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[打法交流]
百家乐高手玩家的内功心法:凯利注码法(凯利缆)(转载)
[复制链接]
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有许多会算优势的博友问我,如何控制震荡?要准备多少资金?要下多大的注?要多久能回报?8 }4 G) e! @- Y" j
0 e/ C+ m9 Y+ }会问我这些问题,表示功力不到家!只会算EV确不会管理资金,只知其然却不知其所以然。, H1 o& f) u+ h* S3 X G& S) J
5 q: L. w6 w3 L; y其实优势玩家的资金管理,不是经济学、不是统计学、更不是管理学、而是数学!!!
" o! H Z: |( h5 Q
* f N: T6 y# r首先,我问一个很简单的问题,有什么注码法,能让你就算一直输,也永远不会破产?
: u8 N; f/ O& ~% ]* g
A. C* p; G" c, C3 K; N请思考1分钟,再来看下面的答案。6 q) O4 ~/ M' W# x
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答案就是用比例下注,就永远不会破产!. H( p5 N& @+ k; ` i
+ {, n4 c! H5 s/ O6 N4 W) d; o例如:我每次都下我总资金的10%,如果输了,我就下剩下的90%的10%,那么不管我输多少次,我始终都留下我上次下注之前的90%,永远都还会剩下钱。; O5 f8 f w- \/ A+ N* @
+ p: n4 s! w# E+ O现在的问题就是,到底要下总资本的百分之几最好?* ?6 A' r9 p1 O' A2 s3 `0 e5 g
$ W H: E. D h7 a H/ \/ d
我们先来看一个0和的游戏。4 g: I" \( g3 n' F" Y' q* x; h
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玩2手,输一次赢一次,我用10%下注,不管先输(剩下90%,再下10%也就是90%*10%=9%)再赢(90%+9%),还是先赢(剩下110%,再下110%的10%=11%)再输(110%-11%),都是剩下99%,公式是(1+10%)*(1-10%)=99% 损失了1%的本金!% E- N" O! X5 Q8 h1 ^9 F7 w
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玩200手,输100次赢100次,用10%下注,(1+10%)^100 * (1-10%)^100=36.6% 损失了65.4%的本金!玩越多手,输的越多。, d2 D/ B" Q- H* X( W2 n8 m5 J
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这个实验说明,使用永远不会破产的注码,虽然永远也输不完,但是就算玩一个不输不赢的游戏,也会一直越输越多。( i3 `; Z5 J7 a% C" M9 c
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接下来,大家都知道我们玩一个+EV的游戏,赢的会比输的多,+1%的游戏,就是200手里面赢101手输99手的意思,那么如果用我们永远不会破产的注码来打,会不会赚钱呢?
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$ L' D- i6 n6 X玩200手,输99次赢101次,用10%下注,(1+10%)^101 * (1-10%)^99=44.7373% 比0和的好点,但是依然不会赢。
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再来看看如果下5%,(1+5%)^101 * (1-5%)^99=86.051% 比下10%好多了。" x- o# }% c. [7 z' a
- E( I# J# X# k0 S( T# B4 }6 z如果下1%呢?(1+1%)^101 * (1-1%)^99=101.005% 终于发现能永远不会破产又赚钱的地方了。
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5 @. {. n! J0 Y5 ~5 v* }& P但是这真的是最好的吗?我帮大家节省时间,我直接把下注的比例跟获利结果,用表格的形式拉出来。" x6 q/ T6 {- u. T4 p8 p" A8 O- ]8 m
4 ^, @6 M* E- J D- c下注比例 本金结果
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0.1% 1.001902
9 t! G5 s( Z+ r
+ |; h3 V, d }- \0.2% 1.003606
" s" D- ^8 i6 ?' e/ `( c( G2 a( \) j1 P% T" i( P( U4 x' e
0.3% 1.005113% I( R. O6 y4 ~ h& }# Y& \" C+ C
8 k( O$ n0 n$ @& B/ o0.4% 1.006421
8 y3 }. f: @, C, o; l% H. c6 }
. m8 p2 |1 A S3 b5 b0.5% 1.0075287 }3 P' `( \4 V3 F+ v+ |
2 y7 B" ]3 `! ]( Y; _, x6 d
0.6% 1.008435
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M( ^1 y& |0 Q: ~# M+ B4 x5 S5 U0.7% 1.009142
