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一、我们先假设一个抽样数W={W(ij)|i,j∈N}, W(ij)就是比赛的进球结果,i,j分别表示主客队的进球数。
: k5 f, k* q8 \2 s H# _那么,平局、主胜、客胜就有以下表达式:
6 _, d: p9 s* W4 @# l! MA(d) = {W(ij)|i=j, i∈N, j∈N}) p9 _! `, {% M4 X. b6 G
A(h) = {W(ij)|i>j, i∈N, j∈N}
8 P) B/ V: V/ M. y6 C4 RA(a) = {W(ij)|i 接着我们引入一个符号P(i)表示平胜负的概率,P(Ai)∈[0,1]:
1 x% ?- [7 a, [P(i)=P(Ai), i∈{0, 1, 2}& Q3 }( x1 `$ \9 o2 r. p
二、首先来说说平手盘(即0:0Handicaps或我们经常在国外上看到的(Moneyline)
* |3 J. g* X Q# R* P$ U2 L假设b(h)表示主队的投注总数,b(a)表示客队的投注总数,那么投注主客队的回报总数额为:
, m2 g0 i5 n; S+ h8 g2 K5 c2 w{b(h) , 即上面所述的A(d)结果发生
$ t/ I5 E) }. V# G6 M. \1 ]' \) wR(1)={O(h)*b(h),即上面所述的A(h)结果发生0 \6 ~# n* t& Q
{0 , 即上面所述的A(a)结果发生* t& [- n0 C$ ^5 @, }
以及
) S0 p5 v, |4 W8 N{b(a) , 即上面所述的A(d)结果发生
! z8 `* M7 F0 Q g) B. ]1 oR(2)={0, 即上面所述的A(h)结果发生
0 O) W; |7 n( ~8 t* J: y* z2 J{O(a)*b(a),即上面所述的A(a)结果发生
! m, H, }3 Y: e$ M4 P如果O(h)表示平手盘下的主队赔率,O(a)表示平手盘下的客队赔率: `3 ~& |" k8 L$ @# O+ R, Q- ]
那么投注主客的期望回报总数分别为1 Z# r; n5 p7 M, o2 \
E[R(1)]=P(d)*b(h)+P(h)*O(h)*b(h)=b(h)*[P(d)+p(h)O(h)]
8 ^: m( ^; y6 zE[R(2)]=P(d)*b(a)+P(a)*O(a)*b(a)=b(a)*[P(d)+p(a)O(a)]
# l) b$ y/ I1 \: I0 p- J按照真实赔率(暂不包含庄家优势),我们可以认为实际投注回报与期望投注回报相等
' R$ z* ^- m' ?# }* \7 l' PE[R(1)]=b(h)*[P(d)+p(h)O(h)]=b(h)
0 w5 A% y, X5 f# C" C& r' MP(d)+p(h)O(h)=1) O6 z9 M2 K% N% K2 Q! d [
O(h)=(1-P(d))/P(h)-----这里就得出平手盘下计算主队赔率的公式
, B( W9 }- u) \$ x! ^E[R(2)]=b(a)*[P(d)+p(a)O(a)]=b(a)+ P; h9 Q/ D3 ]$ f F% \2 i* n
P(d)+p(a)O(a)=11 x2 x; i# O! u. B g: H
O(a)=(1-P(d))/P(a)-----这里就得出平手盘下计算客队赔率的公式# X6 w4 @0 A$ f: h( w9 z5 F( _
在极端情况下,可以认为平手盘亚洲赔率(或moneyline),就是在不发生平局结果条件下(就是公式中P(d)=0),主胜客胜概率的倒数
9 }& y( W4 u; m0 L) C三、半球盘的计算描述' p0 o" k' B$ m! @3 [ ?' ~& c7 q
接着我们来看看主队(HOME TEAM)受半球(1/2:0 Handicaps的情况) M, n3 H+ E9 C. T3 r& E2 w
还是假设b(h)表示主队的投注总数,b(a)表示客队的投注总数,那么投注主客队的回报总数额为:/ n+ h+ J; C3 E) \* D% I
{O(h)*b(h),即上面所述的A(d)结果发生
- E: }. B9 z8 K' n2 GR(1)={O(h)*b(h),即上面所述的A(h)结果发生
, c( v) _& m5 X y0 H' Q) V{0 , 即上面所述的A(a)结果发生
J( g# C$ O! ~, V% p, z( E以及
