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[虚拟币交流]
分析师：比特币价格可能在2022年跌至1.4万美元，但现在“买入是最好的选择”
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研究称，比特币今年将面临“周期底部”，可能会从目前的水平下跌超过50%。; F7 ~4 c3 U, W% q v& R4 j2 N
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在6月1日的一篇推特帖子中，链上分析平台CryptoQuant的撰稿人Venturefounder预测，2022年是比特币“投降”的一年。
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* ^' C1 ]& \+ J% c: X比特币现在拥有“有史以来最好的3年投资回报率”( [' u9 K' d, e# \; V& ?( [
Venturefounder写道，根据比特币减半周期的历史模式，今年应该是当前四年周期中的熊市害群之马。
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* l4 l. c0 H2 ?- }8 W! {2 _( x就像2018年和它的熊市一样，BTC/USD应该会在2022年的某个时候找到自己的宏观底部，如果计算以前从历史高点的跌幅，这可能在14000美元到21000美元之间。- C `/ Y1 N* |6 C ]" S( ` v3 v
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“距离比特币下一次减半还有670天，与过去的周期相比，我们按时看到了比特币的表现，”一条推文解释道：! B [5 }! q6 u* `; ]
! C9 ^7 r6 V9 p' G: f, d. ]“在接下来的670天里，BTC将在接下来的6个月里投降，并触及周期底部(14-21k美元)，然后在2023年的大部分时间里达到2.8 -40k美元，并在下一次减半之前再次达到~40k美元。”* ^; E! C7 W. D3 ?0 H$ w9 Y7 E
$ i% j2 f* T. f) K K5 l( J( a/ w这样的预测虽然不是什么好消息，但也不是没有先例的。在2018年12月触及3100美元后，比特币在7个月后设法回到13800美元，然后再次逆转下行，在2020年3月的低点3600美元见底。
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' R# s) e9 Z1 l. d8 h7 A即使是2019年的最高价格也不足以打破2017年12月创下的历史最高纪录——20000美元。
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( ~+ N0 q0 g% ~' Y! O1 o( {; A3 @7 NVenturefounder认为，这一水平可能再次成为现货价格图表的一个特征。尽管如此，那些愿意乘势投资的人(即便是现在)还是会站在历史正确的一边。
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# ^/ f' T; D8 u. E `“换句话说，从现在到未来6-12个月，购买比特币是最好的选择。这可能是有史以来最好的3年投资回报率，”他补充道：% Q( a# t5 Z2 C: y: w
% I3 \) z! V" q0 C- ~7 Z$ n“我们可能没有在周期底部，但我们在BTC周期底部的范围内。这是你在把握市场周期时能做的最好的事情。”& B1 U& Y1 s- F0 Y1 k6 E* a/ _
8 x- R, o* J, p$ L底部预测不断出现
! A. X4 t/ g, P& f与此同时，其他人已经估计可能的底部范围在14000美元或附近。: k& p1 l8 N M9 `& r/ g; w
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这一价格将比目前的历史高点69000美元下跌约80%。* i n& e, D9 ?- B8 Z5 S; E
3 w- H7 m4 o, t链上分析公司Glassnode的数据显示，目前31000美元左右的价格相对来说是一个较小的降幅。
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% }3 z6 u; v3 d9 xBTC/USD从历史高点回落 来源：Glassnode
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1 L- \$ | F8 n7 S8 J- c1 ~ t上月，同行分析师Rekt Capital估计，一旦BTC/USD跌破200周移动平均线，其潜在目标价为15500美元。. e r! I4 e& F& p! i. F
" @% N7 A' x4 a1 B( W! y卖家要将市场推低到如此之低可能会遇到困难。持有最多比特币的上市公司MicroStrategy承诺，只要比特币价格接近20000美元大关，它就买入。
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& c/ J( [* W. [* t' Q8 j" X交易巨头BitMEX前首席执行官Arthur Hayes也证实，他对20000美元的比特币感兴趣。( C( N( t& B* m. K2 V
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