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一、我们先假设一个抽样数W={W(ij)|i,j∈N}, W(ij)就是比赛的进球结果,i,j分别表示主客队的进球数。
( z% f8 |, k' F, A6 a# S: I1 U那么,平局、主胜、客胜就有以下表达式:
/ | L- c/ ~6 b" g* O; ?/ fA(d) = {W(ij)|i=j, i∈N, j∈N}
6 S( f' A- `; hA(h) = {W(ij)|i>j, i∈N, j∈N}. r. E$ e5 P* j y+ G, I
A(a) = {W(ij)|i 接着我们引入一个符号P(i)表示平胜负的概率,P(Ai)∈[0,1]:
2 B0 D% B# o$ V- [P(i)=P(Ai), i∈{0, 1, 2}
( }: y. \$ @- A E二、首先来说说平手盘(即0:0Handicaps或我们经常在国外上看到的(Moneyline)
* c8 A' [' _( y }/ c假设b(h)表示主队的投注总数,b(a)表示客队的投注总数,那么投注主客队的回报总数额为:% F7 ^, Y1 i g) S+ k# S- q; `& q
{b(h) , 即上面所述的A(d)结果发生# S3 G2 o# ^7 X: [- B, y. y
R(1)={O(h)*b(h),即上面所述的A(h)结果发生( D0 V. f6 ^* |0 W Z {$ U9 Y [
{0 , 即上面所述的A(a)结果发生
" K, L, \! N; G! o以及0 y8 N/ T( {+ m3 M1 L( O! a3 M6 S
{b(a) , 即上面所述的A(d)结果发生# _2 A3 e( h Y5 ~+ x: r* {
R(2)={0, 即上面所述的A(h)结果发生
( A9 V% P3 F; J& W+ b( n& \) A1 c% W{O(a)*b(a),即上面所述的A(a)结果发生4 \: b- E* c4 y$ l" m
如果O(h)表示平手盘下的主队赔率,O(a)表示平手盘下的客队赔率1 g0 [$ c, m* b1 S }/ x! \* H; b$ V
那么投注主客的期望回报总数分别为
) i K/ E: y( R, r" \: S; o9 ~9 uE[R(1)]=P(d)*b(h)+P(h)*O(h)*b(h)=b(h)*[P(d)+p(h)O(h)]3 k" v# W1 M5 L8 ~8 Y1 u
E[R(2)]=P(d)*b(a)+P(a)*O(a)*b(a)=b(a)*[P(d)+p(a)O(a)]
& Y' [+ T& v' B按照真实赔率(暂不包含庄家优势),我们可以认为实际投注回报与期望投注回报相等7 X+ j3 L; N$ m+ _
E[R(1)]=b(h)*[P(d)+p(h)O(h)]=b(h)
4 m' T8 e. ]( t" O! dP(d)+p(h)O(h)=1% d- o- X9 O: l {- F) q
O(h)=(1-P(d))/P(h)-----这里就得出平手盘下计算主队赔率的公式0 n k4 A: C9 h$ k0 P r6 N( L
E[R(2)]=b(a)*[P(d)+p(a)O(a)]=b(a); b6 W) O {1 R; N# y
P(d)+p(a)O(a)=1& R6 k; ]* Z; \( p/ ~& s6 u" ?4 D/ o+ m- L
O(a)=(1-P(d))/P(a)-----这里就得出平手盘下计算客队赔率的公式 r. F8 |( j" H- o
在极端情况下,可以认为平手盘亚洲赔率(或moneyline),就是在不发生平局结果条件下(就是公式中P(d)=0),主胜客胜概率的倒数
) o" V9 Z* m1 v3 D I/ U0 Y9 H- z三、半球盘的计算描述
& u ^, C* Z# c: h接着我们来看看主队(HOME TEAM)受半球(1/2:0 Handicaps的情况)* I: h1 b# {( d! o
还是假设b(h)表示主队的投注总数,b(a)表示客队的投注总数,那么投注主客队的回报总数额为:
$ q' ^- |$ K; J A{O(h)*b(h),即上面所述的A(d)结果发生
) t# n2 {" z: S- B, ?+ IR(1)={O(h)*b(h),即上面所述的A(h)结果发生" z# Q! |, G* o
{0 , 即上面所述的A(a)结果发生
( [. O9 S$ Z# \: ^以及
