜利,假设我有10,000元,我应该投注多少才合理呢?6 E# [; f$ @5 l/ D6 D
6 s% W' c. }" `, G; l, Q; k答案是:3916元!(不能多也不能少!!)9 e8 j7 e" J) y& v; g4 O
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5 v# S$ x( \9 ?
以上答案从哪里来?如何做到合理运用您手上的筹码,达到博彩利润的最大化?
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' |8 h2 M4 A7 e( Q' {) o盈利可能性
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对于不少人来说,博彩能盈利的方法无非就是很好的预测能力,神棍一点说,就是未卜先知了。从统计学角度出发,这样的说法有一定的可行性,但绝对不是盈利的全部。我们必须指出,将所有的资金投注到发生机会很低的事件上,是极度愚蠢并且风险很大的。同时,将同样的钱,投注到95%能胜出,但回报只有1%的事件上,依然是傻子行为。
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增值! ^; k+ M1 C* y1 \; t. z2 }5 H
& G( W0 o/ }" I& T- S8 f许多数学家例如约翰凯利(John Kelly)都大力提倡增值理论。增值的意思就是,赔率和你估计博彩获胜机会的比例。明显地,估计部分全在你的掌握内,这也就是博彩的核心价值所在。
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你相信曼联有40%的机会战胜阿仙奴,那因此你觉得以下哪个赔率是合理的呢?
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7 ~' c7 O% G3 Y* |! ^2 J# C: q. W$ ^" na) 1.4 b) 3.5 c) 1.67 d) 2.5
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正确答案是D。假设你在曼联身上投注100元,同时曼联有40%可以赢球,那么
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1 n/ W# b- U9 r1 K+ d$ H40%的机会你会收到150元的利润9 S9 I* g; l. N4 N% n) T
60%的机会你会一无所有
9 |9 v) @# k% n z$ g2 H1 t( Y) ?6 I预计盈利40% x 150 + 60% x -100 = 0 . w9 n" V2 Z9 ^, _; e K
由于预期盈利为0,同时你只有40%的机会取胜,那么2.5的赔率就是合理的。
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增值只会出现在庄家开出比你预计盈利为高的赔率时候,才能产生。在博彩中,这样的情况也时有出现,因为庄家难以知道你对比赛的理解有多少,你的把握有多大。更重要的是,另外的博彩者有不一样的想法和投注,庄家为了平衡彩池,就必然会调整赔率。类似的情况在时下流行的博彩项目,例如足球,篮球上经常可以见到。资金的投注比例比真正的胜出机会更能影响赔率。, l: J0 K) Y9 V6 M: ~2 W: o3 c4 z
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基于增值的投注
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& ?/ Y# a8 F n/ w$ T- M) l凯利公式建议,如果你想获利,就需要到更大的彩池进行投注,增值就是你获胜的或然率和现有的赔率之间的比例。, t" N! ^6 s) }- d! r
9 ]# u# z# u/ n
公式为:A = P - (1 - P )/(O - 1)
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A=博彩资金# @' W" K1 p! n* D; R. x
P=获胜机会0 t' Y) X- e6 l- |0 J" \8 {- z
O=总获得回报(包括投注本金)
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首先必须注意的是,如果P=1,也就是必胜,那么你就应该将所有家当变卖,马上倾家荡产投注。注意,这个假设只有真的100%必胜才有价值。4 W! K* D. r% D* A
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好的,我们再次回到天朝队的例子,天朝队依然有40%机会获胜,但以下将以不同的赔率计算。
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/ ^$ d) J/ K, A; J& e1 公平博彩(40%机会获胜,赔率2.5)1 {0 h" O5 Z0 }% q1 ? C3 a! L
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A = 0.4 - (0.6)/(1.5): C( C5 T2 b5 j0 a' R+ d
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A=0% |: [! Q* r! q
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结论,这里没肉吃,不下注也罢# y+ g/ G8 S. i4 \" K/ ^
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2 合理增值 (40%机会获胜,赔率3)
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8 E3 r7 w3 ^8 z f* v# U) UA= 0.4 - (0.6)/(2)
5 o, U9 y" R+ m. Q: G+ Z
8 j) v$ W! f2 m" YA=0.1
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结论,将你可投注资金的10%投注入去5 b1 @- Z( Y* m+ I
5 p7 U0 g+ |, x" K3 负增值 (40%机会获胜,赔率2)
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0 L1 b3 f2 X' }6 X0 [A= 0.4 - (0.6)/(1)
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$ F9 g+ t. v2 a( |: H6 OA= -0.2 % f+ A: z" l( E/ k" ^0 i" K+ a
( | X9 T" @0 X7 F结论,正常人就不要下注了,觉得钱多不如捐给孤儿院或者直接捐给我为好
. K; b6 k g+ v: ?; e
4 B) v3 w, D% W( i* C( Q" E+ M第三个例子很有趣,但凯利先生并没有将自己作为受注方的情况归纳入公式,但是否可以将受注的情况也归纳进去呢?那就留给读者自己研究了 |
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