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[lastpost] => 2785120 今日比特币新闻：比特币完美风暴：ETF 抛售潮、巨鲸抛售和看跌信号汇聚（转） 1764596948 g9527
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比特币减半、比特币ETF获批、美联储降息这三件事被越来越多人
) y7 u# V: f+ Z3 l5 {, v- b' c2 X
7 a) V+ s" Z( l1 M9 ~! s/ Y" T8 O' ]认为推动加密牛市的发动机。毫无疑问，比特币正在进入宏观金融世界，
% \, q' W O5 {. ^
# Z' w5 ^/ C2 x而传统金融大门向比特币彻底打开，迎接比特币的则是继承上一代财富
% a, K) E; e1 S C" V9 G$ z; h+ t) p
的千禧一代。
; C: M6 o" G! F( D从比特币减半周期维度看，目前比特币确实已经进入新阶段。根据PlanB# f, A) [- ~8 S2 p7 p
$ z! N7 J0 S, e
的S2F模型看，目前，比特币已经进入”减半前 6 个月 – 减半后 18 个月“
0 c- K5 P+ J' A8 S9 \4 ~; h0 ~. C
* `: o- R- i1 d$ @" @ 时期，在这个阶段，买入并持有的收益很好。除了比特币减半临近，加
9 w. N, S& q/ G: D% Q+ A4 z+ j( d1 A2 Y1 H! |$ B- i7 S7 U3 S- B; [) h
密资产监管合规之路出现重要转折点，比特币ETF推出似也呼之欲出。据
4 _1 B3 E3 h c, W% p
4 d- Q8 y( J$ W; {《比推》报道，2023年8月，法庭文件显示，华盛顿一个由三名法官组成
3 Z- T" D. O5 b% U; `
- k9 {1 M9 y5 @+ O的上诉小组推翻了美国证交会（SEC）阻止灰度 ETF 的决定。据《比推》6 l: e6 p) Z4 X J2 Y/ `. D
8 K: W2 L5 D0 q* a4 l; d* r6 I& Q
报道，在Ripple案中，10 月 3 日，法官Torres 驳回了 SEC的上诉请求；
+ K# F9 o; N( p5 q* N1 G: M x; M9 R6 Y, b) q# x
10月19日，灰度在X平台发文表示已提交了S-3表格，作为将GBTC转换为' }+ @# O* `; M, S1 K" ^
. ?: p* P2 Z+ x' Z/ p! r# {9 T7 X4 D4 oETF的努力的一部分。” 从近期美联储谈话看，美联储降息也基本确定。
5 d) W$ T0 X2 D! p. Y3 o- I& m9 n I
据《比推》报道，美联储主席鲍威尔近日在新闻发布会上明确表达：降/ v& Q P4 J# j' z: G
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息已经进入决策视野，决策者正在思考、讨论合适降息合适。! [/ {- |1 U7 n8 P5 j; a
8 w% l6 X/ d; o$ r- b, L与巨大利好预期相对应的则是，千禧一代一边继承财富，一边拥抱加密
# R8 z) y4 z* U) U" P; q O! j- Q, d- M* w) D$ _
世界。据Galaxy研报显示：千禧一代即将迎来有史以来最大规模的财富2 Y+ G2 P W5 U0 f X; j/ j! C, q/ d
4 K) d C+ V7 H传承。尽管婴儿潮一代和更年长的一代只占美国成年人口的三分之一不
2 e0 p& `; {8 r: `+ ~7 t' f( \
2 N0 Y' W6 E% @; p& K1 K; ~. C到，但却共同拥有美国家庭财富的三分之二（96 万亿美元），是千禧一' B8 ~+ [6 ~$ [/ t
5 F+ O: z7 Q" n: k% ]+ K: e$ v
代及更年轻一代财富的 11 倍以上。受到多次经济衰退、高昂的住房成- d- s7 q, R4 Q: T8 f! q) ~, @
5 o/ l! a& L4 J0 m本和沉重的债务负担的影响，这些年轻一代更愿意接受替代性的金融体
$ g& T% I1 g/ v+ b8 m% X
4 i. J5 I6 f/ \: y% D+ f系和投资，包括加密货币。许多调查显示，这一代相较父辈，对加密货2 f$ R5 ^+ @! P) y! u; I
1 o; N0 t$ D& ~# m/ V% v( j0 o: T- K币的采用或接受率至少高出 3 倍。估算表明，财富转移的影响可能导致( o6 q( N0 H7 w0 ]# E, w3 |1 a- c+ O9 f9 F
8 n I. Y. ~3 {/ f8 b未来 20 年内加密市场每天增加 2000 万至 2800 万美元的购买力。财富
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! ?5 S- p% \- n1 J3 I/权力向年轻一代的人口结构转变是不可避免的，这对加密货币是个好兆头。( k' \" |% r6 W' g# [ S
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