8 }5 G! d, k5 m/ n' B- `- N7 p3 S) g7 D{0 , 即上面所述的A(d)结果发生
- Q: C! Z% i, R ~R(2)={0, 即上面所述的A(h)结果发生
4 o/ v% G3 j8 ^ Z{O(a)*b(a),即上面所述的A(a)结果发生
) o: a" T' h2 r6 x u) S3 B如果O(h)表示受半球盘下的主队赔率,O(a)表示客队赔率# w( W) l9 {0 {% |& N( S
投注主客的期望回报总数分别为
, @/ I+ J3 ?" S' z( K) b) {1 VE[R(1)]=P(d)*O(h)*b(h)+P(h)*O(h)*b(h)=b(h)*O(h)*[P(d)+p(h)]
: u% Z' Q% k) u0 }9 s" kE[R(2)]=P(a)*O(a)*b(a)% n, P( E. x& ~5 ^& c( r* _- `) Q
假设实际投注回报与期望投注回报相等
l" J6 t1 L* y# ?: U2 ME[R(1)]=b(h)*O(h)*[P(d)+p(h)]=b(h). e& X7 S3 |3 x
O(h)*[P(d)+p(h)]=1, U+ a7 l; K# H
O(h)=1/[P(d)+p(h)]; Y, G' t# `( b( W" g1 X+ |( \5 X5 Q
E[R(2)]=P(a)*O(a)*b(a)=b(a)
1 A' h2 U1 s* l- ~6 o4 vP(a)*O(a)=1
5 a" Q/ X: T- p- [1 K- p* t/ AO(a)=1/P(a)+ D; U, \9 X# P1 F1 L6 R
同样道理可以计算让半球(0:1/2 Handicaps)的亚洲盘赔率
; Q/ G! {9 s, A2 v6 L7 ZO(h)=1/p(h)
& x) e5 a) R; d1 z7 CO(a)=1/[P(d)+p(a)]
. a3 e" h# _: `四、平半球盘的计算描述
5 K: C, y z) F# J% w+ `这个稍复杂一点1 J0 G* p' t' J8 z, J! e- B
接着我们来看看主队(HOME TEAM)受平半球(1/4:0 Handicaps的情况)
$ A B% m. v9 k* s还是假设b(h)表示主队的投注总数,b(a)表示客队的投注总数,那么投注主客队的回报总数额计算:3 d: W3 A0 M% _1 P5 |0 z8 \% x! B" C9 s6 U
{[O(h)+1]/2×b(h), 即上面所述的A(d)结果发生
3 M: \# y9 g# ER(1)={O(h)*b(h), 即上面所述的A(h)结果发生5 J0 R% T V. n: _$ P
{0, 即上面所述的A(a)结果发生$ C6 p* \ \1 b( }2 a9 U* G! V% A
以及
2 H, J a) O8 q7 O% Z1 H{1/2×b(a) , 即上面所述的A(d)结果发生
+ C+ ]/ a: c/ a1 z0 ?' [" }R(2)={0, 即上面所述的A(h)结果发生0 J% K2 r% g5 J
{O(a)*b(a), 即上面所述的A(a)结果发生2 z( Q" p4 q6 i2 J/ u9 B
投注主客的期望回报总数分别为
6 I7 j4 Y& v( AE[R(1)]=P(d)×{[O(h)+1]/2}×b(h)+P(h)×O(h)×b(h)=b(h)*(P(d)×{[O(h)+1]/2}+P(h)×O(h))
/ l3 t( u J4 F& {- RE[R(2)]=1/2×b(a)×P(d)+P(a)*O(a)*b(a)=b(a)*[1/2×P(d)+P(a)*O(a)]
# B- G2 J" @4 P0 _# S/ M和上面计算过程相似,得出:% Y( L4 l5 k5 ?* ]5 t) z/ i
E[R(1)]=b(h)*(P(d)×{[O(h)+1]/2}+P(h)×O(h))=b(h)
' [6 A% R7 @+ gP(d)×{[O(h)+1]/2}+P(h)×O(h)=1
* A5 J7 a9 o* l. `3 |' rO(h)*[1/2*P(d)+P(h)]+1/2*P(d)=13 |& h( M2 `( z
O(h)=[1-1/2*P(d)]/[1/2*P(d)+P(h)]=(1-P(d)/2)/(P(d)/2+P(h))
F( K% c/ B+ d5 X- _; @2 [' Q: mE[R(2)]=b(a)*[1/2×P(d)+P(a)*O(a)]=b(a)% y; I9 U. N6 k
1/2×P(d)+P(a)*O(a)=1