/ }" A; @9 C/ @{0 , 即上面所述的A(d)结果发生* b T+ P% O) b2 ^ x8 ^8 i( J
R(2)={0, 即上面所述的A(h)结果发生4 {& d7 H. Z5 w* o6 L
{O(a)*b(a),即上面所述的A(a)结果发生8 I8 V/ |& g$ l+ S
如果O(h)表示受半球盘下的主队赔率,O(a)表示客队赔率
; ?/ i4 h) I% ^! n投注主客的期望回报总数分别为- F$ e( G! Q7 i }
E[R(1)]=P(d)*O(h)*b(h)+P(h)*O(h)*b(h)=b(h)*O(h)*[P(d)+p(h)]$ M. E Z% l( p9 B
E[R(2)]=P(a)*O(a)*b(a)! l2 Z5 w/ U; [$ A8 n4 R' _1 N, c
假设实际投注回报与期望投注回报相等
& G; L. s& H( O" n: k: IE[R(1)]=b(h)*O(h)*[P(d)+p(h)]=b(h)8 k+ d {4 }" e# i5 R
O(h)*[P(d)+p(h)]=13 P' r. C: u% Q/ ]/ ^2 n& r
O(h)=1/[P(d)+p(h)]7 H* e6 ]0 |1 g- v, L
E[R(2)]=P(a)*O(a)*b(a)=b(a)* d4 {9 e" N \) i3 S. |+ w3 g! q( `2 T* q
P(a)*O(a)=1
& U3 J# n3 K' I5 Q R! \7 l9 Z7 MO(a)=1/P(a)
% q2 ^+ K. }+ \6 z2 ?9 T: g. A同样道理可以计算让半球(0:1/2 Handicaps)的亚洲盘赔率
* Z) Q# A. Z+ b0 n: o1 JO(h)=1/p(h)
( s& I5 W; @2 qO(a)=1/[P(d)+p(a)]# _( H. c) \% m6 N# ]/ C9 V
四、平半球盘的计算描述
% x7 w9 G4 y4 v! b这个稍复杂一点8 X* `; U- R- a5 E& a; c- d
接着我们来看看主队(HOME TEAM)受平半球(1/4:0 Handicaps的情况)
; V& `# ~7 Z O: L- b还是假设b(h)表示主队的投注总数,b(a)表示客队的投注总数,那么投注主客队的回报总数额计算:
3 l; S2 `6 D! |- Y4 G{[O(h)+1]/2×b(h), 即上面所述的A(d)结果发生
- p5 U: w* n L u- G+ eR(1)={O(h)*b(h), 即上面所述的A(h)结果发生4 W2 s6 B5 }! x% ]
{0, 即上面所述的A(a)结果发生
4 P7 ^8 r: O' H/ ?; A1 t以及
6 K* d$ y( Y1 k. J{1/2×b(a) , 即上面所述的A(d)结果发生
% d7 m" F4 ~" [% R4 AR(2)={0, 即上面所述的A(h)结果发生
# ]- z# ]5 j6 L U- B7 n0 X{O(a)*b(a), 即上面所述的A(a)结果发生 V7 k3 K/ f9 |% z
投注主客的期望回报总数分别为' W! K' e$ }5 l" f1 y: R* M
E[R(1)]=P(d)×{[O(h)+1]/2}×b(h)+P(h)×O(h)×b(h)=b(h)*(P(d)×{[O(h)+1]/2}+P(h)×O(h))
- S2 C& g9 G4 {E[R(2)]=1/2×b(a)×P(d)+P(a)*O(a)*b(a)=b(a)*[1/2×P(d)+P(a)*O(a)]$ g* P j+ E3 J" I) t
和上面计算过程相似,得出:% ^" V. {4 }+ ~/ k
E[R(1)]=b(h)*(P(d)×{[O(h)+1]/2}+P(h)×O(h))=b(h)9 y; e+ j g9 m( Q% b# L. u5 d
P(d)×{[O(h)+1]/2}+P(h)×O(h)=1
# q* t: F3 k* J1 E/ NO(h)*[1/2*P(d)+P(h)]+1/2*P(d)=1
- O/ H& ]) I$ n0 | zO(h)=[1-1/2*P(d)]/[1/2*P(d)+P(h)]=(1-P(d)/2)/(P(d)/2+P(h))$ P3 ^2 w; E m- N0 Z- q
E[R(2)]=b(a)*[1/2×P(d)+P(a)*O(a)]=b(a)+ K0 x, r2 t% H# S
1/2×P(d)+P(a)*O(a)=1
