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[虚拟币资讯]
Foresight Ventures市场周报:熊市至暗阶段,机构暴雷清算
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市场观点
, l' t) M% N+ C9 k+ `2 }; v$ S1、宏观流动性
5 Z$ Z M: c' D' r$ p6 ]货币流动性整体紧缩。如市场所料,美联储为遏制高通胀采取了1994年以来最大力度的加息行动,同时强烈承诺降低通胀。不过鲍威尔也表示,单次75个基点的加息幅度过大,不会成为常规政策。过去一年里的8次美联储决议后,6次美股走高,随后继续创新低。BTC仍然与传统市场相关,但是由于下跌周期里机构的爆雷导致流动性危机,进而进入被动清算,成为市场持续超跌的主因。 * M( [: [! ^2 W* `: |

# R3 v$ w+ q% }2、链上指标
! K- W( l/ t) T, o对最强手进行清洗。BTC小额地址增持,大额地址减持。可见新入场资金持续增加,但大户和机构在减持。囤币党群体的需求仍然太小,无法吃掉目前的卖方抛压。长期持有的BTC也在持续的降低,而这种降低未必是件坏事,从历史数据来看,长期持有者的投降往往意味着阶段性下跌的结束。 - v4 {! k% N8 D
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BTC勉强维持在变现价格的历史总成本附近(23430)。BTC在30000-40000的价格范围经历了大量的供应易手,然而在20000-27000之间几乎没有交易量,这可能表现为一个没有支撑的高波动性区域。 ~1 [6 X) Y' O7 U

* c, K+ d+ s+ x3、BTC长期市场指标 ; A f1 |; d8 [( a, o% z
长期趋势指标MVRV-ZScore以市场总成本作为依据,反映市场总体盈利状态。当指标大于6时,是顶部区间;当指标小于2时,是底部区间。当前指标为0.41,已经初步接触到历史大底的绿色区间。绿色区间往往出现在熊市结束之前,并且可以在这种状态下持续一段时间(从2018年的几个月到2015年的1年),直到市场敲定最后的底部。
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) l2 u, r- O3 H6 u3 A( a) d4、BTC短期市场指标 * [1 l3 \" c2 }. l- l0 _
期货资金费率:资金费率最近几日保持负费率。费率0.05-0.1%,多头杠杆较多,是市场短期顶部;费率-0.1-0%,空头杠杆较多,是市场短期底部。市场恐慌情绪非常严重,短期底部特征明显。
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5 n& W Q; F/ G期货多空比:2.3,短期市场有继续暴跌可能。多空比数据波动大,参考意义有所削弱。 4 [+ |( t7 P# [# ?" V

& q# I& O; R3 Z7 ~合约持仓量:本周系统中的投机杠杆下降明显,多头爆仓略多。
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4 X4 g, `* C8 `* `6 L5、BTC走势分析
' _- w' ~1 G0 n$ ]; i: ~随着BTC从悬崖上掉到多年新低的20000附近,市场正在进入此次熊市周期的最深阶段。当前BTC暂时企稳仅仅是因为抛压和抄底资金的博弈,一旦发现反弹结束或者无力后,这些抄底的筹码就会瞬间变成抛压。因此只能等待机构的连环爆雷和链上清算完成,筹码彻底换手之后,再开启新一轮牛熊周期。
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# H. k3 {1 h4 O- A9 ]3 R8 _( A1 ]6、板块涨跌幅Top 100
0 C( m. }2 c! q. S$ u6 U5 s本周BTC大幅下跌26%,市场全线下跌。BTC还是处于吸筹状态,而ETH已经直接回到抛售状态,反映当前抄底ETH的信心已经严重不足。近期ETH的极速下跌,是ETH2.0质押解决协议Lido的stETH流动性危机所致。大笔持仓stETH的美国理财平台Celsius陷入用户信任危机;而以SBF,三箭资本为首的机构也开始抛售清算,此举无疑加剧了市场恐慌。 3 R) |" i+ b o U

+ k3 ?! K3 L5 w/ A, G: w市场数据
6 O' [/ m R0 N/ w1 g$ A3 a7 O1、公链总锁仓量情况 # J9 ~% _8 z4 [* Q1 M. f

6 N8 s' r% b7 v. [0 M0 u/ _) N& D* d本周是继LUNA暴雷事件后,再一次单周断崖式下跌,本周TVL下降31.81B,下跌幅度为29.89%,整体TVL水平已下降至21年4月初水平,但是彼时BTC价格为57000美元,整体市场规模仍旧在扩大中。
9 W+ g' @2 n' s2、各公链TVL占比情况
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本周主流币下跌幅度较大,单ETH链上TVL占比仅出现轻微下降,下降0.83%至64.11%,而BSC链占比已上升至8.25%,其余各链整体变化较小。
S' d' T5 @! q3、各链协议锁仓量情况
" ]7 ]. l2 ^- r1)ETH锁仓量情况 t1 s$ R6 B( U7 s$ g
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2)BSC锁仓量情况 , G! K+ M; f. p! i- p
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3)Tron锁仓量情况 # @2 K) ~$ g6 _& V6 P& S
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4)Solana锁仓量情况 " N# ?8 r) b0 W/ l# @

% o0 Z+ z; D% k5)Avalanche锁仓量情况 - F! f n; }2 v6 m4 S
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6)Polygon锁仓量情况 8 y k1 d9 Q+ C# U. B4 p
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7)Fantom锁仓量情况 3 I; Q& B7 ^2 E) j

5 T+ U3 l7 n) n2 b8)本周协议情况总结
8 W9 z M- y! I4 E+ m, N5 o协议整体均出现较大幅度下跌,出现轻微增长的协议也是短期TVL波动剧烈所致,各链DEX下跌幅度约为32%上下,而借贷协议下跌幅度达到40%附近,短期借贷协议下降更为严重。
! z4 k- C# B, y) H* q7 u6 O$ H8 |4、ETH Gas fee历史情况 ' G" D0 Q( I# V$ }

2 Y5 | M) }+ O' q7 E0 K当前链上转账费用约为$1.37,Uniswap交易费用约为$4.65,Opensea的交易费用约为$5.1,受行情大跌影响,链上活跃度也再次回到底部区间。 ( F/ s# C8 O, ?4 ^) @
5、NFT市场数据变化 1 H2 N. o: i4 S5 p
NFT指数市值
& p* F$ D/ l& s1 ~# \" D 4 v5 }' \ Q9 B- I* m7 u0 @
NFT市场交易概览
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NFT“聪明的钱”购买排序 4 f4 S! d+ y+ r0 ^- X

7 |. v# E0 u. t6 j, u* m+ FNFT市场进一步下跌,并且受到ETH暴跌影响,从年初计算的美元计价金额已下跌73%;短期内也未出现较好的活跃项目,当前活跃在交易量排行榜前几位的均是老牌头部项目,而以Opensea、X2Y2和Magic Eden为首的三家NFT交易市场交易量已下跌至一周前一半以下的水平。
9 b; j/ G% J5 v2 f3 l项目最新融资情况
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0 `' x5 \/ M3 _4 G免责声明: Foresight Ventures所有文章均不作为投资建议。投资有风险,请评估个人风险承受能力,审慎做出投资决策。 来源:金色财经 |
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