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[虚拟币交流]
比特币下跌，黄金触顶——但 Uptober 尚未结束（转）
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今年十月已经测试了比特币的[BTC]信徒。在通常被称为“Uptober”的月份过半时，BTC 发现自己处于陌生的境地，遭遇了历史上最糟糕的月中表现之一。
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% F8 u& M4 U# l5 p! n2 J但你看不到的是，比特币收盘上涨的可能性仍然很大，罕见的BTC-黄金图表细节也表明可能已经触底。
' u/ k7 \) V0 f3 k1 D' j9 M6 U* d3 C( j& k: j7 I* a2 i8 }
Uptober 能否如期实现目标，还是说这将是它的终结？+ l) R4 D7 S' W2 m
$ U1 g7 h, N0 w( { |开局艰难，但历史看好牛市& \/ ?/ ]+ S6 L2 C
2025 年 10 月已经赢得了比特币十月份表现为有记录以来第二糟糕。对于通常看涨的月份来说，这是一个令人惊讶的转折。: g% a0 n2 J4 Y4 O" F8 s( ]
- u% F/ S$ [& H! [: a* T来源：Alphractal: M) @; C2 I& s* w
4 ~ y" K) i& |15年来，只有四个10月份收盘下跌。但鉴于比特币最终上涨的可能性高达73%，胜算仍然对比特币有利。 B" A0 v% Z( g1 Q
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尽管开局不稳，但许多人相信本月结束前可能会转为看涨，保持这种势头。( q0 `+ O# I9 p& B& Z( a
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事情变得有趣了
2 w( j7 }+ n- L# s8 sBTC/黄金比率中罕见的信号表明形势可能很快就会发生转变。" A L: T k* x5 F& @7 I# _
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来源：X! `" F4 E3 q ^! y' Q
+ }, b9 y% j/ j& b2 W- v/ [4 X5 p根据最近的数据，该比率已达到迄今为止仅在主要市场底部出现的水平，而这些时刻往往是从黄金转向比特币的最佳时机。; A- G) b( i) G# s9 Q
3 Z: x+ |4 q3 a0 o8 Y# R4 o; G7 |BTC/黄金震荡指标徘徊在-1.8左右，从历史上看，这与BTC开始跑赢黄金的周期低点相关。
; P* g6 v1 H( E t$ Y+ [' c6 r" \$ h% v
正如 Alphractal 首席执行官 Joao Wedson 所说，该图表“基本上是在大声疾呼”现在是“出售黄金、购买比特币的时候了”。9 v; ]) [( l, m! I7 e- i
" y) k7 m, V! t- y0 s随着黄金价格处于高位，而比特币出现触底信号，风险回报方程现在可能更倾向于加密货币，而不是传统的避风港。: g ~& t0 Q/ z3 \2 q+ q- |
- S q2 I h+ y0 V& {8 e! v p空头在 10.7 万美元附近失去动力5 f1 s6 T+ _7 {9 D' Z0 X
经过几天的持续抛售，截至发稿时，比特币似乎稳定在 107,000 美元左右。
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来源：TradingView
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) D1 O: P R1 P& w9 q日线图显示看跌势头减弱，RSI 指标显示 BTC 处于超卖区域。与此同时，MACD 图柱趋于平缓；如果买盘活跃，则可能出现动能逆转。' a: L5 `3 [2 e% y$ f& v) r6 O6 I
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然而，BTC 的交易价格仍然低于关键 EMA（20、50、100），整体趋势仍看跌。& o" v+ P i# R3 d& X# e$ w
]$ S, Y4 F9 A1 [/ D8 p4 V2 Q8 h! r突破 110,000 美元的决定性举措可能确认复苏，但在此之前，有点乐观永远不会伤害任何人。
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十月才过一半别急着下结论，比特币这货向来爱搞幺蛾子 |
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这波跌得挺狠，但老韭菜都懂，Uptober还没完呢 |
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