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[lastpost] => 2818635 谁在砸盘比特币？巨鲸减持压力抵消ETF买盘，3月反弹难掩需求真空（转） 1775169934 whywhy
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比特币在特朗普关税威胁下遭遇重挫，曾经的"特朗普交易"热点正经历严峻考验。1 {! k' Y8 n- |3 O) A# q' M* l
0 f4 B! u- O a$ d7 {28日，比特币单日暴跌高达7.3%，跌至自去年11月以来的最低点，较历史高点下跌 25%。整个2月，比特币已下跌超过20%。若这一跌势持续到月底，将创下自2022年6月以来的最大月度跌幅。4 T. n4 ]; O+ B/ i! x3 P, S) S
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B, K' @/ n- s( B! b6 i( _此次暴跌并非比特币独自承受，以太坊、Polkadot和XRP等其他主要加密货币同日均下跌超过7%，显示出加密市场的普遍恐慌情绪。BTC Markets Pty Ltd的首席执行官Caroline Bowler表示：+ X. v2 B5 J# \4 e. b
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"上一次我们看到类似情绪还是在2022年的'加密寒冬'期间。这次暴跌可以视为对特朗普关税和地缘ZZ不确定性等宏观忧虑的直接反应。"
" d9 m0 D0 p" t& @
4 `( y. I2 @! D) Y3 A" v2 I"特朗普交易"幻灭：加密资产从狂欢到挫折
) r8 M3 g. R6 M9 ?- k. f* Z据央视新闻，特朗普于2月27日宣布，从3月4日起将对加拿大和墨西哥实施25%的关税。这一消息打击了市场此前对特朗普可能改变贸易政策路线的期望。
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! D: V* `) t+ k3 c+ h! z贸易紧张局势导致28日全球市场普遍出现避险情绪，亚洲股市几乎全线下跌，欧洲期货也出现下滑。但作为对风险情绪变化极为敏感的资产，加密货币成为受打击最严重的投资品类之一。
. X3 \1 S+ N8 B( O4 Q: J
: D$ W! e1 x/ X3 ?9 E比特币的暴跌凸显了市场情绪的急剧转变。曾经，买入比特币是最受欢迎的"特朗普交易"之一，投资者期望特朗普亲加密货币的政策立场将推动市场大幅上涨。加密托管公司Bitgo Inc亚太地区场外交易总监Stefan von Haenisch表示：
. P6 c- A# q+ \. ~* I7 S2 U2 e
: a; [% I" i! I" k$ F; C"考虑到当前宏观环境，我们现在的处境并不令人意外。"" i3 G! X0 v0 |9 l, Z
: M( n7 N9 A, p他补充说，交易员仍在等待特朗普为该行业提出具体措施，包括比特币储备计划。1 X4 j' |1 P. ?& A7 E O0 H' _2 `
0 U! a# s. h# g; a8 [( y2 s, q7 T市场前景：技术支撑与投资者撤资' I2 A5 x3 \: w- w- L
投资者现在被迫思考世界上最大的加密货币可能会跌至何处。加密平台YouHodler的市场主管Ruslan Lienkha通过技术分析指出，比特币在70000美元附近有支撑位，但他表示投资者不应假设比特币崩盘会那么严重。Lienkha指出：8 H7 k3 j2 u& c
! F& ?3 s+ A5 S% ^. c"只有在股票市场负面情绪主导的情况下，我们才会看到这一价位。"6 \6 G; H" Q" N, k. [* ?
+ S$ y) n$ N% P. c1 O$ Z/ s0 p负面情绪本周也冲击了现货美国比特币ETF，周二投资者净流出超过10亿美元，创下这些产品自去年推出以来的最大单日流出。; e2 H8 S& _. {
4 Z' i' y. K: O9 w# m P# j尽管市场遭遇挫折，特朗普已经做出一些令加密货币支持者欣喜的改变，包括在关键职位安排加密货币支持者。此前在前任主席Gary Gensler领导下对加密行业进行多年打击的美国证券交易委员会，近几周来已关闭了对几家加密机构的调查。" l0 D5 y/ s* q% H, \6 x: W
$ m1 r+ e: Z2 k+ P( F' e' E特朗普曾表示，他希望将美国打造成"地球的加密货币之都和世界比特币超级大国"。然而，市场目前的表现表明，实现这一愿景可能比预期更具挑战性。
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3 m% o1 b, b0 O1 e" r根据彭博社策略师Mark Cudmore的观点，真正的恐慌可能还未到来。他警告说：: c7 M* C; j* X% P
2 Q' s7 O. d* d$ b" `" q$ \$ c
"比特币未来总会经历另一次70%以上的崩盘，这是其固有特性。72000-74000美元区间可能是触发下一个加密寒冬的技术临界点。"
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