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[打法交流]
百家乐高手玩家的内功心法:凯利注码法(凯利缆)(转载)
[复制链接]
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有许多会算优势的博友问我,如何控制震荡?要准备多少资金?要下多大的注?要多久能回报?4 ?1 Z; c. U8 ^! Z1 x3 p8 D( R
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会问我这些问题,表示功力不到家!只会算EV确不会管理资金,只知其然却不知其所以然。0 I, q; X: B+ ^1 [4 ]
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其实优势玩家的资金管理,不是经济学、不是统计学、更不是管理学、而是数学!!!
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5 e: }5 z1 f1 N! R4 U& `" a首先,我问一个很简单的问题,有什么注码法,能让你就算一直输,也永远不会破产?
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请思考1分钟,再来看下面的答案。
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3 X/ F- T2 a& z答案就是用比例下注,就永远不会破产!
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例如:我每次都下我总资金的10%,如果输了,我就下剩下的90%的10%,那么不管我输多少次,我始终都留下我上次下注之前的90%,永远都还会剩下钱。' W5 |# C/ P+ z5 r
" A' t/ S3 A, W& Y现在的问题就是,到底要下总资本的百分之几最好?
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) k- ]& c8 H1 O* K我们先来看一个0和的游戏。
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+ E4 S2 |! \; L) u9 K玩2手,输一次赢一次,我用10%下注,不管先输(剩下90%,再下10%也就是90%*10%=9%)再赢(90%+9%),还是先赢(剩下110%,再下110%的10%=11%)再输(110%-11%),都是剩下99%,公式是(1+10%)*(1-10%)=99% 损失了1%的本金!$ O: p8 u |3 ?: ?9 X( S/ C" Y
; C4 N" M% d$ N- a0 s0 s3 f; Z4 I9 }玩200手,输100次赢100次,用10%下注,(1+10%)^100 * (1-10%)^100=36.6% 损失了65.4%的本金!玩越多手,输的越多。
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; {2 j; o$ z" X( N这个实验说明,使用永远不会破产的注码,虽然永远也输不完,但是就算玩一个不输不赢的游戏,也会一直越输越多。
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接下来,大家都知道我们玩一个+EV的游戏,赢的会比输的多,+1%的游戏,就是200手里面赢101手输99手的意思,那么如果用我们永远不会破产的注码来打,会不会赚钱呢?
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3 X& k* z% j& V, \! @# H- |玩200手,输99次赢101次,用10%下注,(1+10%)^101 * (1-10%)^99=44.7373% 比0和的好点,但是依然不会赢。* m9 H$ ]% {" h* j* ?7 S
. R* l" V; j2 I% u再来看看如果下5%,(1+5%)^101 * (1-5%)^99=86.051% 比下10%好多了。; |! w" N8 i) L5 G6 s! S7 p
" c; g+ O4 O5 _* s2 i如果下1%呢?(1+1%)^101 * (1-1%)^99=101.005% 终于发现能永远不会破产又赚钱的地方了。
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但是这真的是最好的吗?我帮大家节省时间,我直接把下注的比例跟获利结果,用表格的形式拉出来。, A4 ?: v" X- z% n& g6 L- z
+ l9 H) c3 P8 S" m下注比例 本金结果
0 d6 y8 w6 P; y( \# I; Y. [3 T. m* H% V6 f* m
0.1% 1.001902) `1 K2 D0 n/ k7 c/ Y$ L
% k9 I, f2 I. n( \% g0.2% 1.0036065 Y+ Q4 Z( X8 a7 f* {3 A r7 ]2 T; p' o! H
5 n; t6 m( ~. B7 X3 k6 N* S" Q0.3% 1.005113
0 u; o. _# y7 g
: P% k: C; k0 x B2 e0.4% 1.0064210 n5 ~1 R3 \! m
5 Q2 M# X* F% u9 a5 f( g
0.5% 1.007528
* c' ~ A* r& b3 F) a3 Y6 L: q c1 {
