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[lastpost] => 2795987 山寨币交易量占加密货币总交易量的50%，超过比特币和以太坊。（转） 1768061862 jackcool1011
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干货——BTC挖矿电费成本到底是多少？
, E( |: k/ @& z' i- {很多人预言BTC在熊市不会跌破主流矿机的挖矿电费成本，包括著名BTC投资人李笑来。为什么这么说？可能有几方面原因：一是从历史经验来看，BTC确实没有跌破过主流电费成本。二是有一个逻辑就是，如果BTC价格一直跌，跌破主流矿机的挖矿成本，那么这些大矿场就会直接购买btc，这样对价格有一个支撑作用。那么既然明确了价格与挖矿成本存在这么一个关系，我们可以试着探讨电费成本问题。
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* Q( j2 i7 k( _. y! }+ A( P一、要确定电费成本，首先要大致预估挖矿难度的变化值，这样可以基本确定挖矿需要的电力。因为在相同电价的条件下，电费成本主要由挖矿难度决定。! Q5 V2 ]( P. e
BTC历史挖矿难度变动情况： y# |2 E8 A) k+ N, C% B' D: L2 _
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7 ?6 x! C. t& _2 o# ^' r很多人觉得熊市挖矿难度也会同步下降，但是sorry，即使在2018年这么大熊市，挖矿难度也增长了近2倍。（难度按照年初首次统计，年中基本呈波动上升状态）( T9 Z$ Z! e( R' {2 H7 O+ E/ M
好了，那么我们取难度涨幅最低的值1.6倍来测算2019年的难度，测算下来，每期难度平均上涨约4%。这是我们后面测算的假设前提。
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二、于是我们就得到了下面这个表。7 ]* M& J" y- {' s
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' T- S; I/ g8 n1 D7 g. K' O, ^好了，很清楚了。第一档，家用电的小散，早就关机了。! L) k/ k6 V: {
第二档，普通水电、常规托管电费的，挖矿暂时没亏，但是算上矿机成本也早已亏本。: i# G y- }1 \3 p2 L. k
第三档，老少边穷的风电、火电等，如果买矿机的基本也是保本状态，因为按照1台s15每年大约挖0.3个btc，需要3台矿机同时挖1年才能得到1个btc，而矿机的使用周期差不多2年。3 M, m. a; _$ F, H5 U9 C+ o
很多人还说有第4档，伊朗、乌克兰等0.1元甚至不要钱的电，请问有考虑ZZ、安全风险没，真的去的也是少数。呵呵。
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& o; C2 _$ x5 V三、那么又一个问题来了，大家都亏损或接近亏损，为啥还有人挖？原来有一群人矿机成本是很低的，比如极寒同学，他们在新疆的矿场，BTC成本肯定不到2万。所以所谓的主流矿机挖矿成本为什么可以基本刨去矿机成本？明白了没。 d o7 ]/ o5 u
当然，价格主要由供需决定，难度、算力都是随着价格波动。所以并不是说价格没有下降空间了，如果价格继续下降也是成立的。有什么疑问大家互相探讨。
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挖矿这个概念和虚拟币关联起来，我真是一点也弄不明白 |
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