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[虚拟币交流]
加密货币领域智商最高的专家发布了新的48小时比特币走势预测（转）
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自称“世上最聪明的人”屡次预测比特币价格失误？ _5 C3 P8 {/ U# @4 b: r
金，一位韩国网络名人，2025年末开始流行他曾多次自称智商为 276，并声称自己的市场观点优于传统分析。7 a. B' n: U6 I( S$ B& v7 t
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他的比特币预测尽管许多交易员对它们持怀疑态度，但它们往往能迅速走红。
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11月，金预测比特币将飙升至 22 万美元。45天内，预测未能实现。
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9 l1 O; B2 E: Y5 }去年12月，他还声称比特币将在一周内突破10万美元。! J3 U! [) a4 u6 T1 R6 c/ ?
9 o% ]3 w8 H) V8 _$ E相反，受宏观经济不确定性、年底仓位调整和上涨动能减弱的影响，比特币在 12 月的大部分时间里都在 9 万美元以下交易。: u; V" o7 G0 u q' z
( i$ {9 U! n! _! x9 y当时的背景很重要。金正恩早期的预测是在比特币缺乏明确催化剂、整体风险情绪依然脆弱的时期做出的。市场根本不支持他预测的那种抛物线式的上涨行情。: F" e2 n" v. e7 ^' r
9 y4 y! ?( I3 U6 s! h本周的安排看起来有所不同，但变化并不大。
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比特币图表再次转牛市了吗？: X- Q7 t4 u- o% K: b
比特币重回 94,000 美元此前，美国股市开盘走强，风险偏好情绪升温。华尔街投资者认为，周末委内瑞拉局势升级的事件已得到控制，不太可能扰乱全球市场。+ z' D \4 M0 j6 T
4 Q; b$ n* h2 s, @) n' U股市上涨，能源股表现优异，加密货币跟随股市走势，而非作为避险资产。
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然而，此次上涨并不意味着比特币价格会在48小时内突破10万美元大关。比特币价格仍然对股市情绪十分敏感。
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虽然市场动能有所改善，但还没有明显的恐慌性购买、供应冲击或通常会推动六位数快速波动的结构性催化剂的迹象。% {, \$ Y1 g7 ?+ G+ e' N) F8 }
' u/ f$ k7 g4 v! V3 v/ B1 |9 J此外，链上数据也削弱了即将出现垂直突破的可能性。
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5 n7 H: v8 F4 x( G5 s h虽然长期持有者（LTH）的支出在11月下旬出现激增，但其中很大一部分来自交易所内部转账，尤其是Coinbase。这些并非真正意义上的市场分销。
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虽然长期持有者在 11 月下旬转移了大量比特币，但其中大部分活动来自内部交易所转账，尤其是 Coinbase 的转账，而不是真正抛售到市场上。
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8 l$ H1 Y+ \. Z/ s% D) p' T' S剔除内部波动后，长期持有者的行为看起来活跃但不极端。这表明他们可能正在进行重新布局，而不是出现足以引发剧烈突破的那种需求激增。: w' O; z6 x" N, E8 Q
! ~1 v5 Z/ r' q' ^: \1 n衍生品融资保持稳定。交易所资金流入较为平缓。波动性有所上升，但并未出现爆发式增长。换言之，此轮上涨行情较为可控，而非狂热。
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金正恩的最新预测与市场乐观情绪相符，但他的时间表仍然十分激进。比特币或将测试10万美元附近的心理阻力位。如果风险偏好在未来几周内保持不变。/ P" L# h5 d5 D1 y8 g, ?2 P8 l
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然而，短期内的突破可能需要比市场情绪改善更强劲的催化剂。$ a O; b: H5 S( p
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目前来看，这种说法介于信心和一厢情愿之间。比特币确实再次出现波动，但市场交易的仍然是结构，而不是口号。
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哈哈，这哥儿的预测跟过山车似的，真真假假让人看不懂了 |
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