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以太坊预测转向看涨：第三季度可能达到 3000 美元吗？（转）
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随着 345 万 ETH 累计价格接近 2,500 美元，以太坊预测获得看涨权重。这是否加强了 ETH 在第三季度突破 3000 美元的理由？
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以太坊[ETH]第三季度开始强劲反弹，在不到一周的时间内收复了两个主要阻力位。$ a- @) w ~6 ^+ o" p1 I' a1 n1 @
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毫不奇怪，这种抛物线走势会促使交易员大量做空，其中 60% 的交易所头寸倾向于看跌。
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0 A% B. G5 M9 h a3 W; v要么是空头抢先拒绝，要么是他们低估了 ETH 冲动走势背后的力量。据 AMBCrypto 称，此次僵局的进展可能会影响未来一周以太坊的预测。
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第三季度以太坊预测的分歧
/ u- F3 k9 M' B1 g% e有趣的是，以太坊上涨近 7% 至 2,620 美元并非只是又一次反弹。相反，这是对上周 2.4 万美元下方窄幅区间的技术突破。! a/ T, q. \, d
/ }. ?- a" m$ p5 P' p( W @( R' g该区间是在 ETH 于 6 月 22 日跌至数月低点 2,114 美元后形成的。" T+ H- i- I, u% y
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ETH 在不到 20 个交易日内累计上涨近 23%。通常情况下，这种持续的盘整阶段会成为持续上涨的跳板。" F' ]5 P5 h+ |5 c
6 b# K6 e7 ~6 W' |' |但背景很重要。在 5 月至 6 月的周期中，类似的以太坊预测在 2.8 万美元时就失败了，未能突破 3000 美元。6 u+ T1 a7 m" H- G0 t
# Q' x; i+ A- A+ Q6 k0 x随之而来的是急剧的去杠杆事件，导致 ETH 在不到两周的时间内下跌了 20%。
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" {5 j8 P2 {- v+ x! S* y4 r快进到现在，以太坊的未平仓合约（OI）为 365 亿美元，抓挠回到 6 月中旬 417.5 亿美元的高点，就在那场大规模清算潮之前。$ D! ]1 w. x( m) a
5 {# c. i6 X' t3 V9 P& U1 {因此，空头纷纷涌入各大交易所，预期市场将再次出现上涨，这并不令人意外。7 p& N" I3 W9 k; u( t
2 e; ~& C+ {+ Z3 r7 U( G# O- M但这次的关键分歧是否会成为催化剂，证明空头过于倾向于不再适用的叙述——这可能会重新调整以太坊未来的预测？6 c6 D0 u* M" z, w
4 v" N! G" Q4 l" g! T5 `ETH 奠定了坚实的基础
- ]: M- D6 t- z3 d4 s以太坊在七月份的开始并不平静。在本月第一天大幅下跌 3.2% 之后，E第二天，TH 股价迅速反弹，上涨 6.86%，引发了典型的空头挤压。
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至关重要的是，以太坊预测的反弹不仅仅是由 ETH/BTC 比率的 3.78% 飙升所推动的。
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来自 Glassnode 的链上数据亮点2,513 美元至 2,536 美元的区间是主要需求区域，该水平已积累超过 345 万 ETH，这标志着 ETH 成为数月来最强劲的支撑区之一。
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; H4 \6 {1 y) N G+ S有证据表明，现货 ETH ETF流入量急剧飙升7 月 3 日，该片上映票房达到 1.48 亿美元，创下近一个月以来单日最高纪录。
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9 f ?/ Z) A- z* e" i) q事实上，7 月份 ETF 总流入量目前已达到 3 亿美元，凸显了现货需求的稳步增长。
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这种分歧很重要。
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+ z0 d! p' f) ^/ a ^) Q9 m+ _将阻力位转化为支撑位是收复高点的第一步。随着现货资金流入的增加，以太坊的预测似乎稳步迈向其 3000 美元的目标，并且随着第三季度的展开，以太坊可能还会进一步上涨。2 \ ^$ [ _* v
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