6 g9 i$ T0 Z) r$ Z$ R4 S2 b" `O(a)=[1-1/2×P(d)]/P(a)=(1-P(d)/2)/P(a), a* ^, |0 H, N) a2 [9 @
同样主队让平半就分别是* \* l8 ^4 ]% G5 K" M$ ~
O(h)=(1-P(d)/2)/P(h)
. d' T4 e/ y+ IO(a)=(1-P(d)/2)/(P(d)/2+P(a))1 v1 s. |* {7 t# r
五、一球、两球等整数盘(这里先暂时说主队让1球的情况,0:1,Handicaps,其它可以类推的)
+ d) P" G+ v1 |% }9 N. f可以采用类似公式,在(一)中我们分别用A(d)、A(h)、A(a)描述平局、主胜、客胜事件的发生。现在改用另外的符号代替,如B(d)、B(h)、B(a),同时除了平、胜、负概率P(i)(i=d,h,a)外,还需要引入一个一个概率值P(hX)来代表主队赢一球(X=1)、二球(X=2)...的概率,下面来进行演算; k. I: X* r( A1 N
B(d) = {W(ij)|i=j+k, i∈N, j∈N,k∈N}
* V8 w& q: R, F, z' I/ tB(h) = {W(ij)|i>j+k, i∈N, j∈N,k∈N}
& A# k3 l s7 u! ~" ?7 [5 YB(a) = {W(ij)|i i,j分别表示主客队的进球数,k代表让球数
/ B4 k2 i9 s, W" _接着,假设b(h)表示主队的投注总数,b(a)表示客队的投注总数,那么投注主客队的回报总数额为:
! P* C' b$ _- p0 i5 H% b$ S{b(h)*O(h) , 即上面所述的B(d)结果发生
; T6 K( b l" q9 [9 o7 z( \R(1)={b(h)-O(h)*b(h),即上面所述的B(h)结果发生2 L- {7 P# G0 X) k# ?/ z. z7 I
{0 , 即上面所述的B(a)结果发生
" [7 H# |( u. @. F以及
- k- B7 ^! q' c H# X @ c{b(a) , 即上面所述的B(d)结果发生
& l; w! a( s- ^! r) Q5 T7 o# R! QR(2)={0, 即上面所述的B(h)结果发生
7 j, ?+ a+ G% a2 V{O(a)*b(a),即上面所述的B(a)结果发生* e% o. T* F# N- `
投注主客的期望回报总数分别为
I, M3 \& N0 d* Z) d2 uE[R(1)]=P(h)*b(h)*O(h)+P(h1)*(b(h)-O(h)*b(h))=b(h)*[P(h)*O(h)+P(h1)-P(h1)*O(h)]
! }$ V3 w' r6 }1 mE[R(2)]=P(h1)*b(a)+(1-P(h))*O(a)*b(a)=b(a)*(P(h1)+O(a)-P(h)*O(a))0 @. q. ^4 ~& {) l, v( {; u, ]
假设实际投注回报与期望投注回报相等! F+ Y( s! K9 _. b9 L0 w% m" Q3 d
E[R(1)]=b(h)*[P(h)*O(h)+P(h1)-P(h1)*O(h)]=b(h): i# p1 w# F& B/ x2 ~2 T
P(h)*O(h)+P(h1)-P(h1)*O(h)=1( _8 c5 Y& ~. U9 Q& z: r" U
O(h)*(P(h)-P(h1))=1-P(h1)9 a5 k0 Y# D6 U9 y4 O
O(h)=(1-P(h1))/(P(h)-P(h1))
4 S6 w3 S! I8 X9 Y% FE[R(2)]=b(a)*(P(h1)+O(a)-P(h)*O(a))=b(a)
- d3 j s$ t B# G) r( O; WP(h1)+O(a)-P(h)*O(a)=1! ?: K O9 G/ B/ j! \8 }& F2 ?
O(a)*(1-P(h))=1-P(h1)
! K' o- @1 \* s8 MO(a)=(1-P(h1))/(1-P(h))
! O8 ?0 L/ \7 ?2 D以上(五)部分是让一球的情况,让两球以上整数盘和反过来受让整数盘是可以同样演算的。7 ?& T+ ~& r! @& |7 M5 R
简单小结一球或整数盘,其实理论的演算过程不难,但是如何准确计算赢整数球的概率(P(hi)就是其中的难点,这已经涉及到如何用相对动态实力差或球差来计算各种赢球概率(是指赢1、2、3...球的概率,也可以说是赢球比分概率)的问题,使用自己数据模型里的数据来计算。 |
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