, d, I& Z% F2 Y6 _+ o0 W; UO(a)=[1-1/2×P(d)]/P(a)=(1-P(d)/2)/P(a)* M, k4 @' r3 A' W6 h$ \5 G$ N
同样主队让平半就分别是
# e+ z0 W+ s @' dO(h)=(1-P(d)/2)/P(h)1 q7 l, L w0 @ X S
O(a)=(1-P(d)/2)/(P(d)/2+P(a))) K6 q* u' G6 _
五、一球、两球等整数盘(这里先暂时说主队让1球的情况,0:1,Handicaps,其它可以类推的)
$ x h `2 ~! q$ S0 ^" R$ K; O可以采用类似公式,在(一)中我们分别用A(d)、A(h)、A(a)描述平局、主胜、客胜事件的发生。现在改用另外的符号代替,如B(d)、B(h)、B(a),同时除了平、胜、负概率P(i)(i=d,h,a)外,还需要引入一个一个概率值P(hX)来代表主队赢一球(X=1)、二球(X=2)...的概率,下面来进行演算% s7 E- q/ N2 F# E
B(d) = {W(ij)|i=j+k, i∈N, j∈N,k∈N}
$ a% i- [7 Y4 \) P6 S: x6 qB(h) = {W(ij)|i>j+k, i∈N, j∈N,k∈N}
4 _1 V+ h4 Y+ @4 W9 v" aB(a) = {W(ij)|i i,j分别表示主客队的进球数,k代表让球数& T1 u$ n$ o4 X
接着,假设b(h)表示主队的投注总数,b(a)表示客队的投注总数,那么投注主客队的回报总数额为:
8 L. v/ U) m5 n5 B6 i{b(h)*O(h) , 即上面所述的B(d)结果发生" t5 E" F3 R% d& G' u0 P/ ^+ c
R(1)={b(h)-O(h)*b(h),即上面所述的B(h)结果发生
; l9 d) \7 ^, F{0 , 即上面所述的B(a)结果发生- i0 X8 N, _! I6 E; B0 E+ U7 w
以及) O" J9 c5 I. ^5 b0 C
{b(a) , 即上面所述的B(d)结果发生: j z! ^: D* q6 O! u: J7 [
R(2)={0, 即上面所述的B(h)结果发生) u5 K5 L/ }" B9 K7 r
{O(a)*b(a),即上面所述的B(a)结果发生
( J" z/ L d: D/ a# U# E% v) c投注主客的期望回报总数分别为
; R8 u$ L; y' i7 _E[R(1)]=P(h)*b(h)*O(h)+P(h1)*(b(h)-O(h)*b(h))=b(h)*[P(h)*O(h)+P(h1)-P(h1)*O(h)]! Q$ e! J( I! @4 P
E[R(2)]=P(h1)*b(a)+(1-P(h))*O(a)*b(a)=b(a)*(P(h1)+O(a)-P(h)*O(a))
+ m$ e. T0 J& l% y+ ?假设实际投注回报与期望投注回报相等1 L* |# `. _/ L( O3 [
E[R(1)]=b(h)*[P(h)*O(h)+P(h1)-P(h1)*O(h)]=b(h)
; t# d1 m Q- s( NP(h)*O(h)+P(h1)-P(h1)*O(h)=1
2 b( r" ?% R$ L( D2 }O(h)*(P(h)-P(h1))=1-P(h1)
1 L, b; e) W8 ^/ oO(h)=(1-P(h1))/(P(h)-P(h1))7 k' c9 |" |& Z- t
E[R(2)]=b(a)*(P(h1)+O(a)-P(h)*O(a))=b(a)6 A4 G2 M) n( R, K
P(h1)+O(a)-P(h)*O(a)=1
' m4 ^3 M4 y) t: H, }0 g4 h* RO(a)*(1-P(h))=1-P(h1)
9 G2 r, B8 j6 g# MO(a)=(1-P(h1))/(1-P(h))& n9 q6 o7 ^. O, I; Z7 Y
以上(五)部分是让一球的情况,让两球以上整数盘和反过来受让整数盘是可以同样演算的。2 M! y3 s: A0 M `
简单小结一球或整数盘,其实理论的演算过程不难,但是如何准确计算赢整数球的概率(P(hi)就是其中的难点,这已经涉及到如何用相对动态实力差或球差来计算各种赢球概率(是指赢1、2、3...球的概率,也可以说是赢球比分概率)的问题,使用自己数据模型里的数据来计算。 |
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