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[lastpost] => 2648061 【星宝】5月7日投注流水51321元(单日流水) 1715098900 wuzhaoshichao
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[打法交流]
百家乐高手玩家的内功心法:凯利注码法(凯利缆)(转载)
[复制链接]
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有许多会算优势的博友问我,如何控制震荡?要准备多少资金?要下多大的注?要多久能回报?1 L6 C' G* _" `% {7 `8 l! Z
* v% c( g8 {% Y8 ]; Q会问我这些问题,表示功力不到家!只会算EV确不会管理资金,只知其然却不知其所以然。. _7 Y/ N8 J# i+ I+ B6 l+ [1 i
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其实优势玩家的资金管理,不是经济学、不是统计学、更不是管理学、而是数学!!!2 G ^# u. {2 w! ? q
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首先,我问一个很简单的问题,有什么注码法,能让你就算一直输,也永远不会破产?
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2 z' n$ d L) \& b4 e) [: f请思考1分钟,再来看下面的答案。: f. d! Q9 |' } M
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答案就是用比例下注,就永远不会破产!7 [0 b' g/ @3 i. h8 y. h4 ]
$ S' ^# j9 I* C5 F例如:我每次都下我总资金的10%,如果输了,我就下剩下的90%的10%,那么不管我输多少次,我始终都留下我上次下注之前的90%,永远都还会剩下钱。
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现在的问题就是,到底要下总资本的百分之几最好?2 i( s6 y3 p) }; F$ P5 S, |$ v5 q7 u
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我们先来看一个0和的游戏。
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玩2手,输一次赢一次,我用10%下注,不管先输(剩下90%,再下10%也就是90%*10%=9%)再赢(90%+9%),还是先赢(剩下110%,再下110%的10%=11%)再输(110%-11%),都是剩下99%,公式是(1+10%)*(1-10%)=99% 损失了1%的本金!/ V b9 v+ S$ I. K, d, g O
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玩200手,输100次赢100次,用10%下注,(1+10%)^100 * (1-10%)^100=36.6% 损失了65.4%的本金!玩越多手,输的越多。
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这个实验说明,使用永远不会破产的注码,虽然永远也输不完,但是就算玩一个不输不赢的游戏,也会一直越输越多。4 ^: ^. S4 d$ C% E! c2 n5 k
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接下来,大家都知道我们玩一个+EV的游戏,赢的会比输的多,+1%的游戏,就是200手里面赢101手输99手的意思,那么如果用我们永远不会破产的注码来打,会不会赚钱呢?
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玩200手,输99次赢101次,用10%下注,(1+10%)^101 * (1-10%)^99=44.7373% 比0和的好点,但是依然不会赢。+ ?$ L6 } h: }4 o8 z6 j
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再来看看如果下5%,(1+5%)^101 * (1-5%)^99=86.051% 比下10%好多了。) ?2 O9 w1 T( k2 t
6 L8 m) y9 I; |3 ]; j6 |7 s如果下1%呢?(1+1%)^101 * (1-1%)^99=101.005% 终于发现能永远不会破产又赚钱的地方了。
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/ _0 D9 \2 [) ?; d- o4 y但是这真的是最好的吗?我帮大家节省时间,我直接把下注的比例跟获利结果,用表格的形式拉出来。) D0 m: z, h7 V9 |, x
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下注比例 本金结果
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0.1% 1.001902; o) j3 a r `: n$ o
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0.2% 1.003606
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0.3% 1.005113
+ S; [- O% J1 J% B8 e" y7 A4 f- `, t, ]$ S( u% x
0.4% 1.006421) f! a& n) [! m3 {* |8 t7 r, h
: O$ M. @ {1 A8 N% ^0.5% 1.007528
9 X6 j* {* b' r( o% m7 y* W# f' c3 i
, c: q* L9 a: _: F* i0.6% 1.008435' @, \, D, U8 A# e" s* F1 Z. [- U
# k4 C, P! Q/ o( Q' C
0.7% 1.009142
B1 b U: v( @% @6 ~2 E* A$ N, q* G; E. t
0.8% 1.009646
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0 \) S3 X+ G0 o3 o0.9% 1.009949
) H# T' L, Y& Y) T( k5 {/ B! v* k, v
1.0% 1.01005
/ S. w4 N% r+ R2 w1 p5 l
( o7 C6 k+ X9 O t# ~' |( w1.1% 1.009949
# r6 h8 x, d7 ?. L T; m6 K7 @
3 }8 D6 ~+ [; |' q6 p1.2% 1.009646 [5 K" \+ I6 @, r2 S/ q! R7 x( V c5 }1 D
7 ]& b( n3 |8 `0 u
1.3% 1.009142& b. O: S: j/ X) |% k; t. S
9 \" |; ~ }. t o( E
1.4% 1.008435
+ f0 i9 y% n# t7 \, y* P1 J& X; s+ A2 @ f
1.5% 1.007528
1 x5 w+ e7 V: T$ r) ^& V# d% x. S
4 i9 c2 [3 r: H2 f1.6% 1.00642/ G8 ]' @! \" Z' u; y# P( ^
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1.7% 1.0051125 q3 x2 B# J$ t( P
# r2 d; I& X: a6 c/ }
1.8% 1.003605
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! b/ _2 L" _& Y- W N1.9% 1.0019
9 v) w. t* v: j3 l6 v5 y
5 ]- D% }6 a g& e( [- j/ w4 u2 F2.0% 0.9999979 m+ T/ N3 O! k. K+ c
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2.1% 0.997899
9 h! ~) ` S! m+ g: w7 @+ m$ y! f; m& ?7 p; y9 `1 W8 y
2.2% 0.995605
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2.3% 0.993118
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0 w' A6 B" C9 ^1 e5 B: Z7 v" ^2.4% 0.990439! S* ^; D; f* Z: t
6 X$ ~/ Y4 A8 q. h
2.5% 0.987569$ `1 r8 l+ m" q, l
J3 Y0 k- z/ J, D, |1 h
2.6% 0.98451
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2.7% 0.981264
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2.8% 0.9778337 ^5 `$ ~/ n5 F) [6 y# `( Z! _
+ L$ r, T! `1 k( ]+ K" \# i
2.9% 0.974219
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3.0% 0.9704248 b' d0 x: p6 f6 \
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从上表可以得到一些结论:8 \: }0 K/ _! v$ g; c
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1. 面对赢101次输99次EV+1%的游戏来说,下注在0%以上2%以下,才会有获利" I1 N* ]/ D: ]/ l% F0 W a3 h
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2. 面对赢101次输99次EV+1%的游戏来说,注码在1%的时候,得到的获利是最高的,下的越小赚的越少,下的越大也赚的越少!9 h7 r) R |8 t! C. P
: `5 ~2 [7 l. y3 _, o+ J1 i3. 每一次下注之后都要精准的计算剩下的资金,严格按照比例下注,过多过少只要不够准确,都会降低收益,名副其实的刀尖上的舞蹈
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5 F# X1 u* [' m3 r. a凯利这个人,其实只是按照这个原理去推演,发现EV+1%的时候要下本金的1%、EV+2%的时候要下本金的2%...
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. r6 k" M1 ]# E$ C% g, Z: T然而凯利所计算的只是一赔一的条件,其实根据不同赌戏的赔率不同,其实不尽然都是跟EV相同的,但是如果各位自己制作一个简单的excel表,那么自己也可以拉的出来最适合的注码比例。
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以上,希望我能对不懂下注策略的初学优势的博友玩家有所帮助。
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