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[打法交流]
百家乐高手玩家的内功心法:凯利注码法(凯利缆)(转载)
[复制链接]
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有许多会算优势的博友问我,如何控制震荡?要准备多少资金?要下多大的注?要多久能回报?3 i" O' E* p2 u5 z9 t
9 O2 A5 {4 E/ S/ z) m c9 h6 v6 k会问我这些问题,表示功力不到家!只会算EV确不会管理资金,只知其然却不知其所以然。& s& W s" M& m" m$ Y
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其实优势玩家的资金管理,不是经济学、不是统计学、更不是管理学、而是数学!!!. N9 N1 H, m/ X4 W' I- N3 L" ~
0 J# b# d4 U" C1 N& p首先,我问一个很简单的问题,有什么注码法,能让你就算一直输,也永远不会破产?( b$ ^; Y# \- a$ ?% `' ?
3 L% q1 `9 j- N8 }请思考1分钟,再来看下面的答案。
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' s+ h% J* t% J I+ H答案就是用比例下注,就永远不会破产!1 J7 d E2 l' b! k3 P0 R
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例如:我每次都下我总资金的10%,如果输了,我就下剩下的90%的10%,那么不管我输多少次,我始终都留下我上次下注之前的90%,永远都还会剩下钱。. u7 R4 M* v% d8 N6 s5 F
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现在的问题就是,到底要下总资本的百分之几最好?7 _* k/ a8 _9 |0 ^4 m) _" c* [
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我们先来看一个0和的游戏。! ?( }0 \: R! ]7 U. b
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玩2手,输一次赢一次,我用10%下注,不管先输(剩下90%,再下10%也就是90%*10%=9%)再赢(90%+9%),还是先赢(剩下110%,再下110%的10%=11%)再输(110%-11%),都是剩下99%,公式是(1+10%)*(1-10%)=99% 损失了1%的本金!9 p9 E" i- ^- D
/ L2 R g/ Z5 z$ M8 D. ]' l; i7 r玩200手,输100次赢100次,用10%下注,(1+10%)^100 * (1-10%)^100=36.6% 损失了65.4%的本金!玩越多手,输的越多。
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这个实验说明,使用永远不会破产的注码,虽然永远也输不完,但是就算玩一个不输不赢的游戏,也会一直越输越多。
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: w2 M4 w7 ]/ V/ N: M% x/ p1 i接下来,大家都知道我们玩一个+EV的游戏,赢的会比输的多,+1%的游戏,就是200手里面赢101手输99手的意思,那么如果用我们永远不会破产的注码来打,会不会赚钱呢?& Y9 o6 T. @2 c. ^! A; y8 D2 ?$ v2 `9 N
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玩200手,输99次赢101次,用10%下注,(1+10%)^101 * (1-10%)^99=44.7373% 比0和的好点,但是依然不会赢。& _) P9 k) f# H' Y) K/ g
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再来看看如果下5%,(1+5%)^101 * (1-5%)^99=86.051% 比下10%好多了。
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: x3 Y! t6 Q) ?% o; h: x如果下1%呢?(1+1%)^101 * (1-1%)^99=101.005% 终于发现能永远不会破产又赚钱的地方了。, }, ]# z' H! ^
% Q9 p5 w( e8 n但是这真的是最好的吗?我帮大家节省时间,我直接把下注的比例跟获利结果,用表格的形式拉出来。
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/ l& g9 c8 O$ D下注比例 本金结果
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8 | s" w) L3 r' _0 H" d0.1% 1.0019022 X. M. P, b/ `$ r/ t
6 I, M: U% S+ w7 l5 O, L4 U5 R
0.2% 1.003606
( ]$ l+ F5 G$ F! s" g- l" f9 ^; ~/ [! n- {
0.3% 1.005113. @8 `2 w! f5 b& E- p
4 p( R0 I9 M$ Z2 m5 _0.4% 1.006421( j7 B, T; M7 E+ y
% f) P/ @' m B5 I$ @! W9 v' r+ a0.5% 1.007528
