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[体育菠菜心得方法] 合理运用投注金达致利润最大化
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1#
于任何博彩人士都一样,他们最关心的话题就是如何将手上的资金最大化,如何做到呢?以下的文章,就是为了解答这个问题而撰写的。
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西甲:皇家马德里对西维尔--1.80 3.30 4.10--IBCBET沙巴早盘赔率/ K' C) n. D# o; l
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以西维尔近况及交锋记录计算,个人觉得:
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皇马获胜的概率有42% 平局的概率只有4% 西维尔获胜的概率有54% & ]$ {; h& z* _' B: P" S
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很明显,我倾向于西维尔获得胜利,假设我有10,000元,我应该投注多少才合理呢?7 T4 a- ?, e( h* i" s; Q
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答案是:3916元!(不能多也不能少!!)
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( [. [& O, q+ H. I2 P6 A7 }4 T" t) Z6 s以上答案从哪里来?如何做到合理运用您手上的筹码,达到博彩利润的最大化?
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盈利可能性6 _8 D% ^3 }% T5 z; n+ a+ X1 w: b
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对于不少人来说,博彩能盈利的方法无非就是很好的预测能力,神棍一点说,就是未卜先知了。从统计学角度出发,这样的说法有一定的可行性,但绝对不是盈利的全部。我们必须指出,将所有的资金投注到发生机会很低的事件上,是极度愚蠢并且风险很大的。同时,将同样的钱,投注到95%能胜出,但回报只有1%的事件上,依然是傻子行为。
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增值
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许多数学家例如约翰凯利(John Kelly)都大力提倡增值理论。增值的意思就是,赔率和你估计博彩获胜机会的比例。明显地,估计部分全在你的掌握内,这也就是博彩的核心价值所在。
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7 n- k' @* {1 s# z; A你相信曼联有40%的机会战胜阿仙奴,那因此你觉得以下哪个赔率是合理的呢?* \- s( W  }* I% B3 J4 P

, j; O1 U6 e2 H# u' J! ba) 1.4   b) 3.5   c) 1.67   d) 2.5 " `. x/ C8 C( E! Z6 f, e# a! t
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正确答案是D。假设你在曼联身上投注100元,同时曼联有40%可以赢球,那么7 `! ]+ z0 ~2 w1 k) ]+ X: D
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40%的机会你会收到150元的利润+ P1 T# k. d+ E/ Z
60%的机会你会一无所有
) j5 |( i2 ]6 s  P" _预计盈利40% x 150 + 60% x -100 = 0
5 l! X/ G8 x' D% ~6 ~+ T由于预期盈利为0,同时你只有40%的机会取胜,那么2.5的赔率就是合理的。# l8 P. W2 O7 t- V1 s

5 F' i% p8 w- {. t3 J增值只会出现在庄家开出比你预计盈利为高的赔率时候,才能产生。在博彩中,这样的情况也时有出现,因为庄家难以知道你对比赛的理解有多少,你的把握有多大。更重要的是,另外的博彩者有不一样的想法和投注,庄家为了平衡彩池,就必然会调整赔率。类似的情况在时下流行的博彩项目,例如足球,篮球上经常可以见到。资金的投注比例比真正的胜出机会更能影响赔率。. Y$ `7 r% P; B( ~# ]: z7 I# |
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基于增值的投注8 _3 E! Q# X( |

- ^, o9 M: ?4 }- P凯利公式建议,如果你想获利,就需要到更大的彩池进行投注,增值就是你获胜的或然率和现有的赔率之间的比例。
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公式为:A = P - (1 - P )/(O - 1): x: P6 \* X. @& c# i$ f
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A=博彩资金
/ t( T5 D3 O; qP=获胜机会( k: L) G! ~: y, F+ u! T
O=总获得回报(包括投注本金)
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首先必须注意的是,如果P=1,也就是必胜,那么你就应该将所有家当变卖,马上倾家荡产投注。注意,这个假设只有真的100%必胜才有价值。
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$ j8 ?6 N8 }& d& s, F) g( g& l好的,我们再次回到天朝队的例子,天朝队依然有40%机会获胜,但以下将以不同的赔率计算。
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1 公平博彩(40%机会获胜,赔率2.5)
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, v* X7 M8 _5 q  _, R5 l$ jA = 0.4 - (0.6)/(1.5)' H( z/ D( w" V; m

# f) |: g$ [  pA=0! k& b9 w8 G) ~. i! |2 n
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结论,这里没肉吃,不下注也罢" n0 U3 ]& \4 M) g
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2 合理增值 (40%机会获胜,赔率3); m; q% b; W: D# l! _3 E1 ]& {% Q

+ u+ K" {$ M" u* C6 g/ c/ `: c+ \A= 0.4 - (0.6)/(2)
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, q) ^& x  u7 |7 A4 T1 Z! nA=0.1
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结论,将你可投注资金的10%投注入去
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3 负增值  (40%机会获胜,赔率2)
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A= 0.4 - (0.6)/(1)5 \7 L8 I( ]) `* T9 W: V
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A= -0.2 " _8 `3 A- {3 p! c4 d
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结论,正常人就不要下注了,觉得钱多不如捐给孤儿院或者直接捐给我为好
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: U  a$ k7 ?  p7 u! A/ }7 p4 k第三个例子很有趣,但凯利先生并没有将自己作为受注方的情况归纳入公式,但是否可以将受注的情况也归纳进去呢?那就留给读者自己研究了
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2#
谢谢楼主的分享,楼主辛苦了
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3#
算是分析得非常深刻了!谢谢
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4#
谢谢楼主分享好文章,
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5#
谢谢楼主的心得分享
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