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[打法交流]
百家乐高手玩家的内功心法:凯利注码法(凯利缆)(转载)
[复制链接]
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有许多会算优势的博友问我,如何控制震荡?要准备多少资金?要下多大的注?要多久能回报?7 t5 M1 S8 e F8 G: F
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会问我这些问题,表示功力不到家!只会算EV确不会管理资金,只知其然却不知其所以然。
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; k, j& V9 ?( g T$ ?& f8 H其实优势玩家的资金管理,不是经济学、不是统计学、更不是管理学、而是数学!!! R, x$ w; b# I6 j& M( l+ J; @
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首先,我问一个很简单的问题,有什么注码法,能让你就算一直输,也永远不会破产?8 _% f9 a# o/ d6 A$ F, d
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请思考1分钟,再来看下面的答案。9 n1 p# |) e8 O/ u5 U' ?
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答案就是用比例下注,就永远不会破产!2 z m+ b, W9 W, P6 [ }
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例如:我每次都下我总资金的10%,如果输了,我就下剩下的90%的10%,那么不管我输多少次,我始终都留下我上次下注之前的90%,永远都还会剩下钱。6 g g! m* K" |3 H! i* S
8 y9 W& B- V: o+ N现在的问题就是,到底要下总资本的百分之几最好?
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我们先来看一个0和的游戏。9 k' `& G5 @- P: ?
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玩2手,输一次赢一次,我用10%下注,不管先输(剩下90%,再下10%也就是90%*10%=9%)再赢(90%+9%),还是先赢(剩下110%,再下110%的10%=11%)再输(110%-11%),都是剩下99%,公式是(1+10%)*(1-10%)=99% 损失了1%的本金!
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玩200手,输100次赢100次,用10%下注,(1+10%)^100 * (1-10%)^100=36.6% 损失了65.4%的本金!玩越多手,输的越多。( u4 E/ t7 l1 X
+ q4 A. y/ t4 ~9 G1 j& \这个实验说明,使用永远不会破产的注码,虽然永远也输不完,但是就算玩一个不输不赢的游戏,也会一直越输越多。
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接下来,大家都知道我们玩一个+EV的游戏,赢的会比输的多,+1%的游戏,就是200手里面赢101手输99手的意思,那么如果用我们永远不会破产的注码来打,会不会赚钱呢?3 ]) A: u! ^" @8 L
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玩200手,输99次赢101次,用10%下注,(1+10%)^101 * (1-10%)^99=44.7373% 比0和的好点,但是依然不会赢。
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) g% \2 j( i% Q再来看看如果下5%,(1+5%)^101 * (1-5%)^99=86.051% 比下10%好多了。
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% V# \ w1 Y$ }0 I如果下1%呢?(1+1%)^101 * (1-1%)^99=101.005% 终于发现能永远不会破产又赚钱的地方了。4 u) r- v% M$ ~$ r) r
4 q% @6 B4 H# g4 ^* o( k但是这真的是最好的吗?我帮大家节省时间,我直接把下注的比例跟获利结果,用表格的形式拉出来。
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下注比例 本金结果6 @' S. i7 J* u" R
3 o) u, k- ^' k; Y% [( G% k4 P0.1% 1.001902
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; @% }0 ~% { h6 r3 y0 Z7 z0.2% 1.003606- N' Y; P; M! p- V% t1 g i
f" N' b1 K. [( d' U1 T
0.3% 1.005113
! `8 k. u6 J8 z2 P0 E
2 ~0 D$ k& b' { h0.4% 1.006421
$ m8 O% G, h- ~1 n' L, l8 { z! t1 I4 H4 S: v3 B. q
0.5% 1.0075282 g* b- a8 N) z j
. J! d- ~ F* r2 U0 o( J0.6% 1.008435; P( A* f8 C$ {; k5 }
% `" @/ w% z5 v$ R6 `; R$ K; |2 m3 F! u; o
0.7% 1.009142
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0.8% 1.0096467 w2 u$ u N: E6 r2 t1 I
' H9 Q, M% m# q' `' b
0.9% 1.009949
/ J7 F6 m |, V8 e
0 }! `2 l2 e) L, p) s/ a1.0% 1.01005- J( O0 ]) a! V2 \3 c! _
. R, a7 w& Y$ E8 E) e+ R1.1% 1.009949
* U+ D* j. |4 Q$ T% i2 o
}' s5 E5 `, y8 z; f( d1.2% 1.009646/ ^7 y/ H$ Q" e; r+ ^7 t
( s2 ]4 K; a6 q
1.3% 1.009142" E5 W, E: n" ~8 c) `
, ~1 K1 |- \+ U( Z! J; a
1.4% 1.008435
0 m4 ] W! e7 ~# ~+ r* Y% R1 `5 d. H* S9 n9 a
1.5% 1.0075288 R' j4 R f" Q: M
' V r/ L% V9 `2 r ?