* X& K5 H6 B* H
) H; J5 X: D; L1 R6 W7 Z% B+ v0.6% 1.008435
+ h- r2 _! Z- r* n# T2 [! y7 G0 t( G7 N- |; M
0.7% 1.009142
4 ]& y1 D. M% y& h2 C3 u! Z- `4 [. Z2 \ M/ T8 C6 I
0.8% 1.009646
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0.9% 1.0099493 V7 }& L) Y, k7 t: V0 x8 o# [
5 u q, `9 {* F' ]6 D! N. \* l
1.0% 1.01005* ]2 c: a+ [ G* o% j! U
6 c# V* U/ e# ]& |/ C; R1.1% 1.009949
& f5 d* }, _* _. k" a' W: H9 v \# u- e& m
1.2% 1.0096460 ?0 l+ X. X3 v
{9 i! v& M7 ?0 b- l1.3% 1.009142; ]& O( X7 g1 j' Z
o y2 @' U2 |" V
1.4% 1.008435" y( [4 A3 a( r. U! H& g
) q# C4 G8 W$ s1 s' Y4 d1.5% 1.007528
3 r- p. }/ C: {) U
' f3 A) I" y6 r, @) ~1.6% 1.00642
3 c( s3 ^. D6 |) h6 k9 {3 ?: ?* C* @3 e+ P- X' t2 H
1.7% 1.005112
9 {' ^% Y3 g6 _, r% m* N. A+ E. {6 }& p% N' g0 m0 X
1.8% 1.003605& m- M- I, F# S* u. b- O8 Q
2 D# e0 L: y- N1 t) m5 M* v
1.9% 1.0019
( ?% `% t: T" K) `* a* I
$ s* o% ?( n/ X$ X9 e$ [. I& V2.0% 0.999997/ [4 t8 O. Q" T' H, q. U
! S0 d+ m: x' U* q* }2 L# r
2.1% 0.997899- o v/ O8 ^& m2 k
) y: s+ g. t! T
2.2% 0.995605
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# P8 J# u# S) l/ g+ T( h2.3% 0.9931186 a, R7 q" g$ Z' U9 T
/ ] T4 w- |- K2.4% 0.990439
% T4 k0 |; y. W
$ _2 C$ Z1 T ?3 i4 P2.5% 0.9875699 y* m& J# I# l" v/ H
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2.6% 0.984513 u( N. b: t5 E2 ~% ~
1 x$ a. Z/ }( ?/ h- z/ L9 e2 x% @
2.7% 0.981264
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3 f2 F ^0 T1 C& P5 C6 N2.8% 0.977833
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2.9% 0.974219" ^/ P9 ~% j( k2 Z# W/ d; q
' ^. ~; R' D# c+ G, D: I0 o3.0% 0.970424. \) Y5 N) X7 r
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从上表可以得到一些结论:
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( b/ s2 _. n' k+ p7 _1. 面对赢101次输99次EV+1%的游戏来说,下注在0%以上2%以下,才会有获利
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2. 面对赢101次输99次EV+1%的游戏来说,注码在1%的时候,得到的获利是最高的,下的越小赚的越少,下的越大也赚的越少!& V$ [2 M7 y* s# _, G! S: n) e
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3. 每一次下注之后都要精准的计算剩下的资金,严格按照比例下注,过多过少只要不够准确,都会降低收益,名副其实的刀尖上的舞蹈
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# c ~/ @9 b7 F: Z3 ~凯利这个人,其实只是按照这个原理去推演,发现EV+1%的时候要下本金的1%、EV+2%的时候要下本金的2%...2 n: G3 p5 J* \. E& q" y
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然而凯利所计算的只是一赔一的条件,其实根据不同赌戏的赔率不同,其实不尽然都是跟EV相同的,但是如果各位自己制作一个简单的excel表,那么自己也可以拉的出来最适合的注码比例。9 g/ k+ H- S7 N: }6 G. }
0 d" q$ \6 O6 C1 |7 d2 B以上,希望我能对不懂下注策略的初学优势的博友玩家有所帮助。6 _" @9 V& G3 e
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