0.6% 1.008435
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5 M, u+ u" T( h* T5 [/ O0.7% 1.009142
( o/ b' X+ Z* v, \
( d; i( [1 |$ C# w; L0.8% 1.0096462 Q* ?9 \3 l7 y
, u+ q/ `" U' X# j
0.9% 1.009949
o2 `/ C9 K" e
9 K7 Z1 N/ w: c. C6 O1 J1.0% 1.01005
* g" u2 N. D' Q4 ?1 ^" F4 ]8 @$ K+ i& @4 \- B L5 Q
1.1% 1.009949
" R" s6 U- M0 |! a
, g7 o3 {; z9 C1.2% 1.009646
) g$ r' b! Y+ `) E; h
6 ? v4 \4 u; L6 u( y$ P3 @1.3% 1.009142, e, h8 e! n4 z$ g3 I
% e7 f6 V! ~8 ~7 \. s" o1.4% 1.0084355 \. o' J, c/ O& z5 b* `
0 J& J4 Y( G: i/ v* X, @1.5% 1.0075288 i/ @, f2 M- o Y! Z0 X" v- |& M! ~8 s
$ p3 I, r' q/ D& m6 N7 k6 r1.6% 1.00642
0 R9 o4 g! I, S- ^9 A0 o. ?# e- I3 k1 _) r1 n$ F9 k
1.7% 1.005112
# T. t% I* L5 ]8 H
. _! w' l% S) W1 d& Q: [1.8% 1.0036059 [: |6 J( g1 d7 V7 |, ^
# s- U. r; w: S6 w2 M' J5 }1.9% 1.0019
0 ]5 i! ^8 u( C7 S7 S# [& M% S9 m! T. e
2.0% 0.999997
4 C9 z2 }5 H8 B8 y- V; y' Y3 |* ~" p C) y
2.1% 0.997899
) V% z, [& T) s" m% h2 x/ Q+ d) o! S/ l+ @
2.2% 0.995605
% H) O8 b$ F* N$ o
; ]" b# P' @. E' d U2.3% 0.993118; q; Z7 u! _) m7 M3 ?2 m n/ Y7 }
9 S8 d' T/ F& ^& R l9 O
2.4% 0.990439: n- c2 u* y; J" y. t# N5 Z
) Q |$ n. }/ X" i2.5% 0.987569
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2.6% 0.98451
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8 M8 K- I8 H. U. e4 i! C+ B0 @2.7% 0.9812642 G( b8 j' E" A' @1 j1 G
! ~( f x* u0 |+ t0 B9 R2.8% 0.977833& o$ x8 \/ I' `1 `
" a4 C! s' u' |) e! `
2.9% 0.974219" \2 o2 R; j3 }, d" N0 f+ g
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3.0% 0.970424
* {# J7 P2 j2 }: {# P; `: \8 |
% Z# A0 u( y9 J从上表可以得到一些结论:. T, `6 H# L3 l7 S5 R
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1. 面对赢101次输99次EV+1%的游戏来说,下注在0%以上2%以下,才会有获利
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; ]% F1 E; {* s# F9 c2 b2. 面对赢101次输99次EV+1%的游戏来说,注码在1%的时候,得到的获利是最高的,下的越小赚的越少,下的越大也赚的越少!: [, t- v0 `1 \: i: f
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3. 每一次下注之后都要精准的计算剩下的资金,严格按照比例下注,过多过少只要不够准确,都会降低收益,名副其实的刀尖上的舞蹈. ^7 q6 D @0 [( D: `0 h
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凯利这个人,其实只是按照这个原理去推演,发现EV+1%的时候要下本金的1%、EV+2%的时候要下本金的2%...
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然而凯利所计算的只是一赔一的条件,其实根据不同赌戏的赔率不同,其实不尽然都是跟EV相同的,但是如果各位自己制作一个简单的excel表,那么自己也可以拉的出来最适合的注码比例。
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K! H' d2 f4 }+ [, C0 x以上,希望我能对不懂下注策略的初学优势的博友玩家有所帮助。
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