7 A' p) J' ]+ a9 M2 e1 u) g/ H+ [" V" U& ?
0.8% 1.009646
9 \1 L+ P: L0 x- K3 y8 J
6 O+ k) Y7 w) s: K1 c7 p1 p0.9% 1.009949
# E* F* B. I1 B" ^+ e. T2 ]
7 J& J" x3 n8 D1 d9 X2 g1.0% 1.01005# H7 d2 V% U; N K8 X
; c3 \+ [4 z3 N) ~
1.1% 1.0099498 _5 e( s# x( j
3 x/ g* B6 d$ ?1 }. [% T5 p8 g1.2% 1.0096463 ^; H, i( Z- @+ K/ E, |/ E
6 S7 F9 G( m3 d, I3 [1.3% 1.009142" n- e8 U$ B, S8 q( W
( x: _9 R2 i6 E7 |/ t) O. g
1.4% 1.008435
: }; s' y Z0 G+ g2 L. P% z# V9 \) M0 s
1.5% 1.007528! u+ N/ w, G& T) Y, P: u5 `
+ _! A' I7 b) y$ ]1.6% 1.00642
% |0 A' \, t: \" q, E& H5 w$ v$ R0 ]( q3 `6 }6 ^- Z2 |
1.7% 1.005112
5 j1 {& H/ X, R. h" F e: s- i% A6 C! O* ^; M; v W
1.8% 1.003605 h8 p# o4 M4 f' ?. l
8 k4 [0 X3 i$ t* p- H, M* o7 e1.9% 1.0019/ F) X' t G; o9 N: d
: _; j# O) N3 B6 A% e* F
2.0% 0.9999976 @' Q8 ^5 k; ~
( c+ d; ]2 @. _: g& r. h& A. D2.1% 0.997899
# [' ~4 }* Q; Q4 N' h- n
2 S' e& D" ^" N. {3 P" f2.2% 0.995605
' z4 q; s; Y- a/ ?* i* c0 P6 I: j0 H" ^; U
2.3% 0.993118+ W$ k. q, x6 K1 }
/ p2 K/ ~6 Q& f5 H2.4% 0.990439
) V9 f" h& q( }
1 k1 k$ r0 C# y% M( ]6 ~2.5% 0.987569
0 \. V @" `! o4 g7 J7 ^' W8 s6 ?' [8 n- u
2.6% 0.98451- C7 Y" u8 B0 f. I, V
! v0 _9 q# [5 }) k* _
2.7% 0.981264
7 e# m8 W: [& m, s7 M9 q4 r1 a& E2 j. e5 a
2.8% 0.977833! y0 K$ W, D* v% Y
4 j. P, ^3 F5 p$ b) Y2.9% 0.9742195 V4 e. C& ?: Z$ p3 e6 D; D4 @
n6 E. _3 W" Q7 m- _! C3.0% 0.970424
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从上表可以得到一些结论:, w8 k* M" w x
: F4 u" B0 B, n3 s6 Z1. 面对赢101次输99次EV+1%的游戏来说,下注在0%以上2%以下,才会有获利( x4 n! v9 I: c5 G. x4 ~9 T
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2. 面对赢101次输99次EV+1%的游戏来说,注码在1%的时候,得到的获利是最高的,下的越小赚的越少,下的越大也赚的越少!0 J0 ~+ f2 t# {7 I) n
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3. 每一次下注之后都要精准的计算剩下的资金,严格按照比例下注,过多过少只要不够准确,都会降低收益,名副其实的刀尖上的舞蹈5 ^* `- {2 @6 o8 W
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凯利这个人,其实只是按照这个原理去推演,发现EV+1%的时候要下本金的1%、EV+2%的时候要下本金的2%...( }1 g6 ~. L) z0 R# m
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然而凯利所计算的只是一赔一的条件,其实根据不同赌戏的赔率不同,其实不尽然都是跟EV相同的,但是如果各位自己制作一个简单的excel表,那么自己也可以拉的出来最适合的注码比例。1 n( z( J r9 r3 U8 p5 y* V
& C+ e& j$ g \# @4 v/ i; o o3 n以上,希望我能对不懂下注策略的初学优势的博友玩家有所帮助。8 `' Z) e( l/ o4 o" m4 C
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