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[打法交流]
百家乐高手玩家的内功心法:凯利注码法(凯利缆)(转载)
[复制链接]
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有许多会算优势的博友问我,如何控制震荡?要准备多少资金?要下多大的注?要多久能回报?8 C' {5 @3 i- z( K- A
' H7 u4 g: P2 ?5 @. I
会问我这些问题,表示功力不到家!只会算EV确不会管理资金,只知其然却不知其所以然。
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0 V6 z) _ c/ u4 q" o0 P6 H其实优势玩家的资金管理,不是经济学、不是统计学、更不是管理学、而是数学!!!8 E* V2 w! P% o, s* t) f5 P
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首先,我问一个很简单的问题,有什么注码法,能让你就算一直输,也永远不会破产?
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请思考1分钟,再来看下面的答案。* d1 W% N- f3 ~) K8 V& j/ ^
/ u0 |# |3 I9 {9 |3 G* ]答案就是用比例下注,就永远不会破产!
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) d* l" Z" z* d# O+ o例如:我每次都下我总资金的10%,如果输了,我就下剩下的90%的10%,那么不管我输多少次,我始终都留下我上次下注之前的90%,永远都还会剩下钱。* ^6 Q; L0 `: N, H% V1 M
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现在的问题就是,到底要下总资本的百分之几最好?3 W2 V7 S$ D3 E, s W" E4 l/ ]
3 n" Z2 ^7 p2 V% _6 m我们先来看一个0和的游戏。% r; C; s6 Q9 `$ B: Z, Y5 U$ X
* X2 p. w9 d2 ^" _8 r" m5 G玩2手,输一次赢一次,我用10%下注,不管先输(剩下90%,再下10%也就是90%*10%=9%)再赢(90%+9%),还是先赢(剩下110%,再下110%的10%=11%)再输(110%-11%),都是剩下99%,公式是(1+10%)*(1-10%)=99% 损失了1%的本金!
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" B- ]5 w& v/ X3 s& t8 p玩200手,输100次赢100次,用10%下注,(1+10%)^100 * (1-10%)^100=36.6% 损失了65.4%的本金!玩越多手,输的越多。
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& C) l/ J" x* ?! v' P这个实验说明,使用永远不会破产的注码,虽然永远也输不完,但是就算玩一个不输不赢的游戏,也会一直越输越多。6 y5 N+ p7 D# {
# n# i- m! q/ `" q接下来,大家都知道我们玩一个+EV的游戏,赢的会比输的多,+1%的游戏,就是200手里面赢101手输99手的意思,那么如果用我们永远不会破产的注码来打,会不会赚钱呢?
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! s& }7 G1 |2 f8 K# i& R Y7 n玩200手,输99次赢101次,用10%下注,(1+10%)^101 * (1-10%)^99=44.7373% 比0和的好点,但是依然不会赢。% k; Z9 d |- h. b3 J- d
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再来看看如果下5%,(1+5%)^101 * (1-5%)^99=86.051% 比下10%好多了。& X- H y- G5 c; J1 r# v
$ v" B# |' V# E( Q/ J- p如果下1%呢?(1+1%)^101 * (1-1%)^99=101.005% 终于发现能永远不会破产又赚钱的地方了。7 ~; A6 n) I7 R1 W% V
4 c; k) {# O, z* w* D5 p9 C但是这真的是最好的吗?我帮大家节省时间,我直接把下注的比例跟获利结果,用表格的形式拉出来。+ T% _9 @5 ~; T. s9 U$ }; M1 j' O
4 X d7 v, a6 E( E2 S+ y下注比例 本金结果
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0.1% 1.001902
: ?! {4 R. d" I8 e' F; R* A$ y o4 b2 X: d. S0 P+ J; E4 A7 ?
