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[lastpost] => 2795987 山寨币交易量占加密货币总交易量的50%，超过比特币和以太坊。（转） 1768061862 jackcool1011
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比特币减半、比特币ETF获批、美联储降息这三件事被越来越多人, O2 y/ Z* `0 m+ `( w0 }. E! v
4 l' ]# _( r6 X _' d9 T认为推动加密牛市的发动机。毫无疑问，比特币正在进入宏观金融世界，! `- q# q. @- @ v. m, E+ C$ J
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而传统金融大门向比特币彻底打开，迎接比特币的则是继承上一代财富1 j. h! e. `+ ]% r x
5 g6 f2 a" z4 { J, C的千禧一代。 ~ t. H2 H- S% [. B
从比特币减半周期维度看，目前比特币确实已经进入新阶段。根据PlanB
- G& |0 H+ D. y8 p- y! G. `
4 Y# U! O9 `0 A' }! p+ x的S2F模型看，目前，比特币已经进入”减半前 6 个月 – 减半后 18 个月“
% H. ^4 f) x5 d, L" x, O I' f
$ t2 k. I8 p3 v" d" \3 P. i1 \ 时期，在这个阶段，买入并持有的收益很好。除了比特币减半临近，加
( \( T( j( m; O; [/ N J8 U H$ C/ ~3 p
密资产监管合规之路出现重要转折点，比特币ETF推出似也呼之欲出。据4 v3 x+ ~5 d5 `
7 {+ g: K& z# K0 G& H《比推》报道，2023年8月，法庭文件显示，华盛顿一个由三名法官组成 _9 k6 P4 w' M( g' Z
: m5 X: I' c5 m8 R& V' V& |的上诉小组推翻了美国证交会（SEC）阻止灰度 ETF 的决定。据《比推》+ h5 ~7 E. E3 u& D4 q; ]$ P9 s% h
( |! p; ~0 J$ Q
报道，在Ripple案中，10 月 3 日，法官Torres 驳回了 SEC的上诉请求；3 X! a# O8 B: u
+ u& r+ g2 U& b) S% w$ W/ u
10月19日，灰度在X平台发文表示已提交了S-3表格，作为将GBTC转换为5 @: c( [* f" Q1 w% V7 A- R: [
1 ]6 F( w0 x1 ?$ a: t) e WETF的努力的一部分。” 从近期美联储谈话看，美联储降息也基本确定。
+ U! K! g( S$ s _+ V; E, P1 h
+ R! o% a. p6 l4 C# ]% R据《比推》报道，美联储主席鲍威尔近日在新闻发布会上明确表达：降
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/ w: C$ p: M. M; Y& p/ o5 _# W息已经进入决策视野，决策者正在思考、讨论合适降息合适。
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2 y- I! _ p! u6 u+ W与巨大利好预期相对应的则是，千禧一代一边继承财富，一边拥抱加密
0 }3 z, E* ?/ S) W6 X* z; |; I+ r8 Z; T( r) b7 m
世界。据Galaxy研报显示：千禧一代即将迎来有史以来最大规模的财富
# w+ P# |2 C+ b) `1 }; a: o$ }- s+ Y' {- o
传承。尽管婴儿潮一代和更年长的一代只占美国成年人口的三分之一不
4 c2 Q0 z$ Q5 T! J1 u8 M- [: M7 E) Y, k( `5 V# @
到，但却共同拥有美国家庭财富的三分之二（96 万亿美元），是千禧一
4 K) ]" n5 H4 `) R
) Z4 R- T% E1 Z5 Z6 _ t2 I代及更年轻一代财富的 11 倍以上。受到多次经济衰退、高昂的住房成
9 y0 ]0 C% I, D2 x. j/ R# g! p9 C( b5 `& x6 w# u
本和沉重的债务负担的影响，这些年轻一代更愿意接受替代性的金融体
! w( n' R! m1 i$ {
7 ^" @0 u m5 X0 p, w) Y系和投资，包括加密货币。许多调查显示，这一代相较父辈，对加密货# n9 Q0 {& P9 Z, C i
+ S* w. K0 w+ @ D- _4 ]8 R4 C币的采用或接受率至少高出 3 倍。估算表明，财富转移的影响可能导致
! O( ~( l9 j6 z- C5 S+ t# S. s8 \" d1 k, L8 G5 r7 w
未来 20 年内加密市场每天增加 2000 万至 2800 万美元的购买力。财富
$ g5 f0 ~% A! m' Z
5 o9 a% X0 u! F1 Y' J2 _/权力向年轻一代的人口结构转变是不可避免的，这对加密货币是个好兆头。+ R- h, I9 W. G$ e0 I$ `. J. r: {/ A5 N
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