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[虚拟币资讯]
币世界余勋6.2 缩表为弥补去年放水 而放水初期低点其实就在5.19两万七 长线以此为据
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在大部分人认为6月的50加息+缩表、基本在5月的下行中、得到有效释放、
L, Y ^& x. e6 W7 P余勋也不例外、 2 K% `/ m D0 A1 C' A# y
其中最关键的是美联储26号纪要、会灵活对待加息。
! {; t) X5 A7 w$ Q! |2 c( @$ [* M# [是保经济的重要决策！
/ T( n* f2 O& {; h7 S @这其中美股迎来了阶段连涨、大饼也四连阳、
" [- ^+ M8 d3 V' M3 d8 u& g低点26700-32400、
% X" U1 [, n5 Z2 t& `) y) C反弹近六千点、以太低点反弹近300点。 ' ]- ]4 R H+ C$ O0 R! C
但仅仅在缩表两个交易日、
q& f' {- \# G% Y) h( a大饼回撤幅度达到三千点、以太近200点。 & l- @2 M. {7 a! o. I/ d
涨幅就已回撤过半！ ; `8 C. _0 _4 Q& u: H, [2 c3 v
所以暂时来看，期待的靴子落地效应基本告吹。
/ ~, x6 A* y. e& J4 s2 x" z9 {- o不是利空没有得到释放、是市场做多情绪无法调动。 j# J" ]& O" ^4 G
其次、 ; U" J- y6 b4 g
缩表大致会延续至2024年初、 / A' v; k' R2 a/ Q0 C5 I- ~
每月950亿、直至达到1.5万亿美元、
1 m# ?0 B# k E等于说、这期间会持续在蓄水池中进行抽水。
6 c: \5 X" f% T, \美股想大肆上行也是有心无力。 - X. r% r: }' ^/ v |
但回到币圈、 4 _3 s7 I* t0 S# ^8 i
去年牛市因5.19去中心化大跌、
1 O$ Q3 r( H& G' g9 e( R5 h在27000附近。美联储大幅度在放水、迎来第二轮周期牛市。 / J5 I6 h6 _: C, ?/ u! s" y
而现在弥补这个放水漏洞、而行情其实已经在放水底部附近。 ! J9 g' s* |0 P
个人认为、在经历了加息初期、中期恐慌、
# ^$ U. U! j9 e缩表虽是实质利空，但终究是缓慢的。 1 X, k. E }+ M6 o9 o0 o- R4 N% O
对当前的底部、影响有限。
' E+ p* L/ k- @最不济、缩表启动至结束、行情依然处于放水初期币圈阶段。也就是当前27000-30000附近。
2 ^! x: e H7 }6 s* n/ u: Y所以27000、即是
1 V+ S b* e& S4 }去年5.19低点、也是今年5.12（加息50基点+缩表恐慌低点） 6 B7 @" c( W, {" v# P$ I' N
同时还是去年放水初期低点、 # `8 H: b5 `5 V* h1 c
也会是今年缩表弥补去年放水周期的低点。
' ]+ a) k/ u" e# x由此得出的结论是、 , ^+ J ^1 i6 T( J! f" ]# @
加息+缩表等实质利空、市场年度最大创伤、底部就在27000附近、而以太就在1700附近。
) A; P1 q; l' ^; M7 Y% S点位不会出现太大偏离。
2 @) H& o; \1 B综合以上、
. q& ?2 q; h6 O' U; O# B6 x1 L美股逐渐消化了加息、也开启缩表缓慢抽水、
9 V9 j( s& ^: N在整个运行过程中、会由初期的恐慌、缓慢下行，逐渐适应、止跌、然后徐徐补涨。
4 u( R( _8 }8 R* S( L那操作上、无非缺乏了长线效应、
8 n) j4 S7 T+ y$ t: W抬头大肆上涨、条件匮乏！下行、最大利空由当初的注水点、再到完全调离这些注入资金。低点其实也都在这附近。
" d( V9 Q7 q6 |& r" O# U3 r那行情其实还是围绕三万点、进行弱势整理。
" O5 R; Y2 U7 q即难深跌、也难大涨，直至缩表有效、通胀得到控制。
' @ J* ?4 C% Z美股适应上行、市场逐步接受开始回暖。
1 v7 F9 U* W& E$ B6 O8 M夜间美股走势平平、虽弱但不跌。 . K' ]! F, }5 A: j8 ~( t& Y
大饼无需追空、给一空间点位、
0 ~% g/ G+ u6 K" l逢28000附近、以太1720附近可做短线接多点。
5 Y( ^1 n' ?: D0 Z! y高空需至31700-32000间布局、
% K" k; i8 Y( w9 N3 G! A反之、空间不够、进场始终趋于震荡区中轨、 ! N0 Y5 D8 Z3 G& |
得不偿失。
" F( g; A. z+ W, p4 W来源：金色财经 |
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