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[lastpost] => 2782890 不太稳定的稳定币们（转） 1763576114 caoch
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比特币减半、比特币ETF获批、美联储降息这三件事被越来越多人
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1 Z2 n- M. \2 [7 h, o; s认为推动加密牛市的发动机。毫无疑问，比特币正在进入宏观金融世界，
9 S; m$ w7 B, M8 Z( S
3 Z. U3 q: u1 T/ N: L而传统金融大门向比特币彻底打开，迎接比特币的则是继承上一代财富
" H$ M' W. d7 R: t, O: \: C/ ], b6 B
的千禧一代。
* f! z% _. P6 o; i从比特币减半周期维度看，目前比特币确实已经进入新阶段。根据PlanB
$ r" P& b4 p# Y) Y. H
5 l; r# y8 p; B' ]7 q. N* I& I/ c% ^) R的S2F模型看，目前，比特币已经进入”减半前 6 个月 – 减半后 18 个月“& h1 a$ Q0 \: Z5 z3 I
8 x' _, ~: C8 Q0 S: H: D1 |
时期，在这个阶段，买入并持有的收益很好。除了比特币减半临近，加
+ Y; A T! K6 \. B8 Y/ R$ \# K0 `1 J' F- G) \9 |! E; e+ W
密资产监管合规之路出现重要转折点，比特币ETF推出似也呼之欲出。据
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5 u& ~# r. S5 d《比推》报道，2023年8月，法庭文件显示，华盛顿一个由三名法官组成5 u9 o; n" i: |- a5 \8 u
: l& V2 o1 l9 f. \- C/ r0 D的上诉小组推翻了美国证交会（SEC）阻止灰度 ETF 的决定。据《比推》2 ~# @6 y& w3 w4 R
! M5 m# b- P& F, n& f5 _报道，在Ripple案中，10 月 3 日，法官Torres 驳回了 SEC的上诉请求；- E& j( X2 z# Q; O# J9 J* Y
: p' W8 Y. J' ?6 c) u/ g10月19日，灰度在X平台发文表示已提交了S-3表格，作为将GBTC转换为9 p! z5 @1 }4 z) B
+ J3 m2 }* W! \6 B' nETF的努力的一部分。” 从近期美联储谈话看，美联储降息也基本确定。4 x# X% S: F' o( L9 Z7 P2 K; I
8 Z' k+ J6 k' p6 @- x据《比推》报道，美联储主席鲍威尔近日在新闻发布会上明确表达：降
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息已经进入决策视野，决策者正在思考、讨论合适降息合适。
2 s7 Z1 s3 W: s. O0 n' i6 u) ^; p' E( d( p5 l- }
与巨大利好预期相对应的则是，千禧一代一边继承财富，一边拥抱加密* E2 S0 m" S w4 z
) f ? f( n* C
世界。据Galaxy研报显示：千禧一代即将迎来有史以来最大规模的财富3 _( b5 Y, }1 m( [' q
2 }+ U& A' f6 O" O& O1 ], Q6 O* [
传承。尽管婴儿潮一代和更年长的一代只占美国成年人口的三分之一不
# w. z7 ?# l4 v+ O; p, L$ i
& }! }, @9 E& \: x5 n9 p. J6 O到，但却共同拥有美国家庭财富的三分之二（96 万亿美元），是千禧一8 E4 }; ^6 M5 ]+ K# u: o8 Q# a& T
4 d+ Y7 `' p( q q
代及更年轻一代财富的 11 倍以上。受到多次经济衰退、高昂的住房成
: c( M1 P) B9 W
8 o4 N! F+ Y1 W" o本和沉重的债务负担的影响，这些年轻一代更愿意接受替代性的金融体
; L! l: J! J6 A; g; ^% a$ A3 ~+ W. E0 h; D& G; s( a
系和投资，包括加密货币。许多调查显示，这一代相较父辈，对加密货* E- b$ M \' \' _# a4 T
) U3 y! A0 o% ~. ]+ J
币的采用或接受率至少高出 3 倍。估算表明，财富转移的影响可能导致) i% a/ A6 B" w* O( ^0 H8 P
! x) @' t, z) s& e5 S4 M未来 20 年内加密市场每天增加 2000 万至 2800 万美元的购买力。财富+ j( G+ m& P5 a$ c6 K( u
. g! q) w! ^! F, E- I5 [/权力向年轻一代的人口结构转变是不可避免的，这对加密货币是个好兆头。
: j/ X; P N, P; c# J
7 k% G, J; Q7 b5 o L9 \+ ^% y1 ~% m
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