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于任何博彩人士都一样,他们最关心的话题就是如何将手上的资金最大化,如何做到呢?以下的文章,就是为了解答这个问题而撰写的。* r: n4 S, i2 k$ H5 ^. r7 D6 Y
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西甲:皇家马德里对西维尔--1.80 3.30 4.10--IBCBET沙巴早盘赔率% Q! c" k' s# ?) O2 u& ]
, v7 Y8 e. e# H" l
以西维尔近况及交锋记录计算,个人觉得:
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" m/ j' G' U- |) R! p7 {9 S$ [皇马获胜的概率有42% 平局的概率只有4% 西维尔获胜的概率有54% + ^& [$ ~6 }4 p( b
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很明显,我倾向于西维尔获得胜利,假设我有10,000元,我应该投注多少才合理呢?
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2 z% ]& V/ C' P9 W0 k- N答案是:3916元!(不能多也不能少!!)% Q; Q3 c, q" j# S. `
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以上答案从哪里来?如何做到合理运用您手上的筹码,达到博彩利润的最大化?
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盈利可能性
! L6 D* `3 L! O' c% e [
& N# ~, n1 `# ]1 ?3 Z对于不少人来说,博彩能盈利的方法无非就是很好的预测能力,神棍一点说,就是未卜先知了。从统计学角度出发,这样的说法有一定的可行性,但绝对不是盈利的全部。我们必须指出,将所有的资金投注到发生机会很低的事件上,是极度愚蠢并且风险很大的。同时,将同样的钱,投注到95%能胜出,但回报只有1%的事件上,依然是傻子行为。7 o8 }% S- ?9 \6 E
+ P3 p) V/ I+ H& _增值6 Z0 g: j$ q4 [$ e$ g' C8 P
, F I1 h* N& ?; @) _许多数学家例如约翰凯利(John Kelly)都大力提倡增值理论。增值的意思就是,赔率和你估计博彩获胜机会的比例。明显地,估计部分全在你的掌握内,这也就是博彩的核心价值所在。
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@* ~) c2 g2 ], C你相信曼联有40%的机会战胜阿仙奴,那因此你觉得以下哪个赔率是合理的呢?
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5 d! H3 V$ W/ la) 1.4 b) 3.5 c) 1.67 d) 2.5 / K! M; G5 D$ h+ Z: d; M
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正确答案是D。假设你在曼联身上投注100元,同时曼联有40%可以赢球,那么
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0 u7 ^1 \' k* s- F7 A6 H& s40%的机会你会收到150元的利润' R9 l0 E4 m2 {0 R7 Q$ m, O
60%的机会你会一无所有+ Z. O3 g) Z9 x1 T( [9 A
预计盈利40% x 150 + 60% x -100 = 0
- R9 r H( G2 Y+ l+ S由于预期盈利为0,同时你只有40%的机会取胜,那么2.5的赔率就是合理的。! u: N( C3 U p
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增值只会出现在庄家开出比你预计盈利为高的赔率时候,才能产生。在博彩中,这样的情况也时有出现,因为庄家难以知道你对比赛的理解有多少,你的把握有多大。更重要的是,另外的博彩者有不一样的想法和投注,庄家为了平衡彩池,就必然会调整赔率。类似的情况在时下流行的博彩项目,例如足球,篮球上经常可以见到。资金的投注比例比真正的胜出机会更能影响赔率。4 g1 @' r- Z) d. Q3 ?
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基于增值的投注, O8 T5 ?0 y: _7 i0 A5 z! V7 ^
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凯利公式建议,如果你想获利,就需要到更大的彩池进行投注,增值就是你获胜的或然率和现有的赔率之间的比例。
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0 F5 |; E q0 e8 J3 ?! M& ?& Y! Y公式为:A = P - (1 - P )/(O - 1)
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A=博彩资金
% u* A' k% F! u3 C/ d: sP=获胜机会$ z8 \/ _" E2 `) C2 u, Q, U
O=总获得回报(包括投注本金)
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& A3 v0 F5 ]+ Z, x! }9 c首先必须注意的是,如果P=1,也就是必胜,那么你就应该将所有家当变卖,马上倾家荡产投注。注意,这个假设只有真的100%必胜才有价值。: Q j" R/ v3 k/ B
! w" O: m B# F/ s9 y" k好的,我们再次回到天朝队的例子,天朝队依然有40%机会获胜,但以下将以不同的赔率计算。
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1 公平博彩(40%机会获胜,赔率2.5)0 [/ u) w' Z1 Y( D
* h. l$ t n4 ]3 WA = 0.4 - (0.6)/(1.5)
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A=0
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结论,这里没肉吃,不下注也罢7 W2 e( U) g) a
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2 合理增值 (40%机会获胜,赔率3)
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A= 0.4 - (0.6)/(2)* W# Z7 u* h8 @8 c: s
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A=0.13 e/ g! f6 O2 @, R3 F3 \: B
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结论,将你可投注资金的10%投注入去
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7 K" F9 F& M# u5 B! ^2 ?# U" n3 负增值 (40%机会获胜,赔率2)
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A= 0.4 - (0.6)/(1)
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A= -0.2 b4 E* `1 q7 K2 F9 K6 ]
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结论,正常人就不要下注了,觉得钱多不如捐给孤儿院或者直接捐给我为好
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, T; @- @+ E& O1 K: V2 W第三个例子很有趣,但凯利先生并没有将自己作为受注方的情况归纳入公式,但是否可以将受注的情况也归纳进去呢?那就留给读者自己研究了 |
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