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[lastpost] => 2781672 分析师预测，随着比特币价格接近 94,000 美元，它将进一步下跌。（转） 1763526961 whywhy
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比特币最近甚至大幅跑赢了自10月底以来一直走高的道琼斯工业平均指数和标普500指数。 / P, V7 h! S" u9 f+ k( }
/ O6 l& h A6 {0 }5 l. l监管机构有望很快批准首只现货比特币交易所交易基金(ETF)是比特币上涨背后的主要推动力，" y* B% j* ?, g8 P5 F1 J1 J+ x3 B
& N- l1 j; d D# \
专家预测，这将引发投资者对数字资产的新一轮兴趣。 7 g% g( X1 d& d+ f/ H( Z
+ c. @+ {( ^+ `* w有关美联储明年将多次降息的预期升温也给比特币带来提振，利率下降通常利好比特币和科技6 i& ^. F3 D) O8 q) V( y% `; o$ u' d
- a# ]/ |4 e7 v B% o9 u
股等风险较高的投资。 3 l7 m1 i( |% @; n% L( H( \
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芝加哥商品交易所(CME)的美联储观察(FedWatch)工具显示，联邦基金期货交易员预计，美联储- {2 |! Q4 R) K( G: h& D/ |
% l. I w" N9 L9 D明年3月降息25个基点的概率超过50%，高于一周前的21.5%。 + [! g) R( _/ g
( h7 v- B& F, h% {" k, Q1 t% O, y7 R
现在的问题是，比特币接下来会怎么走？除了供应和需求之外，比特别几乎没有什么基本面驱动1 V k* F0 L8 m3 x) S1 P4 n
; q; P6 B, K0 g因素，但分析人士认为，比特币还有更大的上涨空间。 ! `8 d# L7 I0 N' w* w& j' T
# k' G+ R4 [: l从技术面来看，比特币在过去被证明波动非常大的一个区间内拥有上涨动能。
" S, p/ B$ s+ j$ O; X$ y. {9 L- ~9 o" J4 J
更广泛地来看，虽然比特币有进入超买区域的风险，但交易数据显示，交易量仍然相对低迷，因此7 A, r% ~- e: U6 O' D4 O" j
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仍有许多交易商可能买入。
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4 N& x0 x, Y$ ]8 l4 ^2 t库普齐克维奇说：“越来越多的投资者会因为‘害怕错过’(FOMO)而买入。”FOMO是加密货币最强大的
% F% u5 N7 c, }7 ?2 O' Y v" e8 F' l+ _$ O3 i
推动力之一。 t! i; c* M4 s4 [" P6 d2 y
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02
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6 t1 i/ w# _- E8 \8 {有证据显示，许多散户和机构交易员仍在离场观望，近期的上涨可能会吸引更多人买入。 ' ?* N! S8 b, y) w
: O& f+ ^; h5 h' {" L. S' U9 T需求增加的同时，比特币供应紧张——许多长期持有者不愿卖出，价格可能还会走高。 % e6 l: u* w9 Q* L, u# E# c
5 z/ j3 A6 p4 I/ g4 x0 r加密金融服务公司Galaxy Digital的研究主管亚历克斯·索恩(Alex Thorn)说：“这次反弹让很多感兴趣
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" E" t9 d6 h2 M9 q的人离场观望，他们可能会随后参与进来。虽然最近已经大幅上涨，但比特币仍有继续上涨的空间。” ( [6 r' C( c: p6 U0 G+ n3 A# W$ ?
8 x2 h' A. G1 R5 u L数字资产基金ProChain Capital总裁兼联合创始人大卫·塔威尔(David Tawil)预计，比特币将持续反弹至; U% d! B+ v q; t
- q. q. J) g# j5 X今年年底，比特币ETF获批时，价格达到4.7万美元的高位。 ( `" o& }( w/ [6 F. l
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