1.6% 1.00642
: o6 ], ?( _1 |1 {* N2 v1 w/ _9 K0 z: z
1.7% 1.005112/ X1 Z& k- a6 @( F. @% s! G
9 T. v4 G% R. F; y0 k9 E7 x* M! y6 B
1.8% 1.003605
# \, I6 |7 _# t$ W2 z( s; |( z% {1 C2 N# Z3 j, e
1.9% 1.00191 A! y$ p. [9 N: C9 f, O; k
' Y4 ? C3 w/ e, K% D: P
2.0% 0.999997+ K1 P5 k" k& g7 Z
+ X1 r' Z! [+ U$ {8 }8 X6 x2.1% 0.997899$ P; m. f/ r' |+ |0 O8 a$ A
- b* O9 ?1 V2 n+ g6 ^* S2.2% 0.995605
' x8 O, ?3 R N& ?6 i. _+ h2 B* F( c1 P. V. }4 N" j' `! g
2.3% 0.993118" ?- D" i! |+ G; d
0 _9 r4 D0 c; j/ P9 @
2.4% 0.990439
" S; N5 i S+ A, Q$ ^1 e s4 u8 F) Q5 k- N& N+ i: D4 r1 f
2.5% 0.987569
@6 v8 a% F1 k) b
; i' ]9 x; f. x9 b6 d% O' z/ o2.6% 0.98451
`) @0 @, q) o; _2 o5 {/ A$ K" |0 M4 M5 \2 h' b0 _' G! ~
2.7% 0.981264% ?2 k0 v1 z% J5 O0 v% G& T' X
! x- F( M! k) ^
2.8% 0.9778332 Q L p2 Y% j" ?4 H
. y. o, n; @ L& f2.9% 0.974219
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3.0% 0.970424
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0 A' b4 \) k: V( E& j; V/ a s! G从上表可以得到一些结论:* d5 q/ M$ ?8 b7 q
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1. 面对赢101次输99次EV+1%的游戏来说,下注在0%以上2%以下,才会有获利! a" t3 ~3 b0 w! U
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2. 面对赢101次输99次EV+1%的游戏来说,注码在1%的时候,得到的获利是最高的,下的越小赚的越少,下的越大也赚的越少!
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7 u6 I; m9 B& [+ N. H6 ?" l3. 每一次下注之后都要精准的计算剩下的资金,严格按照比例下注,过多过少只要不够准确,都会降低收益,名副其实的刀尖上的舞蹈9 m; }1 O# G/ Q$ a5 D) \: Y: Z
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凯利这个人,其实只是按照这个原理去推演,发现EV+1%的时候要下本金的1%、EV+2%的时候要下本金的2%...& `- f6 |0 I8 c' ]+ k
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然而凯利所计算的只是一赔一的条件,其实根据不同赌戏的赔率不同,其实不尽然都是跟EV相同的,但是如果各位自己制作一个简单的excel表,那么自己也可以拉的出来最适合的注码比例。
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以上,希望我能对不懂下注策略的初学优势的博友玩家有所帮助。+ u+ j+ u5 S; B h& e& N
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