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[lastpost] => 2807252 以太坊 2026 年转型：为什么基于证明的验证对节点至关重要（转） 1771501378 舞出精彩
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[虚拟币交流]
分析师：比特币价格可能在2022年跌至1.4万美元，但现在“买入是最好的选择”
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研究称，比特币今年将面临“周期底部”，可能会从目前的水平下跌超过50%。- v0 s7 y6 Q* c7 s7 K0 l3 U
; Y7 Z9 S8 h+ Q: g( O. i+ B% y6 M在6月1日的一篇推特帖子中，链上分析平台CryptoQuant的撰稿人Venturefounder预测，2022年是比特币“投降”的一年。& N$ u1 _( k# ?& n- |& c8 ~& ]$ b
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比特币现在拥有“有史以来最好的3年投资回报率”
" s; O+ V( b* K& u6 l4 IVenturefounder写道，根据比特币减半周期的历史模式，今年应该是当前四年周期中的熊市害群之马。
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, R* Z5 e: {; T0 L" n/ U) c就像2018年和它的熊市一样，BTC/USD应该会在2022年的某个时候找到自己的宏观底部，如果计算以前从历史高点的跌幅，这可能在14000美元到21000美元之间。3 |: ?% r. f$ o T! q; G, d* K
; ]9 R5 ]7 I) Z4 b: T2 X% h“距离比特币下一次减半还有670天，与过去的周期相比，我们按时看到了比特币的表现，”一条推文解释道：9 D- l2 C) l3 I+ K1 F6 }* L( a
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“在接下来的670天里，BTC将在接下来的6个月里投降，并触及周期底部(14-21k美元)，然后在2023年的大部分时间里达到2.8 -40k美元，并在下一次减半之前再次达到~40k美元。”* ?* U) O1 }# r, `, Z: k% J6 E
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这样的预测虽然不是什么好消息，但也不是没有先例的。在2018年12月触及3100美元后，比特币在7个月后设法回到13800美元，然后再次逆转下行，在2020年3月的低点3600美元见底。5 B# u, R3 ^) \0 s7 L: a3 a; z5 [& x
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即使是2019年的最高价格也不足以打破2017年12月创下的历史最高纪录——20000美元。4 n3 J2 h7 D8 n! l
. C% k5 t. ^, F' Y" cVenturefounder认为，这一水平可能再次成为现货价格图表的一个特征。尽管如此，那些愿意乘势投资的人(即便是现在)还是会站在历史正确的一边。
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. q. g; F! E( Y( U2 \0 K! j& K“换句话说，从现在到未来6-12个月，购买比特币是最好的选择。这可能是有史以来最好的3年投资回报率，”他补充道：* B: x* M, ? P! f0 P9 o( y! ~
, M; v4 \4 J9 `: i3 _# K) _, E“我们可能没有在周期底部，但我们在BTC周期底部的范围内。这是你在把握市场周期时能做的最好的事情。”
# t* R, a/ L/ B6 B8 v6 m$ w' b% a; _3 @- z) [4 X$ P! H* a3 b: p, U- f1 b
底部预测不断出现
# c# S6 K" Q3 C7 n; Z/ W与此同时，其他人已经估计可能的底部范围在14000美元或附近。$ o& m% A% L/ B
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这一价格将比目前的历史高点69000美元下跌约80%。4 |$ ^+ a9 A5 r! l( u1 s
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链上分析公司Glassnode的数据显示，目前31000美元左右的价格相对来说是一个较小的降幅。
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' u$ a$ L* _% y7 }# h7 U9 sBTC/USD从历史高点回落 来源：Glassnode
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# c' R& M. ` a; z# X; E3 S上月，同行分析师Rekt Capital估计，一旦BTC/USD跌破200周移动平均线，其潜在目标价为15500美元。
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卖家要将市场推低到如此之低可能会遇到困难。持有最多比特币的上市公司MicroStrategy承诺，只要比特币价格接近20000美元大关，它就买入。6 l6 K6 d4 N9 R' I# x: l
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交易巨头BitMEX前首席执行官Arthur Hayes也证实，他对20000美元的比特币感兴趣。$ U" {; T* a) C
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