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在北欧联赛中,以下几家的公司数据的准确性相当值得对赔率感兴趣的朋友关注:Nordicbet、Vikingbet、Veikkaus、Norway、 Sweden。当然还有两家并非传统意义上的赔率公司但其数据能够在相当程度反应出市场资金的流向和庄家反抽平衡资金的手法出处,分别是TOTO、必发交易所。通过对这几家公司的综合反应更能真实的展现出庄家调控整个市场资金一个流程,从而达到事前预测的目地。
' `4 ]4 Q9 a( }& M1 V& U9 z7 u. l. u7 Y) ?/ K0 A! L
市场差异汇总值我们知道一场足彩赛事开出欧赔不止一家公司,象五大联赛一场比赛更是会多达百家以上的公司进行开盘受注,形成一个市场。这个时候胜负平的组合,就可能出现有趣的现象即从这一百多家公司中一名博彩数学家可以在A公司下主胜,然后在B公司下平局,再在C公司下在计算准确投注资客胜。在计算准确投注资金的情况下,无论赛果是什么你都会赢利,这就是所谓的必胜赔率。8 [# O" o2 L( L0 a5 @
1 L3 @3 |) n6 F6 O: h2 I) d& E但由于博彩业日趋成熟,行业联盟在各家数据开出的情况下都会进行比较及时进行调整避免出现必胜赔率现象,即算是出现做为一名投注者你相当难以把握,第一、你要有非常强的数据分析和数学、财务管理知识,第二、你必须拥有百家公司投注账号,因为你不可能事先知道必胜赔率出现在哪几家公司,所以事前你必须统统注册所有公司的账号,这对于我们来说几乎是不可能完成的任务。1 O8 t" w/ m/ e- Q+ d
# C# s) i+ W: J" w Z8 u那么笔者突然谈到这个必胜赔率有何种意义呢?我们应当注意到,以上所述假设成立,我们有一点是必须认同那就是博彩公司的行业同盟!做为一家公司所开出的赔率,他可能差别于其它公司但不会出现有悖于整个欧赔市场。引申开来,笔者想说的就是,其实其实如同期货报价,不同的公司在报出不同价位,但整体趋势越是接近终点那么就越于真实性靠近。这也是所谓的价格总是围绕价值上下波动的价值规律。
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! }( x2 i1 q- M凯利指数是一个很强效的附属在欧赔数据反应其与整体市场平均差异的指标,通过换算各公司和整体赔率市场的差异,再进行汇总加权从而得出市场趋势差异。这样就能达到分析庄家的真实意图,这里要强调一点,可能在这时候有人会说赔率也是随着受注额而变化的,和真实的赛果并没有关系。其实在一点上笔者认为赔率确实存在某种程度与受注额的趋同,但是关联赔率的另一个方面,也是庄家对赛事信息的先导性,这也为什么百多家的开盘公司在一场比赛上都存在微小差异但是从来没极左或右相悖赔率的原因,当然如果只是看赔率表象是往往会被庄家调动心理,而凯利指数这个市场风险杠杆才充分体现了它的财务数据的客观真实性,而对于市场差异汇总值的分析,我们只选取只于市场分歧最小项或者为风险突出项(介定于冷门)。 |
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