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无论是美国、欧洲还是其他发达地区，对于通胀增快的警惕都已超过对于刺激经济的渴望。8-10%的通胀，足以让很多家庭陷入窘境。可是供给不够，别无它法。 + o: p% D' o; D$ @0 B
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摆在各国央行面前的，大概只有加息一条路，尽管大家都知道，它会带来萧条。可是加息了，各类资产降下来，通胀才能得到遏制。 / V/ ^5 ?7 y! ~( \/ P
在这样注定的加息局面之下，所有的风险资产，用一个词来说，就是“独木难支”。而不幸的是，比特币、以太坊，就目前而言刚好被划分为“风险资产”。 4 B4 U/ o1 B* J. K7 E3 c) _0 @" ]+ L# z
先说下周期：
8 Q9 F2 i/ r2 |1 }& l你相信“super cycle”理论么？所谓的super cycle是说，crypto资产每4年就会经历一次牛熊的轮回。这个理论最直接的支撑，来自于比特币每四年的减半（带来的抛压变化）。诚然，从2011年至今，它已经生效了3次。 0 Q0 @2 j! s+ E9 F
3年的比特币牛市，让大众启蒙到了区块链这门技术，所以15年我们有了以太坊。 * t& H l' H4 K$ C, J- X
17年的牛市，让大家意识到了智能合约的强劲，所以19年我们有了DeFi。
6 f; j6 o* ]5 l* E& c21年的牛市，让我们认识到了DeFi、NFT可以做出这么多不得了的东西，所以未来我们注定会收获新的种子。
6 _& A3 F5 A+ P重点：关于抄底。 7 l2 E& D$ I+ v J9 W
我觉得在800美金以下买入$stETH，对于长期持有者来说，也许是个正确的选择。 1 \8 |' w8 |( U6 l# b" [% H1 M
$ e- t+ r K) ^# l800美金是上轮牛市的起点之一，同样stETH也确实应当有些额外的折扣。长期主义者是一定能等到stETH回兑成真正ETH的那天的。
. P: a- H, G6 ~2 ]- E7 I" r对于以太坊未来的技术路线，PoS ETH+Rollup的组合，我是非常看好的。基于这样的路线，真正的web3.0应用也可以超低成本跑在以太坊之上，享受以太坊的安全性，而不需要再考虑高昂的手续费。以太坊的环保问题、通胀问题也会因为PoS而得以解决。 . _5 n: j# k7 Z; n
另外，BTC是我的心头好，同样可以择机开始定投。最近半年以来，它的流动性之好，大家都已有目共睹，毕竟流动性为王。而且，加息终究会结束，放水才是永恒纪元。 , m0 B- C+ j) {% @5 k/ @$ E
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最后，此时此刻，如果你这是你第一次经历熊市，不要太过沮丧。战争会过去的，疫情也会结束的，通胀会平息的，放水仍然是永恒的主题。熊市里的分分秒秒，都是build和学习的良机，因为这阴暗的一刻，也同样不是永久。
0 Z9 I/ v+ i- i6 ~6 G来源：金色财经 |
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