0.2% 1.003606
! k. k; l' q" n" R, j9 B& ~5 x- h% \% e: E4 t n
0.3% 1.005113
2 [& L; f7 M& L) ^. w R
- Q: N3 p4 E* w4 o9 M. l0.4% 1.006421
9 E" Z7 s% V/ B1 Q
1 G1 k( S4 C( X$ n' K0.5% 1.007528
1 }' E K: h& C/ R* ]
$ b, n. g0 M0 O, I2 @2 }. ?; }6 f0.6% 1.008435
6 B1 F6 r. k3 s
6 V% C7 n, ?! Z/ v8 r2 q% q& T! [0.7% 1.009142
+ l$ N7 X5 e4 w9 s! V' D- T w4 h( T
0.8% 1.009646
/ j I6 J0 q0 K0 `3 _1 b) B. V) o4 E8 N2 z# ^4 E; } b! ]
0.9% 1.009949
( l: E: P: L- j% P1 F) B# l8 l6 C
3 U- @' r! A; l/ r* I1.0% 1.010052 O/ \% Y. Z1 a$ |3 Y) `; e+ ]
% B% f" N$ _7 V+ x
1.1% 1.009949- f& L7 B/ @4 t0 A- V! v2 N w v
4 D/ d2 u* g# } l& ~$ m( T. j; W/ ]1.2% 1.0096467 s0 z, v, e% ]9 z
# z' E5 T1 f6 ~
1.3% 1.009142+ N0 C. }5 L8 f' c1 J
# C( q' I1 u" j; d M1.4% 1.008435
% n) I4 q% \: e R/ E( \
6 e& ^# }- X9 ]' f5 F. \1.5% 1.007528% w. c0 I% k5 k8 }. T5 `2 Q
# i4 T( |3 W8 y) T1 v, \: z
1.6% 1.00642 J3 G' ]/ P. @, B8 \
/ Z; |! B5 ? ?5 F
1.7% 1.005112
1 J: L+ j, y% C' s/ h$ s4 @0 d% B
1.8% 1.003605: x5 A) R) f1 l/ q
& ^; P& ?+ G" J2 e' v. r+ R" s1 Z1.9% 1.0019' W4 @# g1 @3 C5 U* T
4 A( A5 Q K$ P( D6 [* n/ x9 J1 H2.0% 0.999997
) T0 v$ Q, G0 Y
4 O5 P; Z8 O6 i! E2.1% 0.997899
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2.2% 0.995605) v3 c# z" y$ h6 h$ W
6 h) M) B& I# x% q; ~' Q% c2.3% 0.9931187 k5 `, @- K# f
0 m+ `& Y( y. s# V1 M! M% \; F
2.4% 0.9904394 _0 F0 {: v7 _( Y( K, G7 K& C
; b; O" z+ c Z E- r* ]5 M2.5% 0.987569, a9 p. s" x" X/ D
0 \* c5 V- V" O5 G" v8 `4 H8 C
2.6% 0.98451
( d, w ]9 z8 i& u
* k2 `) _+ M3 O$ Y+ Q& i2.7% 0.981264' ~/ ~, S# ~# N% `) A
{3 X a6 ]' ], v2.8% 0.977833
2 z/ P1 ~8 z2 ^' j: X* [
1 C8 F0 q6 [$ b" A: z8 U( N' P2.9% 0.974219* g& F4 U# ]& e$ q
1 o0 |2 G; W0 X; d& d' y
3.0% 0.970424- c% I0 E+ O, x/ X6 K2 A
4 G9 n3 M2 E- {7 R' a
从上表可以得到一些结论:
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1. 面对赢101次输99次EV+1%的游戏来说,下注在0%以上2%以下,才会有获利 ?0 H5 W4 ?; {( _9 \+ W# D( F
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2. 面对赢101次输99次EV+1%的游戏来说,注码在1%的时候,得到的获利是最高的,下的越小赚的越少,下的越大也赚的越少!4 S! n4 v/ c; K( J! B* U
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3. 每一次下注之后都要精准的计算剩下的资金,严格按照比例下注,过多过少只要不够准确,都会降低收益,名副其实的刀尖上的舞蹈
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凯利这个人,其实只是按照这个原理去推演,发现EV+1%的时候要下本金的1%、EV+2%的时候要下本金的2%...% S* J- u4 W, N8 R5 Z! r, v
; q0 c, }) Z# E0 w5 T- U& t5 q然而凯利所计算的只是一赔一的条件,其实根据不同赌戏的赔率不同,其实不尽然都是跟EV相同的,但是如果各位自己制作一个简单的excel表,那么自己也可以拉的出来最适合的注码比例。
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以上,希望我能对不懂下注策略的初学优势的博友玩家有所帮助。- Y9 C0 i* [5 t1 v% M
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