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[1754] => 虚拟币存提
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当前离线
经验:
天策币:
活跃币:
策小分:
总在线: 2734 小时
本月在线: 69 小时
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截至 2026 年 2 月，加密市场仿佛进入了寒冬。ETH 跌破1900，今年开局创下历史最差表现之一，较 2025 年高点下跌超过 60%。
2 W! ]" I! ]8 C9 A6 j) Z# `4 _8 |9 j
1 M6 m6 q) E5 t市场情绪极度恐慌，甚至连内部人士卖币都加剧了压力。3 {* V5 Z1 z; t. v$ ]4 z' }
一、先说技术面" s2 E* X' r, y9 k% @! _# ]4 Y+ G
这一点也是我在社区反复强调的，K线上我们经历了急跌，横盘，而最近的下跌完美符合预期的最后一跌！$ j* C; Z" U6 `# X$ \
而我能做的就是让大家拿住，甚至也来到完美的定投区间，可以参考22年的走势，这是最后一跌！. p. ^6 w4 U- q1 Y$ M3 ?! N
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8 a/ k T$ n0 F0 l二、再看宏观
+ a3 @; f7 S9 Q/ T) e+ D以太坊2月日活跃地址维持在55万-70万 （主网），1-2月曾接近/突破100万 新高区间。7日/30日均线仍在上行，证明真实用户和DApp活跃度在增强。/ i# y( [( R/ G; _
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, X1 F$ }5 R) u- [5 W 7 x3 J3 t- X5 e" H& _- Y4 f& Q/ X8 x
2月7日单日交易量达2.896M历史最高，2月22日仍维持在170万 。2026年初整体较2025年同期大幅回升，稳定币和L2活动是主要驱动。
1 u6 v" s6 J. G. h# d" ^4 {4 D/ ?) F7 q7 g: N; }3 |/ X
$ T G' T z8 ^. u! x . V% H7 b$ x2 X" n5 e0 }
ETH链上稳定币总供应约158-183B USD（占全球50%以上），2025-2026年持续爬升并创新高，说明稳定币持续增长！
; [2 D/ F ]% ]9 @$ ]* Z, S3 T; ] M2 X# I' x2 J$ [* p* q
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) E2 m/ ?3 R% l1 y交易所ETH储备减少持续下降,全交易所ETH储备降至16.2M ETH（2016年以来最低），2026年初持续净流出。" m2 I5 g) U) @$ }
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所以，结合质押锁定，有效流动供应大幅收紧（约45% ETH已illiquid）, 尽管ETH价格短期承压，但网络基本面在2026年2月正处于爆发前夜
7 f2 y8 { ~5 g- s" M/ q三、机构在买，而不是跑
( V- m5 R$ [8 b n4 H8 _散户恐慌，机构却在布局。ETF 资金流入恢复，企业金库在低位配置 ETH。 传统金融机构持续在以太坊上做代币化产品。; _- ?$ p& }- y* r L
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1月整体净流出2.53亿美元，但2月17日单日净流入4863万美元（BlackRock ETHA单日 2289万领跑），2月13日也曾翻正 1026万。2 _0 @: b; p2 G+ z* B6 w
近期虽有波动，但已出现多次正流入/零流出，累计AUM仍超115亿美元，显示机构在$1900附近开始重新布局。& f7 C ^6 h- `& q0 ` j n6 [
四、2026 年路线图聚焦
9 W7 ]7 }3 h% _$ S- s升级方向包括：
; T2 r: _: A: B. s* i' l) R+ N提升 Gas 上限" @% c. F. J1 ^+ H
. k0 `5 S5 Z5 v9 P2 N2 C$ |增强 L2 互操作性7 s6 F. E4 x- I: v( k
9 j# _, D8 }* ~0 l8 N q) W. c
扩展零知识基础设施/ A6 T! v* n. u* V- m
' R Q, K( {4 d# [4 R, g$ a账户抽象
. z4 c3 X% a9 m# b: X) _0 L
! K2 H7 C1 d# k1 B d y H抗量子安全
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Harden the L1：后量子密码、FOCIL抗审查、网络韧性测试，V神也强调“不再是UX vs 安全，而是提升安全的UX”8 i/ d; e5 o3 f# T
' H- B6 d- J. P( t所以，如果宏观稳定、资金回流，ETH 不需要炒作，只需要被重新定价。
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. r' A. h. \, u, a' q) F6 [这不是盲目乐观，我坚信，冬天往往是最大反弹的起点。 |
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当前离线
经验:
天策币:
活跃币:
策小分:
总在线: 75 小时
本月在线: 14 小时
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ETH 这价位确实有点诱人了，但真进去还得看后续怎么走 |
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当前离线
经验:
天策币:
活跃币:
策小分:
总在线: 123 小时
本月在线: 17 小时
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这波跌得挺狠，但看数据好像真有人在默默抄底，心态得稳住啊 |
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