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[虚拟币交流]
上涨趋势回归、比特币11月将冲破新高、山寨季还有吗?(转)
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最近一个月,降息+大选的大环境让BTC从6万涨到接近7w的位置,MEME横飞,. `0 z e: A8 B7 a7 v
0 {3 n7 ^8 u2 R. u6 U- AETF现货也在持续流入,走势也是非常强势的,大部分山寨币也接近筑底,算是新一轮周期的开始。9 w! O$ L7 r) L: L2 o, {
( q: Q: R4 N$ N! c' S3 `这里依然看BTC往新高走,出现一批交易机会。7 F ^$ @- R( O3 ]+ a
4 ^0 L: ]* f8 e: {- j7 X: T4 K接下来多个关键因素推动大量资金流入:
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大选,双方候选人都支持比特币。
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美联储降息。0 h# R' H$ ~4 P4 x$ ~* |% [8 E
+ u5 j, |' p5 M) ?1 Z# [5 r! F2024年第四季度至2025年第一季度的160亿美元FTX赔付。9 V! @# \8 n0 s! P- {! `
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前三次大选前后,比特币都迎来了大涨,预计这届也是,不管谁当选总统,都不会改变比特币震荡上行的大趋势,只不过特朗普当选,BTC会涨得更猛,能大大缩短突破10万的周期。, m2 L* h6 y6 {9 o8 m: z
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如果你不了解洞悉主力的洗盘与出货要点,那么你将在币圈很难发财。
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7 U0 j; u# X5 ^# m0 q8 x以下是一些关键技巧:' L* R+ U C+ y0 u
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1- 关注成交量:洗盘时成交量通常会萎缩,而出货时则会放大。
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2- 留意币价位置:主力通常会在币价拉升 30%左右时进行洗盘,而当涨幅超过 60%时,就需要警惕出货的可能性。( n) O5 O8 \9 `/ V( U/ m' w
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3- 分析分时图:洗盘时的分时图往往上蹿下跳,而出货时的分时图则相对平稳。0 Y% g s2 A6 H
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当前山寨市场行情走势各异,进入自身周期底部盘整的时间阶段也各不相同。抄底哪个山寨,以及判断该山寨是否已进入自身底部。
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10月即将结束,11月1号的非农数据可能是突破的关键,因为非农数据后5号就是大选,相信数据面不会难看,毕竟这是4年一政、权利交替的关键时期,哪怕是表面工作也是需要去维护的。在加上美股这两天提前下跌洗盘,也符合我前天的分析每一轮大选公布前2周,美股都有提前下跌洗一波,待到新总统上任,在释放利好,美股顺势再创新高。! @0 Z* \: [' |$ I0 y& y1 b8 y
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比特币现在的走势基本上和美股挂钩,那么美股持续的创新高,那么比特币自然顺势突破前高,飞到更高的地方,所以11月份有很大的概率比特币会突破前高73880,到达75000,甚至80000,所以兄弟们接下来我们一起迎接比特币的春天吧。7 E% s7 O X, ~9 F' S
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虽然这轮比特币牛市跟90%的山寨都没什么关系,很是操蛋,但是只要比特币能够突破前高,至少山寨季还是有机会到来的。最近经常听到有人问eth为什么那么拉垮。5 {& D! T& Y/ _$ S6 ?0 o
7 R8 f B# d( }0 k毫无疑问,本质上是被资本冷落了。从3月中旬至今,从4k附近一路跌下来到最低饭2k附近基本被腰斩,如果不是9.18首次减息50个基点这个利好抽了一把,它就要直奔1600方向。这大半年时间里,每次大盘走回调,eth都是充当的急先锋,跌起来不输其他山寨。从这点可以看到它的弹性远不如以前。+ k# f% ~ h7 U8 q
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反观sol,从前年FTX暴雷黑天鹅飞出,跌到个位数后一路扶摇直上200,虽然最近半年内也接近腰斩,但弹性是很强的,同期逢高回踩的力度也远没eth大。两者一比较,就很清楚,这轮大周期资本青睐的是sol。
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sol 应该是第5个大机会(前4个分别是铭文、bome、pandora、goat)' x/ u ]# c5 f6 @0 J3 L+ j
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当前 sol 日收入高达870万美元,这是一些头部L2几个月的收入,sol链的活跃程度,加上meme大赌场地位的稳固,以及后续还有一个ETF的巨大利好。sol的etf通过是时间问题,综合考虑基本面和etf的可能性,持有sol会是beta优选。
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山寨季还有吗?' I; k$ Q0 c0 \
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1.板块轮动的行情一定还有,放心。
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2.大饼不创新高,各大山寨做市商不敢轻举妄动,只有少部分币在拉,大部分基本面趴在地上。) Y5 X2 |& w$ o* B* P% Q3 R
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3.千万不要看着别人的币拉了,就着急换(除非赔率性价比更高)。
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未来就是你一卖他就开始拉,你一追涨它就开始回调,反复你将心态炸裂。
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现在做好仓位管理就可以了。" h/ ~! e9 o2 |" i% S. r
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