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1. 宏观因素影响市场走势
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( D4 g! S. K. h6 C; P. J5 B过去一周市场涨跌主要受宏观经济数据影响,包括美国未来的降息预期、上周的非农数据和失业率,以及本周即将公布的PPI与CPI数据。
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PPI助推反弹:昨晚公布的PPI数据低于市场预期,被认为是近期少见的利好消息。PPI同比上涨3.3%(预期3.5%),核心PPI同比上涨3.5%(预期3.8%),这让市场信心得到了一定恢复。
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2 d( n1 y. s9 D. h( f' |CPI才是关键:今晚的CPI数据更为重要,市场预期CPI同比为2.9%(前值2.7%),核心CPI预期为3.3%。如果数据能保持在预期或持平的水平,大饼(比特币)可能重回10万美元上方,并延续市场的炒作行情。
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8 t: }2 H( x. t6 {; X2 D* v, @2. 比特币市场现状与未来预期0 O! y$ E: X7 |
+ `8 _6 E0 R8 O6 ^$ S" T$ V当前持仓成本:0 B* ^) r/ W2 b& c8 ?
$ B8 N A4 q% Q" B机构的平均持仓成本在8.1万美元左右;( c' \" [- H' z* n9 j, Y
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微策略因早期进场,平均成本约为6.2万美元;0 S, G; k/ G3 h' ~) T' ~" V
1 b' @4 s. M5 M% I- n. bETF持仓成本约在7万美元上下。& ^* j+ D9 N ~ m" m1 s
7 ^ ?1 j/ w9 U4 V% G- o& I, ]比特币价值回归:7 a8 Z, y. j$ V/ z6 G
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市场大部分散户的低价筹码已经交割完毕,当前持币主力成本价在6-8万美元区间。6 ~5 [+ T! {4 Y' x: |$ \' {
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随着更多公司和国家效仿萨尔瓦多将比特币纳入战略储备,比特币的流通将越来越少,机构预测其价格有望达到15万甚至20万美元。
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1 m# D: l# }8 k% O2 v( H1 p4 P加密资产的国家效应:萨尔瓦多因比特币政策而成为中美洲金融科技中心,吸引了像Tether这样的大型加密公司入驻。
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3. 市场热点与反弹情况. @4 x7 v i; J% m5 q. m) d
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ETH:
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; {' G/ k8 p& s2 p$ S: C虽然受到大量抛售的质疑,但以太坊价格总体稳定,汇率回升至0.033。
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% K/ Q8 G, g" Y& H机构普遍认为以太坊本轮高点或达到1万美元。, e+ _: a* d! ?1 G
. J5 ?1 f( e& t6 m; _BTC:4 b5 s- D; T3 Y
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尽管ETF持续外流且贝莱德带头抛售,比特币依然维持强势。
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/ z/ A2 d# @. F4 T如果今晚CPI数据利好,突破10万美元可能性极大。
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SOL与XRP:
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; k% ^+ I( L7 C3 wSOL走势强劲,被认为是AI生态的主导者。摩根大通预计SOL与XRP的ETF即将推出,或吸引150亿美元资金入场。6 s/ g# e$ @. Z: W* ^
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XRP走势超强,多次占据韩所榜首,有市场声音预测其价格达到10美元、市值超越以太坊。% v6 x9 y3 m' I4 J
8 H( m ~( H4 G4 `2 x* ~" v1 o9 S其他热点项目:
% `$ ?' }" \8 p- M& i7 C& F
/ q6 A z/ ?9 s: h涉及ETF或政策的项目如$hbar、$algo、$ada等走势同样强劲。
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山寨市场近期普遍上涨,市场预计Q1可能迎来牛市爆发。1 H" j+ f' y; a9 U2 ^% E: T
. h8 N5 z7 F: ?# G! R4. AI赛道与新兴项目, U; K6 x$ V; N0 v/ X8 ~! \4 y
6 a( n* b3 P6 G7 P: P& OAI领域表现突出,板块总市值达160亿美元,近期涨幅明显。! \' j4 q; {3 x/ T* Q
. M* R5 |: S2 ?蓝筹项目:如$ai16z、$virtual和$aixbt等市值迅速攀升,部分实现翻倍增长。
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8 q; E# ]! K' I, D6 |6 g: ]9 x' C8 g新兴项目:正经团队推出的AI项目表现稳健,例如$mates和$sora已获得市场认可。
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市场展望! Z9 ?5 {! K% f) R# M# T+ r
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随着宏观经济环境和政策明朗,加密市场有望迎来更多利好。山寨牛市或在第一季度爆发,AI、主流币、以及新兴应用赛道将继续成为市场焦点。8 I0 d8 V, L# C8 l c
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